33.0 SHOT TARGETS 200 POINTS JACKPOT PROFIT: Daqman today tips 33.0 and 18.0 shots after landing EIGHT winning jackpot bets this year and 13 since December 3rd, which has brought in 179 points profit. A winner today could top the 200.
CRUSADER LANDS THE NAP: Daqman landed his nap yesterday with Jayne’s Crusader (WON 11-8) and also named Opening Batsman (WON 11-4), both at Wincanton.
2.05 Sandown: Until four years ago, winners of this had a rating on the day from 115 to 121 but the quality seems to have stepped up since then with scorers on 122 (twice) and 128 (twice).
Carrigmorna King has the measure of Glenn Eagas and, through him, Aikideau and Kings Lodge. The same form lines recommend Grove Pride but he seems too high in the handicap.
He has to give weight to Merry King (a tempting 10.0 on Betdaq this morning), who will be brought with a late run by Tony McCoy, and Speed Master (8.8): both are bred to show improvement
2.40 Sandown: Paul Nicholls has taken this five times in the last decade and, along with Ruby Walsh, is on a hat-trick here, with Martys Mission the pick of the Ditcheat entries.
But both Martys Mission and Song Sung Blue have been trying to climb back after long absences: ‘Blue’ has to put two wins together – he’s never done that before – and ‘Marty’ must avoid the bounce from his CD second in February.
I reckon there might be a turn-up: drying ground favours Dovers Hill (12.0 on Betdaq, as I write), who comes to hand in the Spring, with three of his four wins in March and April.
3.15 Sandown (Imperial Cup): Not since the days of Martin Pipe has a class horse from high in the handicap won this, though David Pipe has continued the family tradition of starting a bonus double in this race.
His two winners have been within the same slot as the last eight: maximum weight 10st 13lb. One went on to land the Cheltenham bonus, the other was second.
In fact, if you delete all Pipe winners, there’s been only one success above 10-13 going way back to 1982 (that was Precious Boy in 1994).
Since 2006, Imperial success has been off an official rating between 124 and 135, and Pipe has Master Of Arts right on the edge off 11st on 135.
He’s the right age – eight of the last 10 winners have been four, five or six years of age – and, though inexperienced for the race, is on my short list with Celtus, Devil To Pay, Ile De Re, Paintball, Ted Spread, and the consistent Sire De Grugy, who may just have a couple of pounds too much.
Celtus isn’t far behind him on Spring 2011 form and Nicky Henderson has him back hurdling after a wind op: the 18.0 this morning is too big on his current home form.
I’m not sure Devil To Pay can turn round the Taunton placings with Sire De Grugy, even on better terms, and I fancy Ile De Re will need big improvement out of the novice ranks in the hurly-burly of this tough test.
Paintball is a massive offer at 33.0 as a Cheltenham class-2 winner who has been rested, after a breathing op, by a stable which has been in good form this year.
Paul Nicholls doesn’t win this but Ted Spread was a Group performer on the Flat and is progressive over hurdles. I rate this a modest field and I’ll go for five-year-old improvers Ted Spread and Paintball and the other wind-op horse, Celtus.
3.50 Sandown (NH Flat-race Final): This looks like a pinstickers’ race but the stats say not: with one exception, punters backed the winner to a starting price of between 4-1 to 17-2 in the last seven seasons.
Anthony Honeyball seems to have the prize in the bag with two at the front of the market at 6.4 and 6.8, Taradrewe and Eleven Fifty Nine, and the stable has already beaten the favourite, Call me A Star, at Kempton.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points): 1.8pts win and place DOVERS HILL (2.40 Sandown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.8pts win SPEED MASTER, 3.3pts win MERRY KING and 1pt win (stakes saver) CARRIGMORNA KING (2.05 Sandown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 7.5pts win TED SPREAD, 1.7pts win CELTUS, plus 1pt win and place PAINTBALL, (3.15 Sandown)
BET 4.8pts win (nap) SAMMY SPIDERMAN (3.25 Ayr)
BET 1.4pts win and place LIGHT FROM MARS (3.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.7pts win ELEVEN FIFTY NINE and 3.4pts win TARADREWE (3.50 Sandown)
BET 2.2pts win LIGHTENING FIRE (5.25 Chepstow)
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