31.0 OUTSIDER IN BID FOR FIVE JACKPOT SATURDAYS IN A ROW: Daqman has scored five big winners on four successive Saturdays at 14-1, 9-1, 7-1, 13-2 and 11-4 (see Archive for last Sunday). Can he land another jackpot today? He has three main bets, one at 31.0.
16 CONSECUTIVE CHELTENHAM LAYS: Daqman is the man who landed 16 lays in a row at the Cheltenham Festival, despite a self-inflicted rule: favourite or forecast favourite (see Library). Check out his stats analysis of this year’s festival from Tuesday to Friday inclusive next week.
It’s all about Aintree today. Ballabriggs, Junior and West End Rocker, from the front ranks of the Grand National market, have their prep races in the North this afternoon.
Despite the big meeting at Newbury, all eyes will be on their trials at Donny and Kelso. Junior is biggest with Betdaq for Aintree ante-post: 17.5 as I write, alongside 14-1 generally with bookmakers but 12-1 with Coral and Hills.
2.05 Newbury: But there is a Grand National outsider at Newbury: Always Waining, who loves a sound surface and is 6lb lower over the minor obstacles at Newbury today than his last hurdles success and has Brendan Powell claiming another 5lb.
It’s a very open race and the favourite, Buck Magic, is too short, since he might bounce for his Wincanton placing after a long absence. The 31.0 Always Waining is far too big, with the offers based on his poor form on soft and heavy ground.
3.10 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup): With one exception – a shock outsider who deadheated – there has been no winner of this going back through the century aged older than eight. And nothing with Woolcombe Folly’s weight, albeit he’s claimed off.
Paul Nicholls won four out of five until Take The Breeze fell last year, and Woolcombe Folly puts his Aerial in the race on a decent weight mark and with Ruby Walsh doing the fine tuning.
Since November, Aerial has already finished in front of Woolcombe Folly, Fine Parchment, Dave’s Dream and Araldur.
But the giant of a horse, Araldur, hasn’t liked the Cheltenham gradients: take away his Prestbury flops and his form over fences is 311142, including a Grade 2 as a novice.
Araldur was the plunge horse before you were out of bed and, by 7 a.m., the 9-1 put up by Pricewise was, in fact, 5-1 with Boylesport. The 6.4 on Betdaq was as good as it gets.
Fix The Rib, Pickamus, Dan Breen and Mad Max are all potential front-runners, and the strong pace will suit both my contenders, Aerial and Araldur, who have won over further than today’s trip.
Fine Parchment won the race last year under an apprentice, and has clearly been aimed at a repeat: saver.
3.25 Doncaster (Grimthorpe Chase). The last big Grand National gamble after success in this race was on the McCain stable’s Cloudy Lane in 2008 but his subsequent National form over three seasons was 6U8.
The 2009 and 2011 winners went on from the Grimthorpe to finish third in the same year’s Scottish Grand National.
Remember, there is no penalty for Aintree for winning this today; and, since the National is as late as April 14 this year, the winner won’t ‘leave the race behind’ here.
On the other hand, most stayers have to be on a trajectory, building up slowly, particularly to the National. West End Rocker has had a long break and may need today’s race.
Though it’s a small field, push will come to shove on the final circuit if Junior gets a lead. Pentiffic and Ikorodu Road are likely to go with him but Benny Be Good is the one best suited to the dry ground.
However, five of the seven horses are separated by only 0.7 points as I write at 8.15 a.m. No bet for me at this stage.
4.10 Kelso: Here he is: Ballabriggs, last year’s controversial National winner who brought us the winter saga of the whips rules that never were. Maybe I should add ‘much good.’
On this fast surface, over this shorter trip, and with Tony McCoy up for the ride, Master Of The Hall should be too good for him today.
4.20 Newbury: Alan King’s yard is suddenly firing in the winners and they have come for Gospel Preacher here. Always an animal of promise, the inference is that – like Romulus D’Artaix yesterday – this one has now got it together at home and is ‘expected’.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1pt win and place ALWAYS WAINING (2.05 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5.5pts win on each AERIAL and ARALDUR, and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) FINE PARCHMENT (3.10 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) MASTER OF THE HALL (4.10 Kelso)
BET (to win 20pts): 5pts win GOSPEL PREACHER (4.20 Newbury)
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