8-1 WINNER IN THIRD PROFITABLE DAY OUT OF FOUR: Daqman continued his run of good prices when he scored at Kempton last night with Googlette (WON 8-1), following 13-2, 11-2 and 5-1 day on day. He finished in profit on Friday for the third time in four days.
See The Stars! It’s a day of all days, a King George or Cheltenham type day, featuring Long Run, Kauto Star, Master Minded, Overturn and Time For Rupert, to name but a few as they say.
You don’t want me to tell you that these horses will win; you know all that. You want those big Betdaq offers, so that’s where I’m going, with a 14.0 outsider and two jackpot bets at 10.0.
12.50 Haydock You know you’re on a trier in this handicap, since Indian Daudaie is owned by the sponsor, and is better than the bare form, on the trainer’s own admission.
This morning Indian Daudaie (4.5 on Betdaq) flip-flopped with the paper favourite, Arthurian Legend, and, at 1.85 a place, you can get 85% of your win stake back should Ruby Walsh fail narrowly to get the sponsors their money back.
The alternative would be to also back Arthurian Legend, dutching, or as a stakes saver, but last season his win when fresh was followed by two dull efforts before winning again after a two-month holiday.
In these circumstances, and with nothing else being backed, Indian Daudaie seems to be in pole position and I’ll put my neck on the block and go for a hat–trick of lays (after Romulus D’Artaix and Swing Bill) and try to nail Arthurian Legend. Double whammy.
2.10 Ascot (Amlin Chase) Master Minded won this as his first run back last season but this year returned at Aintree a month early, short of his best, and was trounced by Albertas Run, who reversed their Melling Chase form.
And Master Minded, even when at his best, has only a short-head to spare over Somersby (odds-on in running, now 4lb better off) on Victor Chandler Chase form in January.
With improving front-runner Stagecoach Pearl (four wins out of five in 2010) and Arkle fourth, Medermit, also in today’s field, it’s very much a case of whether Master Minded is on song, with his target, the King George, five weeks away.
His three main rivals are all a year younger and all three won on their reappearance. On the other hand, Master Minded is six out of seven on a right-handed course and his Ascot form is 111.
Medermit’s is one run one win, whereas Somersby has been beaten on both visits to the track. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a short-head between Master Minded and Somersby again.
2.30 Haydock Horses aged more than seven are dead wood according to the stats, and there’s no Diamond Harry (2009 winner) among the top weights, so half the field has gone!
It’s never that simple, yet noticeable here that our deletions have not made any inroads into the front of the market, where Robinson Collonges, Global Power, Rival D’Estruval and Dynaste all fit the stats.
Dynaste, from the same Pipe stable, will carry 3lb more than Grands Crus last year when his victory by 10 lengths and 14 set him apart and on the road to World Hurdle and now potentially RSA status.
Like Grands Crus at that stage, Dynaste (at 10.0 on Betdaq) has just a class-2 handicap to his name. Can he, too, make the big leap forward from this race? Upped to 3m for the first time, he is totally unexposed.
And, with the stable’s tearaway Buena Vista in the field (not to mention headstrong Knockara Beau), I think it will be a true test for Dynaste.
Emma Lavelle has had six winners in 10 days, and Highland Valley wins when fresh, so would be a big danger barring the doubt that he wants softer ground. He needs to have improved, since he’s been beaten more than 33 lengths on his two runs out of novice company.
Rival D’Estruval (at 10.0) likes today’s surface and is better off with Across The Bay at the weights, though he beat that soft-ground McCain horse at Aintree. McCain claims off him to try to tip the scales.
Los Nadis could be anything, having beaten the placed horses a total of 71 lengths in his two Perth successes, but northern form rarely translates to southern big races.
2.45 (Ascot Hurdle) This prize is usually reserved for the greats: Baracouda, Monet’s Garden, Hardy Eustace.
Nicky Henderson landed back-to-back wins with Chomba Womba and Zaynar, but Zaynar was beaten trying to do the double last year.
Oscar Whisky looks an able substitute on his Champion Hurdle third to Hurricane Fly and subsequent defeat of Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle.
He was more than 10 lengths ahead of Overturn in the Champion Hurdle, and McCain’s Scottish Champion has yet to win higher than Class 2 or a Grade-2 handicap, so his receipt of 8lb today may not be enough.
It can be argued that Overturn is unexposed at today’s trip but, equally, he will surely have to change his front-running style to be effective.
3.05 Haydock (Lancashire Chase) We have a mini-Gold Cup here in a race Kauto Star (four wins) has made his own. But he’s giving three years and upward to a star-studded field, which includes his 2011 ‘gold’ conqueror, Long Run.
Under the conditions of the race, Weird Al has no chance off a mark 18lb behind Long Run, and was pulled up in the big one at Cheltenham, but he took Time For Rupert’s scalp on his debut for Don McCain in the Charlie Hall and has seemingly been successfully treated for breaking blood-vessels.
Like Hennessy winner Diamond Harry, he’s giving two years start to Long Run, who – in normal circumstances – should have improved in the close season, making him a formidable opponent now and for Cheltenham.
3.20 Ascot Six-year-olds are 4-1 up in this, and I started backing Rileyev last time out after a lack-lustre first run back, while Venetia Williams was so out of form; he ran a reasonable race and this is his first real chance.
At the other end of the handicap, Dan Breen is in my horses-to-follow list after reports that the Arkle seventh (Maghull third) has summered really well.
Anquetta has already seen off King Edmund, Darceys Dancer, Torphichen and Takeroc over CD at the end of last month.
In seemingly a three-horse race – Dan Breen, Anquetta and Rileyev (14.0 this morning) – I will take the top weight for stakes saver.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts ARTHURIAN LEGEND and 5.5pts win (nap) INDIAN DAUDAIE (12.50 Haydock)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win on each DYNASTE and RIVAL D’ESTRUVAL (2.30 Haydock)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 9pts win ANQUETTA and 2.2pts win and place RILEYEV, plus 2.7pts win (stakes saver) DAN BREEN (3.20 Ascot)
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