McCOY CAN ROCK BACK TO THE BIG TIME: Jackpot king Daqman, the only rival to Pricewise, forecasts a back-from-injury big-race win for Tony McCoy on Galaxy Rock at Doncaster. He also has jackpot bets in Cheltenham and Leopardstown handicaps on a day of fantastic Betdaq offers.
2.05 Cheltenham Paul Nicholls does not appear on the 10-year record for winning this race, and he doesn’t seem to expect a breakthrough today.
He is ‘not confident’ that Poquelin is at peak; tries a trip with Woolcombe Folly; and ‘has his suspicions’ about the form of Aerial’s Ascot romp.
If you then take out the old boy’s, Hell’s Bay and Tamarinbleu – winners of this are aged eight or nine (9 out of 10) – you’re looking at one of the bottomweights.
Billie Magern seems to have lost his way; Chance Du Roy is up the handicap; and I find The Giant Bolster a flatterer.
But Araldur (10.0 on Betdaq as I write) is off a very good mark if he can recapture his old chase form; he was well behind Aerial at Cheltenham but was not punished after a blunder, and he’d looked more like his old self at Wetherby before that.
2.35 Cheltenham (Cotswold Chase) A ‘B-side’ Gold Cup, with the official handicapper’s shock verdict to a horse that hasn’t won for two years: 172 Tidal Bay, 166 Diamond Harry, 165 Captain Chris, 156 Time For Rupert.
Tidal Bay has been runner-up in this but it will need a classic Ruby Walsh ride to overcome his quirks and produce a springheeled late run from an 11-year-old. I can’t back him but this is how I see his principal opponents:
Diamond Harry is a ‘glass’ horse these days; we’ve seen him only twice in 20 months. Time For Rupert’s trajectory seemed to turned down on itself, though he does like Cheltenham. And Captain Chris showed in the King George that he struggles at today’s trip. So it’s Tidal Bay’s big chance; he won’t get it at Cheltenham but the allowance he gets here has to be used up, every ounce.
2.45 Leopardstown (Boylesport Hurdle) Plan A and Master Carter were separated by a short head at Limerick but that was the first run back for Master Carter, who was not disgraced in the Triumph Hurdle last March: 13.5 on Betdaq this morning.
Another five-year-old, What A Charm, was winning the Fred Winter at that time: he could set up a fabulous double for Nina Carberry, who rides Organisedconfusion in the Leopardstown Chase: 14.0 charms me.
Not since Adamant Approach (2002) has the winner carried more than 10st 11lb, and 10-3 to 10-9 traps seven of the last eight.
In that weights parameter is yet another five-year-old, Scottish Boogie, who has a favourite’s chance. The snag is that ‘Boogie’ is all of a heap on December form with Cass Bligh, Citizenship, Cothrom Na Feinne, Strain of Fame and Staying Article.
2.50 Doncaster (Great Yorkshire Chase) Is anything new? In 1833 US president Andrew Jackson shut down the nation’s main bank during a period known as the ‘Bank War.’
Former top novice Aiteen Thirtythree has to be one of your bankers in the Town Moor war today, now they have found his problem (ulcers) and hopefully cured it, while the banks continue to give us a pain in what’s bringing up the rear.
The snag with Aiteen Thirtythree is his weight: eight from eight Great Yorkshire winners have carried 11st 2lb or less.
The Nicholls beast likes to get on with it and I would expect him to be front rank with Fruity O’Rooney, Shalimar Fromentro, Qianshan Leader and Wayward Prince.
Wymott has to bounce back in first-time blinkers, and back-to-form Calgary Bay, a CD winner, has to give weight all round.
It leaves me with a short-list of Aiteen Thirtythree, Shakalakaboomboom, Galaxy Rock and well-handicapped Nikola, of which Galaxy Rock – if forgiven his Welsh National run – is very progressive and likely to land A P McCoy his first big win back from injury.
3.20 (Leopardstown Chase) Dessie Hughes, who has won this twice in the last three seasons, saddles three today. His Rare Bob tries to repeat the 2011 success, 3lb higher though tailing off the last twice.
The Hughes lightweights Stonemaster (first time blinkers) and Jewel Of The West (has won only on a sound surface) are also risky.
You’d think Irish Grand National winner Organisedconfusion would find this on the short side but he’d won over 2m 1f two months before Fairyhouse. As an improving seven-year-old, the hike in the weights may not stop him either.
This race has been won off 11st 10lb three times in the last five years, and the 15.5 offers on Betdaq as I write are quite outstanding for Nina Carberry’s mount.
She could be battling it out at the finish with Katie Walsh (Seabass), though Grade-3 hurdle runner-up Stephanie Kate must have a great chance on her second to Knockfierna in November.
Montan, fourth in the Paddy Power here over Christmas, will be more at home at today’s trip and, at 10.5, rates my second bet of the race.
3.40 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle): What can you say. It’s one for the heart, not the pocket, as we expect to see Big Buck’s make it 15 in a row.
Mourad, five lengths off him in the World Hurdle, just doesn’t have the panache of Paul Nicholls’ giant but we want something to make a race of it, just to see that majestic surge that has made Big Buck’s indomitable.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20pts); 2pts win and place ARALDUR (2.05 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.4pts win MASTER CARTER and 2.3pts win WHAT A CHARM, plus 0.7pts win (stakes saver) SCOTTISH BOOGIE (2.45 Leopardstown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.6pts win SHAKALAKBOOMBOOM and 3.5pts win GALAXY ROCK, plus 1pt win (stakes saver) AITEEN THIRTYTHREE (2.50 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win MONTAN, and 2pts win and place ORGANISEDCONFUSION (3.20 Leopardstown)
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