BACK THE KING OF THE EIDER AND TAKE ‘ENORMOUS’ 13.5 AT LINGFIELD: Saturday value wizard Daqman analyses the big races of the day and comes up with an ‘enormous’ 13.5 at Lingfield and rates the Irish raider ‘king’ of the Eider. He has three jackpot races, where he raises his stake to win 30 points, as opposed to the usual 20, at Betdaq offers available at the time.
2.00 Kempton (Adonis Hurdle) Two Triumph Hurdle scorers and a fourth plus a second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. That’s the Cheltenham record of winners of this race in the last five years; the other winner in that time didn’t run at the festival.
Two trainers dominated in the five runnings: no surprise that they were Nicky Henderson (3) and Paul Nicholls (2), nor that today they meet head to head with two major contenders, Une Artiste and Dildar.
But they’ve had to give way in the Betdaq market to Triumph Hurdle favourite Sadler’s Risk, a Group and Listed performer on the Flat noted for his front running style.
So what confidence when he ran over CD in January and sauntered round behind the clear leaders before picking them off by 17 lengths, hardly off the bridle!
Dildar also had Group and Listed form in France and should be much sharper than for his modest hurdles debut at Taunton, though his yard is in moderate form right now. The snag with four-time winner Une Artiste is the ground and the trainer suggests she is here to qualify for the Fred Winter.
Is shall be backing Philip Hobbs’ Planet Of Sound later on, so I shall cover my Planet Of Sound stake with a bet on Sadler’s Risk. When a trainer has two with a clear advantage, and both are odds against, I like to assume that he will get one winner.
2.15 Lingfield William Carson gets off Aldermoor to partner The Strig but Sulis Minerva made him look one paced over CD last month. Diamond Vine should also beat him on their running over the same CD a week earlier.
But Diamond Vine is badly off with Nubar Boy (another CD race) and Nubar Boy with Picansort (yet another). Hatta Stream has a pull on previous conquerors Aldermoor and Haadeth.
Picansort (11.0 on Betdaq as I write) won first time in a visor and it’s back on now after a break, hoping he has forgotten enough to be sharpened up again; Hatta Stream is enormous at 13.5.
2.30 Kempton Punters usually get this about right with only one winner bigger than 9-2 in the last decade, and then only 7-1.
The race is only class 3 so hardly likely to be a Cheltenham pointer (eighth in the Jewson is the winner’s best shot this century).
3.05 Kempton The last winner of this to do well at Cheltenham was La Landiere (2003 Cathcart). Philip Hobbs has won it three times in the decade with horses so rated that they carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 12lb. Clever stuff Mr Hobbs.
But Hobbs is hobbling winnerwise at the moment (1-38). He will be hoping he has turned the corner with Sadler’s Risk (2.00) and Hennessy runner-up Planet Of Sound here.
Michel le Bon is a glass horse, living off a couple of small-field Newbury wins, who let the hype down badly in the Hennessy, and is being asked to bounce back here with the stable under a cloud. It could happen but he is no value.
3.25 Newcastle (Eider Chase) The number of runners in this has dwindled over recent years but the quality of winner is high with future Scottish (2009) and Aintree Grand National heroes (2008) taking the prize.
Coinciding with quality is the weight carried: nothing below the 11st mark has scored since the turn of the century.
Such as Negus De Beaumont (pulled up twice in this) need rain, and plenty of it, before his one pace off a light weight becomes effective. His only win in five years was a four-horse race run nearly a minute slow.
Boris The Blade has only ever won on heavy; Posh Bird is up nearly a stone for a modest success at Catterick; Present M’Lord has won only once in four years and is 12 now and Douglas Julian is a 20f winner suddenly making a big leap up to a marathon trip at the age of 10.
Clearly, on what we know, Morgan Be and Incentivise are best of the sub-11st runners: Incentivise has been dropped 7lb for three outings in the autumn, but the yard is struggling for winners (1-16).
Morgan Be has been placed twice in this race – a poor third last year – and was back to form (Eyre Square behind) on today’s course a month ago. May be thereabouts but unlikely to have the finish at age 12.
Yet the race seems to hinge around Eyre Square’s 4m win at Kelso, when Mister Marker and Captain Americo were third and fourth.
Eyre Square has only 5lb more and neither of those can beat him now at the weights. He has been in the frame on 12 consecutive starts.
When Portrait King won at Punchestown three weeks ago, the trainer was quick to declare that this one needs 4m and, as far as I can see, he is the only improver – even potential improver – in the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win PICANSORT and 2.4pts win HATTA STREAM (2.15 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 6.8pts win (nap) PLANET OF SOUND (3.05 Kempton); stakes saver 5pts win SADLER’S RISK (2.00 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 8pts win PORTRAIT KING and 5.3pts win EYRE SQUARE (3.25 Newcastle)
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