THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman took his profit to 59 points in three days, thanks to Jamarjo (WON 5-2) yesterday, following Countess Comet (WON 28-1) on Thursday and Dark Castle (WON 6-5, nap) on Wednesday. His naps are 16 points up on the week.
SATURDAY JACKPOT KING: The Saturday king started 2012 where he left off last year when he continued his jackpot run with Hold Fast (WON 7-2), following Le Beau Bai (WON 10-1) and Unaccompanied (WON 10-3).
It’s Kiss and Kist for me. The weather has messed me about this morning hanging fire on the Kempton Park inspections, so I shall nap at Lingfield: the money is coming for Kiss A Prince (12.25), with a proper jockey and the blinkers back on. Fancy throwing a double with Kist? (One hundred and eighty! Get your hankey out).
1.40 Kempton: Six-year-olds win this every time; two out of three were top weights, so there seems no particular barrier to Hit The Headlines, who has Captain Sunshine to overcome.
2.00 Warwick (Edward Courage Cup): Every winner of this has carried 11st 5lb or less and Educated Evans’ 11lb rise may put this out of his reach.
Marodima ran away with a Fontwell race on Thursday but front-runner Roi De Rose (5.7 on the Daq this morning) may be a match for him in first-time blinkers and is the back-and-lay bet of the day.
2.15 Kempton: No favourites have won in the six years of this race’s history, with SPs ranging from 3-1 to 50-1. I’m expecting improvement from Carabinier.
2.50 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle): Horses aged five, six and seven have won every running of this since 1988, though some years the race was 2m and some years it wasn’t even at Kempton.
But it’s the same story in the four years since it return to Kempton: three aged six and one aged seven have scored, with 11st 2lb the maximum weight carried.
All four winners came from the top level: they had won or been placed in a Class-1 handicap hurdle or a Graded hurdle or chase. This speaks volumes for Well Regarded, fourth to
Fingal Bay in a Grade-2 hurdle at Cheltenham, Act Of Kalanisi and Rajdhani Express, but Swincombe Flame, Ohio Gold, Drumshambo and Eastlake (freshened up for this) are on the upgrade.
Act Of Kalanisi returns to a more suitable trip but now has Busker Royal breathing down his neck on Ascot form, so has to improve again.
Drumshambo should get the trip on breeding but you’d be much more certain of Ohio Gold (Flemensfirth) and the one most likely to benefit from the step up in trip is the Presenting gelding Rajdhani Express, out of a Cadoudal mare.
As a Listed winner, Swincombe Flame seems to bring the class to this and has moved to the front of the market this morning. A drifter is Rajdhani Express but I give him one last chance (tongue tied first time and on better ground) to spring a surprise at 22.0, the sort of thing that has the wily N Henderson chuckling over breakfast for days hence.
3.05 Warwick: This race has produced some decent youngsters, among them Carruthers. Emma Lavelle is two wins from two runners in the last three years, and her Highland Lodge looks a worthy favourite, with the runner-up franking the form of his Haydock win.
3.40 Warwick (Classic Chase): Those out of the handicap (from Fredo down the card) and those with 11st 2lb or more are equally disadvantaged, according to the stats. Hey Big Spender has never won off such a high mark.
The race often prompts Grand National speculation, particularly last year with West End Rocker, who made it back-to-back wins with outsiders (10-1 and 18-1) for the Alan King yard.
King runs Blazing Bailey who has to bounce back but usually comes good at this time of year – has scored five in January, two in February – though no past winner came on to take this from the Welsh National. Did he leave today’s prize behind in the mud at Chepstow only 18 days ago?
David Pipe has two big chances: Sona Sasta ran up to Le Beau Bai before that one won the Chepstow marathon, though is 19lb higher than his last winning mark; Faasel ran fabulous races in the Spring, second in both the Kim Muir and Sandown Gold Cup, despite top of the ground.
Front-runners Fortification and Strongbows Legend look too high in the handicap to seriously consider for back-and-lay purposes. I can’t see them lasting long enough.
There’s nothing in his breeding to suggest that On Borrowed Wings will get the trip; Bench Warrant is a bridesmaid; Morning Moment is 8lb out of the handicap; Miko De Beauchene is yesterday’s horse; Fredo was lucky to gain his only win over fences; Hello Bud is 14 now.
Hello Bud’s stablemate, Major Malarkey, has Paddy Brennan back on board for the first time since his last win in a big novice chase. He was fifth when Faasel was second in the Sandown Gold Cup in April.
My short list is Blazing Bailey, Faasel, Major Malarkey and Neptune Equester, who has abundant stamina, and has won over the tough fences at Haydock and Wetherby.
I’ll shy away from a Welsh National runner who would have lightning strike three times in a row for Alan King – just a saver in case – and I don’t think the Neptune Equester form is that strong. I’m back with the marathon-winning stables of Pipe (8.8 Faasel) and Twiston-Davies (9.4 Major Malarkey) but it’s an open race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.25pts win (nap) KISS A PRINCE (12.25 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win HIT THE HEADLINES (1.40 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win CARABINIER (2.15 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win ROI DE ROSE and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) MARODIMA (2.00 Warwick)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.6pts win SWINCOMBE FLAME and 1.4pts win and place RAJDHANI EXPRESS (2.50 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 3.8pts win FAASEL and 3.5pts win MAJOR MALARKEY, and 1pt win (stakes saver) BLAZING BAILEY (3.40 Warwick)
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