41.0, 23.0 and 20.0 BETDAQ BETS CAN BEAT THE HYPE: Daqman reckons hype is dictating The Ladbroke market at Ascot today and challenges received wisdom with bets at 23.0 and 20.0 on Betdaq. He also fancies a 41.0 shot to give Big Buck’s a scare.
‘FATHER’ IS MOTHER OF A GAMBLE: Yesterday Daqman forecast the big gamble, Our Father (WON 8-5 from 5-2), and also gave Molotof (WON 2-1) for a profitable day on the Daq.
I’m going against the hyped horses at Ascot. When the surface is soft, you have grounds for taking on the market leaders. They tend to come back to the field, just as any front-runner does.
2.30 Ascot (Long Walk Hurdle): Big Buck’s has so far won only half as many Long Walks as Baracouda but has already equalled his Grade-1 hurdles tally of seven and is unbeaten in 13 starts.
Like the Big Buck’s story, Dynaste’s chasing plans were shelved after his Haydock success and don’t forget that, though Dynaste officially has 16lb to find, his stablemate Grands Crus got within a length and threequarters of Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle in March.
Dynaste (7.4 on the Daq this morning) has won right-handed; Big Buck’s has only ever raced left-handed. But Big Buck’s has won on heavy; Dynaste on no worse than good to soft. Cross Kennon (a massive 41.0 on Betdaq) is the mud-lover of the race and ran fourth to Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle with the good ground against him.
His hurdles form on soft or heavy is 121121. Can he close the gap on Big Buck’s on his favoured surface? My 1-2-3: Big Buck’s, Cross Kennon, Dynaste.
3.05 Ascot (Silver Cup): Nothing of a double-figure age has won in the race’s seven-year history and, in the last five, nothing above 10st 12lb., though the Pipes are three from seven.
Favourites have a poor record, with just the one winner, back in 2001, successes since then including 33-1, 25-1 and 12-1 (the last three renewals).
The Minack was on my horses to follow list way back, when the vibes from Ditcheat were very strong and he’s won four times on the soft. If he can’t sink the favourites hoodoo, I don’t know what can after his easy home defeat of Benbane Head at Wincanton.
The likely improver is Requin (10.5), with the Victor Dartnall team in great form this season. Goes well fresh; the yard excels over 3m-plus, and Requin got 2m 6f over hurdles, which suggests he has plenty of stamina for this. My 1-2-3 The Minack, Requin, Reve De Sivola.
3.35 Ascot (The Ladbroke): Four-year-olds have still to make the breakthrough in this race – in the last four years, 15 have tried and failed including a Pipe favourite – yet Paul Nicholls runs two today, including the top weight, Brampour, and Edward O’Grady travels one over from Ireland, Sailors Warn, to be ridden by Tony McCoy.
As I said earlier in the week, running Brampour keeps the same stable’s Prospect Wells on an eye-catching weight mark but, at the same time, Ditcheat may be getting a Christmas card from Don McCain, since his heavy-ground winner Desert Cry is also compressed to a handy level.
Brampour came to prominence when winning over CD in October but is 20lb higher here off 159, and had to be driven out to beat two 130-rated horses to win the Greatwood. The handicapper raised those two 6lb and 5lb
Yes, the Harry Derham 7lb helps. Yes, Brampour ran above himself when third to Grandouet at Cheltenham, but it remains to be seen whether he can reproduce that form only a week later.
Even if he does, he is officially badly in with Marsh Warbler, who ran up to Grandouet at Haydock in November.
And why Ditcheat wanted Prospect Wells weight compressed is easily seen in collateral form with Steps To Freedom, which gives him weight to find with Sailors Warn.
So all the signs are that, if there is to be a four-year-old winner, it will be Sailors Warn, though he is 9.8, the same price as Brampour, in offers on Betdaq, as I write. Brampour was ninth when Sailors Warn was sixth in the Triumph Hurdle.
Via Galilei has, strictly, a stone turnaround for half a length with Brampour on October’s form, which brings in Gibb River, a head behind Via Galilei at Sandown under David Bass. Barry Geraghty now takes over and is unbeaten on the gelding.
But don’t overlook the seeming Henderson second string, Rajdhani Express (23.0), who blew up for lack of fitness in that Sandown race.
Similarly, though in fact the regular rider is currently banned, Richard Johnson could make a difference to Alarazi, who will love the conditions and is 6lb better on their Imperial Cup one-two with Via Galilei, yet 20.0 on the Daq.
Those who will love the mud are Alarazi, Rajdhani Express, Sailors Warn, Desert Cry and Marsh Warbler. I reckon them in that order.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.5pts win and place CROSS KENNON (2.30 Ascot)
BET 6.7pts win (nap) THE MINACK, plus 2.1pts win and place REQUIN (3.05 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.4pts win SAILORS WARN, 1.5pts win and place ALARAZI and 1.3pts win and place RAJDHANI EXPRESS (3.35 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Big Buck’s (2.30 Ascot) and The Minack (3.05 Ascot)
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