2011 ENDS WITH JACKPOT HAT-TRICK BID: Daqman has landed his last two jackpot races with wins from Le Beau Bai (WON 10-1) and Unaccompanied (WON 100-3)). Today he has three jackpot bets between two races at Newbury.
WILL JANUARY SEE THE SAME BIG 10-1 WINNERS? Daqman’s January jackpots produced Blazing Bailey (WON 10-1), West End Rocker (WON 10-1) and two more at 6-1 and 5-1. He’ll go for ‘same again’ in the New Year. Don’t miss them!
Wake up to reality! It’s 7.30 this morning and what have you got for the 3.40 Newbury: the proud Pricewise boast of 20-1 Secret World and 10-1 Tenor Nivernais is no more with the bookies.
Secret World is generally 12-1 and 14-1, Oddschecker showing 12-1 with one bookie (Paddy Power) who had been quoted for value, 16-1 with the other; Tenor Nivernais is 7-1 with most, 13-2 in two places.
What value now the declaration beneath the odds compilation on the Pricewise spread: ‘The (following) bookmakers guarantee to lay their prices for at least a short period this morning’.
2.05 Newbury (Hallowe’en Trophy) Criqtonic is out, so won’t be following in the hoofprints of the then four-year-old Kauto Star (the 2004 winner).
In any event, I was already convinced that Walk On’s jumping and stamina would win the day in the conditions. Unfortunately, he is 2.8 after Criqtonic’s defection and yesterday was a hard lesson (will I never learn!) not to go in heavy at short prices on ground of that description, or nearly so.
And he has For Non Stop in receipt of 7lb and representing the form of top-flight Al Ferof; they were first and second din the prestigious Henry V111 novice chase at Sandown.
2.20 Warwick There have been no winners of a double-figure age; nine-year-olds have taken the last three, and are four out of six, so experience counts for a lot. The favourite hasn’t won since 2004.
But, despite the stats, the winner of this has got to get past Trigger The Light, a Warwick specialist who will love the conditions; if a younger horse beats him, it might be Causing Chaos (12.0 on the Daq as I write).
I always sit up and take notice when marathon man Nigel Twiston-Davies steps a young horse up in trip, in this case for his chasing debut.
This must have been the game all along and, though he lacks experience, you get the feeling you won’t see 12.0 again over fences.
2.35 Newbury (Mandarin Chase) This is farcical, naming this race the Mandarin, one of the great races of old named after the first ever winner of the Hennessy.
We can only hope that, in its present form, it becomes a test for young stayers who might line up in next year’s Hennessy, so we hope for the executive’s sake that either Ray Nacarado or Ballyegan wins it.
Ballyegan, who misses the novice handicap for this, has shown his stamina on the Towcester hill and is with a another marathon-man trainer, Bob Buckler.
CD-winner Rey Nacarado ran second in the Southern National at Fontwell and Quotica De Poyans is not out of it, despite top weight, but deteriorating ground would gift it to Ballyegan, a cracking 9.0 as I write.
3.05 Newbury (Challow Novices’ Hurdle) Only once in the decade has any winner been priced higer than 5-1 at SP; only twice above 3-1.
In any case, it looks a straight fight between Top Of The Range and Fingal Bay, with Top Of The Range the underdog and unlikely to topple four-time-winner Fingal Bay
3.40 Newbury Front-running four-year-old Tenor Nivernais ran away with a class-3 race at Haydock a fortnight ago but that was in a bog and it’s cost him a monster 17lb hike in the ratings.
He ran out of steam when trying similar tactics, well behind Ubi Ace at a higher level in a Listed at Sandown. There’s no denying he’s improved but Tenor will have to hit a soprano note, stepped back up – to class 2 – as well as being hiked in the ratings.
Nicky Henderson is three-handed, with Lifestyle similarly raised in class and up in the ratings, with any further rain a stopper.
The novice Secret World is 5lb out of the handicap but the claim is off First In The Queue, 9lb higher for a class-3 Cheltenham success and another who wants drying ground.
Olofi hasn’t won for two years; he looked good, running second to Brampour at Cheltenham, but flattered like that in a Listed on today’s course a year ago.
Rigidity ran up to Raya Star, steered by a boy at Ascot. Raya Star having placed in the Gerry Feilden, that makes the lightly-raced Rigidity a hotter four-year-old here than Tenor Nivernais if he can reproduce that, with Aidan Coleman now back in the saddle.
Michael Byrne claims off Rigidity’s stablemate, Ruler Of All, who is difficult to assess on his defeat of an Irish Grand National winner over hurdles.
Celestial Halo is giving weight to all; and Dunraven Storm’s winning form is on a sound surface.
In these circumstances, where every horse has something to prove for different reasons, Pricewise was right to go for the bigger prices.
It’s one hour later (8.30 am) than my Oddschecker check – see intro – and Paddy Power has restored Secret World to 20-1; that suggests the thumbs-down. He’s a similar offer on Betdaq.
The Daq ‘book’ of offers is 111% against the best bookie at 117%: Ruler For All, Celestial Halo and First In The Queue have got the elbow in the exchanges.
Rigidity is the Daq value, 9.6 as a write, though 6-1, 13-2 and 7-1 with bookmakers, and he is the form horse of the race on his Ladbroke second.
The tough guy of the race, if slog comes to slog, is ex-Irish chaser Torphichen at 13.0. We know he likes the ground and is thrown in on his old hurdles form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win TRIGGER THE LIGHT and 1.8pts win CAUSING CHAOS (2.20 Warwick)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win (nap) BALLYEGAN (2.35 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.4pts win RIGIDITY and 2.6pts win TORPHICHEN (3.40 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Walkon (2.05 Newbury), Fingal Bay (3.05 Newbury), Hurraboru (3.30 Uttoxeter).
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