10-1 JACKPOT WIN WAS DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY 20.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman landed yet another massive-value jackpot bet yesterday when he nominated Fulbright (WON 10-1) at 20.0 from the BETDAQ morning offers in the orange. Almost double the SP odds.
22.0 AND 11.0 ‘LOOSE CANNONS’ IN THE JULY CUP: Today the stats point up 22.0 and 11.0 offers, which Daqman describes as ‘loose cannons’ for the big race of the day, the July Cup. And there are more big BETDAQ deals all day.
Let’s hunt out more sensational BETDAQ value. Just look at yesterday’s six-furlong handicap, in which I nominated Fulbright (20.0 on BETDAQ, won 10-1), Big Note (fourth 26.0 in to 22-1 SP) and Glen Moss (13.5 in to 6-1). More than 18 points of ‘overs’ from just three horses in one race on one site is fabulous value.
Set that alongside the problem of comparing fixed-odds among a swathe of bookies until you get the best quotes, then needing stepping-stone bets across a morass of accounts. Even then, those ‘best quotes’ rarely come up to exchange levels. Look no further than BETDAQ!
1.40 Newmarket: There could be something lurking here: eight of the last 10 winners started 5-1 to 40-1, with only two successful favourites, even though the race invariably goes to the leading yards and the top horses (no winner under 9st 1lb for seven years now).
Soft ground made the difference at Doncaster for Andalieb, earlier fifth to the progressive Fennell Bay on firm. Though the handicapper does a balancing-up act for each horse, it’s still the case that Andalieb has to take three steps up in grade.
Ardmay and Chapter Seven have both won at class-2 level, but it’s more likely that we’ll see improvement from those more lightly raced, Sir John Hawkwood and Compton, whichever advances most on the ground.
Compton was fourth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, his first race of the season and after being gelded, but the extra risk in backing him is that he won first time as a two-year-old, and the impression is that he has to be fresh. I took 18.5 BETDAQ, offers which built in that risk. But I need a saver on Sir John.
2.10 Newmarket: Six of the last eight successful in this had raced just once or twice – all were winners – and two of the last five had been in the frame at Royal Ascot, the last of them trained R. Hannon who has won it three times.
Hannon’s Olympic Glory, Coventry runner-up (Artigiano behind) after winning on the debut at Goodwood, fits all those criteria.
But the ground is a worry at the price for a speed-bred colt and, since Refuse To Bends have more stamina and come good in the autumn, I expect improvement from soft-ground winner Operation Chariot. A massive 14.0 this morning, he seems sure to shorten up.
2.40 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup): Only one winning favourite in seven years, with winners generally from 11-1 to 16-1 at SP, and seven out of eight rated 94 to 105.
Since the top-weight is off 100 today, the class of the race is a few pounds down and, since there’s just 8lb between top and bottom, there must have been more who didn’t make the cut than did.
They could probably have run two Bunbury Cups, which I hope they will with their new money, instead of wasting it on egg-and-spoon races. Perhaps the bottom level could be the Oscar Wilde Stakes.
Newmarket trainers would probably prefer to get rid of the whole thing, since HQ hasn’t won the Cup for 11 years and has only four runners in today’s field.
The stands side has been best at the meeting so far, and four-year-olds win 50% of the time, all of which recommends Jamesie, the Buckingham Palace runner-up, and the seventh horse home that day at Royal Ascot, Belgian Bill, who was drawn 2 in a race with the result by stall 11, 23, 32.
But there’s a standout in the BETDAQ market: last year’s Cambridgeshire runner-up Stevie Thunder at 17.5, compared with 9-1 Corals and 12-1 Ladbrokes.
‘Stevie’ was beaten just three lengths in the Royal Hunt Cup last month, fading out only in the final furlong and today’s 7f and softer ground is just what he wants.
Captain Bertie (14.0), another mile winner, who was behind Stevie Thunder that day, is reunited with Michael Hills and also now has his ground.
The world and his wife will want to be on the Pricewise horse Bonnie Brae, a bête noir of mine (I can’t catch him right but, then, show me a punter who can get Elzie right!).
Jamesie (a bit of a bridesmaid) and Bonnie Brae (high in the weights) are pretty short already (7.0ish) at the time of writing, so I will go for Captain Bertie and Stevie Thunder, with an egg-on-the-face-saver Bonnie Brae.
3.00 York (John Smiths Cup): Four-year-olds are seven out of nine and there has been no winner with more than 8st 12lb for seven years now, but Pivotman and Tameen, who fit both stats, are drawn out in the old chocolate-factory car-park.
Stand To Reason will love the ground but is 12lb higher than his last success. However, I still think that, because of their age and light weights, one of these four-year-olds will get involved.
Or maybe we should look no further than Area Fifty One, also aged four, and with an apprentice on board: the boys have won six times in the decade. But the ground is a worry. So is Navajo Chief. This pair are close together on course form over a furlong shorter.
Mijhaar is short in the market but entitled to be on his ‘moral’ win at Royal Ascot, when beaten in a three-way photo, giving weight to the first two.
But I feel that Licence To Kill is far too big at 23.0, suited by the course, well drawn to ‘do a Johnston’ and try to outrun them, and a soft-ground lover. I can put up half a dozen dangers and savers. So I won’t.
3.20 Newmarket (JULY CUP): Sirius Prospect, Strong Suit and Society Rock ‘ran’ a triple dead-heat in my stats-based ABCD guide to this race on Tuesday, as horses of the right age and rating coming from Royal Ascot.
But I warned that, while neither Reply nor Fire Lily have Ascot form, three-year-olds have a near-50% record in the sense that they have claimed 15 of the last 32 July Cups.
At the same time, though the bad ground is exploding many stats this week, there’s been just one winner in this aged six and over in 63 years, suggesting that I knock out a third of the field as it appeared over my cornflakes.
There have been withdrawals since but, if you can rely on that age stat, you are really talking only about the front three in the market, plus the three-year-olds, who are loose cannons here.
Society Rock might have given Black Caviar a race of it at Royal Ascot but for a tardy start. The soft going would have given him a chance to draw out Bated Breath, who has beaten him twice on a sound surface and now declines a further rematch in the mud.
Sirius Prospect was also not far behind Black Caviar in first-time hood and blinkers but whether they will work again is always guesswork, though 15.0 on BETDAQ this morning allowed for a bit of guessing.
Sepoy, who won 10 races out of 11 in Australia, including Group 1s and including on soft, is here before his stallion career in the Southern hemisphere later this year. Imagine the boost to his stud fees if he can land this.
I’m taking Fire Lily (11.0 this morning) as my number-one. She stepped up to win a Group 3 last time and was second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. I shall kick myself if I don’t have a pound on the other there-year-old, Reply (22.0), and it wins. Sepoy is my saver; sure to run his heart out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.1pts win and place COMPTON, plus 1.4pts win (stakes saver) SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (1.40 Newmarket)
BET 1.5pts win and place OPERATION CHARIOT, plus 1.8pts win (stakes saver) OLYMPIC GLORY (2.10 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win (nap) MUGAZALA (2.35 Newbury)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 3pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE and 2.4pts win STEVIE THUNDER plus 1pt win (stakes saver) BONNIE BRAE (2.40 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.3pts win and place LICENCE TO KILL (3.00 York)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win FIRE LILY, 1.4pts win REPLY, plus 1pt win (stakes saver) SEPOY (3.20 Newmarket)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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