4-1 NAP AND 9-2 WINNER: Daqman named two winners from the three races he bet in yesterday: Carrickboy (nap WON 4-1) and Cotillion (WON 9-2). Today he tries to get over the 100-point profit mark in his current jackpot sequence after winners at 10-1 (twice), 9-2, 7-2, 10-3, 9-4 and 5-4 put him on 99.
1.10 Haydock A small field but both Diamond Harry (2010) and My Way De Solzen (2007) beat only three others to become strong favourites at Cheltenham (Solzen won the Arkle).
1.45 Haydock (Champion Hurdle Trial) Rooster Booster (2004) finished second in the Champion in March, after winning this, and Afsoun (2007) third. Inglis Drever (2005) won the World Hurdle.
2.20 Haydock Stow is a winner over the distance; he loves soft ground and his stable is in cracking form: 7.0 looks big on Betdaq this morning, with blinkers applied for the first time. He won on his only previous start at Haydock.
The 16 and 17 furlong winners High Ransom and Reindeer Dippin still have to prove themselves at 3m, while Mister Marker has won only once in almost two years and that off a 10lb lower mark. Tippering is a maiden.
2.35 Ascot As well as Stow, I’m backing another Venetia Williams, Ciceron; one or other – or both – will go close. Ciceron represents top-class handicap form, and there are ‘ifs and buts’ about the others in his race.
Smad Place has been off with injury; A Bridge Too Far is a bridesmaid, and Pateese is easy to back this morning.
2.45 Wincanton I’ve been waiting for Paul Nicholls to step Billy Merriott up in trip. He chooses to do so on the horse’s handicap debut, with Ryan Mahon taking off another 3lb.
There was money this morning for Shuil Royale, so I’ll need to have a stakes saver.
3.10 Ascot (Victor Chandler Chase) Master Minded and Twist Magic have dominated this for Ditcheat. Now the same stable’s Al Ferof and its championship rival’s Finian’s Rainbow take the big leap from novice-chase glory.
Are they that good? Both Master Minded and Twist Magic had already won all-aged Grade-1 chases. In today’s race that accolade applies only to Forpadydeplasterer, but he’s on a losing run of 11 races.
All previous winners of this were aged eight or younger; today’s race has four horses aged 10, theoretically past their peak, including Gauvain. Only Al Ferof and Somersby fit the age stats.
So it is that what is billed as an obvious duel between the front pair in the market is in fact a wide-open contest on past results and stats. What is missing is worthwhile collateral form.
There is only threeparts of a length between Finians Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking on Kempton running. Only around four lengths separate Gauvain and Somersby but that was over a different distance, and Somersby had beaten him (and I’m So Lucky) over today’s trip earlier.
Finians Rainbow was two-and-a-half lengths in front of Oiseau De Nuit at Kempton over Christmas but Oiseau De Nuit had earlier that month been beaten in a handicap and was behind Wishfull Thinking in November.
But the problem with the slide-rule approach is not only shortage of collateral form but you simply don’t know with novices how much they are improving.
Handicappers, playing with computers, whose job it is to guesstimate the difference between horses give Finians Rainbow an official chase rating of 157, where Somersby is 166, and Gauvain and Wishfull Thinking (has had two wind ops this season) are on 162.
That’s a gap easily bridged by an improver but the snag with Finian’s Rainbow is that he makes himself vulnerable, racing from or near the front. So do Wishfull Thinking and Forpadydeplasterer. Are they going to cut each other’s throat?
There is no evidence (yet) for Al Ferof being better than these, though he could be, and I’ll take Somersby (cheekpieces first time), only narrowly beaten by Master Minded in the race last year (pair well clear) and a stodgy horse who must have a strong race. He should get it.
3.30 Haydock (Peter Marsh Chase) A slog which all ages and all weights win; but rarely the favourite (one in 10).
Pearlysteps seemed booked for second over CD in the Tommy Whittle but fell at the last. According To Pete (third in this two years ago) and Bold Ransom have shot up the handicap and Consigliere tries a new trip.
Consigliere’s form over 22 furlongs is 4th (beaten 25 lengths), 10th (beaten 52), and 16th (beaten 101) so he still has to prove his stamina. He was easy to back this morning.
It’s around two or more years since wins from Take The Breeze, The Sawyer and Mon Mome. King Fontaine and Crescent Island prefer better ground.
But The Sawyer will race off a mark lower than for three years, came back to form last time out and is buzzing at the moment. He’s won six races in January. Don’t let a claiming rider put you off; they have won three of the last four Peter Marsh’s.
But the claimer star is surely Harry Denham, whose 7lb drops Take The Breeze into the lightweights and, like The Sawyer, he loves heavy ground.
DAQMAN’S BET
BET 3.3pts win STOW (2.20 Haydock)
BET 4pts win CICERON (2.35 Ascot)
BET 5.4pts win (nap) BILLY MERRIOTT and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) SHUIL ROYALE (2.45 Wincanton)
BET 3.2pts win SOMERSBY and 1pt win (stakes saver) AL FEROF (3.10 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.4pts win on each THE SAWYER and TAKE THE BREEZE (3.30 Haydock)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
