THE LAST ‘KING’ OF SCOTLAND! Daqman forecasts a mighty marathons hat-trick for an Irish raider in Scotland today, a horse they call ‘King’. But he warns that one of the favourites for Aintree last Saturday that didn’t get very far was ‘massive’ at 19.0 on BETDAQ this morning for this Ayr version.
Portrait of a Northern ace rider. Denis O’Regan, who had dropped out of the limelight since the Howard Johnson glory days (of Tidal Bay’s Arkle and Inglis Drever’s World Hurdle), has had his best season since.
O’Regan completed a top-flight Cheltenham-Aintree hurdles double for Malcolm Jefferson in the Pertemps Final and the Silver Cross with Cape Tribulation.
Now Maurice Phelan, who believes he has a future Aintree Grand National winner in Portrait King, has kept faith with O’Regan, who took over from Davy Condon and followed up the seven-year-old’s Punchestown Grand National trial victory with a gritty fight to land the Eider Chaser at Newcastle in February.
Portrait King, who won one of those on good ground and the other on heavy, has shot up 21lb in the handicap but only 3lb after the O’Regan ride at Newcastle.
He’s had time to recoup with nearly two months’ rest, and he must have a great chance of a unique marathons treble for one so young, in fact attempting to become only the second seven-year-old winner of the Scottish National in 20 years.
At Newbury, the ground deteriorated badly yesterday, with the last race run more than 29 seconds slow, so today’s John Porter and the two Classic trials won’t tell us much and are dangerous to bet in.
2.00 Newbury (John Porter Stakes): Patient, stays focused, determined. Those are the qualities the tiger’s-eye gemstone is said to draw from the tiger.
Yes, you get it all in this column; but who would argue if those attributes were used to describe the super-canny Barney Curley, whose Eye Of The Tiger (19.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is one of only two Group-2 winners on the soft appearing in this race.
‘Tiger’ mugged the odds-on Getaway to earn his; Allied Powers won the Grand Prix at Chantilly. But both wins were in 2010.
And since then Arctic Cosmos has captured a Group 1, the St Leger; Harris Tweed has run second in a Group 2 on the soft, the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, and is clear top-rated today.
Snag is you will have to bet less than 2-1, whichever one of the form horses you choose, and in this ground anything can happen, with Arctic Cosmos unraced on soft and Harris Tweed a front-runner. A fun bet only for me.
2.35 Newbury (Fred Darling Stakes): Best Terms stands out a mile, as Queen Mary and Lowther Stakes winner, but all three-year-olds are the same in one respect: they have to prove they have trained on.
Least likely to have done so is Roger Sez, exploited as a juvenile in nine races, though, like Electrelane, she’s won on the soft. Radio Gaga was third in a good Listed at Newmarket; Switcher was fourth in the Albany.
Because of the mud, the form so far isn’t going to tell us much, and the result today isn’t going to tell us much about the fillies’ Classics.
Have a bit each way on something and have your notebook open at ‘ones to watch on soft ground later in the year.’ Electrelane (19.5 on BETDAQ) has a sporting chance at long odds.
3.10 Newbury (Greenham): Like the Fred Darling, this is unlikely to tell us much about the Classics unless we have the worst summer on record.
Caspar Netscher is fully exposed in a sustained two-year-old career, in which he won the Gimcrack and the Mill Reef. Seldom do they resume where they left off after so much use has been made of them.
Boomerang Bob was second in the Norfolk Stakes, and Bronterre fourth in the Dewhurst (Spiritual Star seventh), just in front of stablemate Trumpet Major, the runaway Craven winner. Bronterre should win but do you want to bet odds on?
3.25 Ayr (Scottish Grand National): Thanks to the presence of Junior, Portrait King (10.5 this morning on BETDAQ) matches the stats for weight carried (10st 9lb maximum in nine years of the last 10).
Another rising star seven-year-old, Harry The Viking, attempting a Paul Nicholls’ National double inside a week, has 3lb more than ‘King’ after a 6lb rise for running second in the four-miler at Cheltenham. And he’s actually better off with the horse he beat, Ikorodu Road, at Doncaster in December.
But Ikorodu Road hasn’t been standing still: he is officially regarded as a 17lb better horse since then, having won at Newbury, and, though lucky to do so, he beat Junior a short head in the Grimthorpe.
However, theoretically, that form means that Junior wins the races today. He’s 5lb better with Ikorodu Road, and the 2010 Ascot Stakes winner on the Flat should be well suited to the Ayr track. He didn’t get far in last Saturday’s National, so no damage done to today’s chance.
Assuming only showers, and good-to-soft ground, Any Currency, highly tried recently, could bounce back (4th 2010 NH Chase). So, too, Be There In Five, third in the same race last season when the subsequent winner of today’s contest was second.
Merigo loves this Scottish National: won in 2010, was narrowly beaten last year, and is another who is not ground dependent.
As those conquerors of the consistent Eider third Captain Americo have risen in the weights, he has stayed more or less stationary between 124 and 127 since November 2010, and has been in the frame every time in eight completed starts. Snag is the 8lb out of the handicap here.
Petitfour is with the right team, and has run in top-class hurdles, but he has only ever beaten three horses home in a steeplechase. Quentin Collonges is an improving novice but still tends to hit a fence or two.
His style of running is suited to Ayr, as is that of Junior, Harry The Viking, Merigo, Fruity O’Rooney and Portrait King. I take Junior, a massive 19.0 on Betdaq this morning, and Portrait King. For my rank outsider, it’s the Malcolm Jefferson novice, Mac Aeda (a massive 45.0 on BETDAQ); how ironic if he is the one to beat Portrait King!
3.45 Newbury Spring Cup: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight; favourites have fallen like nine-pins (1-10 and that one was joint), with winners since 2008 at 14-1, 20-1 and 40-1.
In the conditions, there’s likely to be another shock today: I’ll take Emilio Largo at 15.5 (Cecil doing well; sire gets horses which like extremes of going); but I have to back Captain Bertie (7.0), who would have hit the jackpot for me in the Spring Mile but for an unlucky run; and Dubawi Sound (9.8), said to be working like a blot on the handicap.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 1.1pts win EYE OF THE TIGER (2.00 Newbury)
BET 1.1pts win and place ELECTRELANE (2.35 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.1pts win PORTRAIT KING: 1.6pts win and place JUNIOR; 0.6pts win and place MAC AEDA (3.25 Ayr)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 5pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE; 3.4pts win DUBAWI SOUND; 2pts win EMILIO LARGO (3.45 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) MY FREEDOM (3.50 Thirsk)
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