‘RIGHT’ IS WRONG PRICE AT 54.0 FOR THE NATIONAL: Daqman has massive ‘overs’ on the Grand National already ante-post with 60.0 Seabass but he spots another outsider for win-and-place bets at 54.0 on BETDAQ today.
‘SUNNY’ AND JUNIOR HAVE JACKPOT CREDENTIALS: His order in for your finishers list and each-way-handicap bets is:
1 Sunnyhillboy
2 Junior
3 Killyglen
4 Always Right
5 West End Rocker
6 Ballabriggs
7 Synchronised
8 Chicago Grey
9 Seabass.
Good luck!
1.45 Aintree: Cheltenham runners-up have won this two seasons running but this year a Festival winner, Simonsig (took the Neptune), will be hot favourite.
However, Super Duty – 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning – comes out very close to Cinders And Ashes, on a line through Keys to whom he gave weight and a beating at Ascot: when Cinders and Ashes won the Supreme Novices, he beat yesterday’s Aintree winner, Darlan.
Simonsig romped home at Cheltenham but compare his 1.51 to win (one chance) with Super Duty’s offers for a place: 2.5 (three chances).
I’ll stake that place bet to pay for the win bet plus my bet in the Aintree Hurdle and a rare small-stakes accumulator on the day.
2.15 Aintree (Maghull Novices Chase): Two words: Sprinter Sacre! Some 16 of the last 18 winners of this had raced in the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre won it doing handsprings.
2.50 Aintree Hurdle: No outright favourite has won this going back to the last century but only once in the last five years has the winner’s SP been bigger than 6-1.
Oscar Whisky beat Thousand Stars a neck last year, but I gambled on Rock On Ruby, a staying novice narrowly beaten in the Neptune, to improve enough, and be fast enough, to win the Champion Hurdle, despite the shorter trip.
Ruby won. So how can I desert him now, returned to 2m 4f, and not even favourite: 3.6 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.25 Aintree (John Smith’s Chase) Chapoturgeon (hunter chasing) and Marufo (veterans’ chase) come to this with unusual recent form but you can’t be sure Battle Group will act well in blinkers second time they are fitted.
Marufo loves a tight left-handed track and is a tasty 7.8 on BETDAQ, with Chapoturgeon my stakes saver at 2.55.
4.15 Aintree (THE GRAND NATIONAL): Jonjo O’Neill has Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy favoured by the weights but both scored at Cheltenham and only once since 1961 has a festival winner been able to take this prize.
A horse with the National as his target is usually a better bet, though it must be remembered that the race is later this year and there has been a longer gap between Cheltenham and Aintree. I hope it works out for ‘Sunny’, because he is massively well handicapped, as you’ll see.
Age and weight are vital. Aged nine or 10, carrying 10st 6lb to 11st 1lb. Check out my ABC guide on Wednesday (see Archive) when West End Rocker and Rare Bob scored best in my stats survey. On His Own may be too young at seven; Synchronised, Ballabriggs and Neptune Collonges may have too much weight.
The same names win it. McCain, Team Pipe, O’Neill, Elliott and Twiston-Davies have been there, done it, got several tee-shirts.
Lambourn can’t seem to win it these days – including Nicky Henderson (Shakalakaboomboom) who doesn’t train them to get this kind of trip – and his champion-trainer rival Paul Nicholls’ (Neptune Collonges) has a poor record. An Irish horse is often best; they won six out of nine (1999-2007).
Aintree horses are penalised. The handicapper is hard on past success over the National fences or with young upstarts, so Black Apalachi has 7lb more than his official rating; In Compliance 7lb more; On His Own and Mon Mome 5lb more; According To Pete 4lb more.
When the handicapper is kind. On the other hand, he can appear kind when he wants to get highly-rated quality horses into the race, or when he cannot adjust for recent form: so it is that Sunnyhillboy has 10lb less than his rating; Synchronised 7lb less; Giles Cross 6lb; Junior 5lb; Weird Al 5lb; Neptune Collonges 5lb.
Ground like a lawn. This is the finest track of them all, like a lawn. It soaks any rain and usually returns perfect racing conditions. In particular, it will suit Alfa Beat, Always Right, Ballabriggs, Calgary Bay, Cappa Bleu, Deep Purple, Junior, Killyglen, Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges, Neptune Equester, On His Own, Planet of Sound, Postmaster, Shakalakaboomboom, State Of Play, Swing Bill, Sunnyhillboy, Synchronised.
Praying for rain: The rain early in the week encouraged connections of Black Apalachi, Giles Cross, In Compliance, Rare Bob, Seabass, Tharawaat and West End Rocker. But the ground soon dried up and more rain is needed for them today.
Saved for the race: Horses with the National as their sole target build a trajectory of fitness to the race (but have preferably run within the last seven weeks): Ballabriggs, Black Apalachi, Junior, Organisedconfusion and Midnight Haze fit both requirements. Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Killyglen, West End Rocker have also been saved for the race.
A National occasion: 10 of the last 15 winners had won or been in the frame in a National: English, Welsh, Scottish or Irish. The qualifiers are: Always Right, Ballabriggs, Black Apalachi, Cappa Bleu, Giles Cross, Hello Bud, Organisedconfusion, State Of Play, Sunnyhillboy, Synchronised.
Blind chance: Blinkers or a visor are rarely worn by winners of this race, which condemns Junior, Alfa Beat and Viking Blond.
Front to back: Front-runners will give you an exciting ride but are unlikely to last out. Black mark against According To Pete, Becauseicouldn’tsee, Black Apalachi, Deep Purple, Giles Cross, Hello Bud, In Compliance, Seabass, Tatenen, Tharawaat.
Back to front: Horses that sometimes get in rear are at a disadvantage, too: Arbor Supreme, Calgary Bay, Chicago Grey, Organisedconfusion, Synchronised.
VERDICT: I shall be surprised if the winner does not come from a small group of stayers: Always Right (54.0 on BETDAQ as I write), Ballabriggs (16.0), Chicago Grey (25.0), Giles Cross (25.0), Killyglen (19.5), Junior (20.0), Seabass (19.5), Synchronised (10.5), Sunnyhillboy (20.0), West End Rocker (17.0). Check how they go in the market later in the day.
I already have 60.0 Seabass on BETDAQ (to win 100 points) and 17.5 Killyglen (to win 50). I shall have three more bets: Sunnyhillyboy, so well in; Junior because of Tom Scu’s confidence; Always Right as my outsider.
Junior has stable, ground, race-targeting and a lenient mark, and can be handy and take them on in the final half of the last circuit, though blinkers are a black mark; his Flat profile is a worry, too, therefore, his jumping a concern, though Scudamore is very confident of his ability and bullish in his Times interview today.
Always Right narrowly missed out on the Scottish National and was coming to beat Giles Cross in the Grand National Trial at Haydock Park but was running with the choke out; a breathing op will have put him right.
5.05 Aintree: After Rock On Ruby, I’m playing up my winnings again. I had 20-1 Imperial Cup winner Paintball and 7.2 on BETDAQ will do for me here.
Never leave a big meeting without a flutter and, at today’s Aintree showcase, always have one on races other than the National in case you don’t get a look-in there. Rock On Ruby in a winning double with Paintball would be a fine finale to the jumps before I tackle the Guineas trials next week.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 1.9pts win and 5pts place SUPER DUTY (1.45 Aintree)
BET 3.7pts win (nap) ROCK ON RUBY (2.50 Aintree)
WIN-50 JACKPOT: BET 2.6pts win on each JUNIOR and SUNNYHILLBOY, 1pt win and place ALWAYS RIGHT; already ante-post 60.0 SEABASS (to win 100 points) and 17.5 KILLYGLEN (to win 50).
BET 2.9pts win MARUFO and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) CHAPOTURGERON (3.25 Aintree)
BET: 3.2pts win PAINTBALL (5.05 Aintree)
DAQ DOUBLE: BET 3pts win double Rock On Ruby (2.50 Aintree) and Paintball (5.05 Aintree) plus 1pt win accumulator, the same two with Simonsig (1.45 Aintree) and Sprinter Sacre (2.15 Aintree)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
