107 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE-DAY VALUE QUEST: Thanks to a courageous bet on Quest For Peace (WON 5-1) at Glorious Goodwood yesterday, Daqman made it 107 points profit on three consecutive winning days at the festival.
PROFIT 61 points (Wednesday): Hurricane Higgins (WON 14-1) and Sir Graham Wade (WON 14-1)
PROFIT 37 points (Thursday): Grandeur (WON 8-1 from 13.0), Stirring Ballad (WON 8-1); Ahern and Simenon (unplaced lays)
PROFIT 9 points (Friday): Quest For Peace (WON 5-1), Boom And Bust (4th 20-1).
BIG BETDAQ OFFERS AT 32.0, 30.0, 26.0, 25.0, 23.0, 20.0 AND 19.0: Just look at the massive value offers Daqman has dug out for the final day at Goodwood!
2.05 Goodwood (Stewards’ Sprint): Rain could wash out all early predictions at Goodwood today, but I have to play the hand that’s given me over the cornflakes while you, yourselves, can wait on the weather and hope for some indication in this opener of any draw bias for later on in the Stewards’ Cup.
Stalls results on the straight course have been inconclusive this week: far side to centre held sway Wednesday but stands’ side to centre yesterday.
You may as well stick a pin in this race but one feature of the Glorious few days has been the riding of Darren Egan (Landaman 12-1 and Aussie Reigns 20-1) and Michael Murphy, claiming 5lb and 7lb respectively.
Murphy goes into this on Baby Strange with 100% Goodwood record this week: two wins from two rides (Annie’s Fortune 25-1 and Lady Gibraltar (16-1).
Both these winners were for Alan Jarvis, whose Wise Venture (4.35) could come good at a massive 23.0 on BETDAQ this morning, if the rain stayed away and Doncaster rode as firm as is billed.
Back to the Goodwood opener, and similar speculative bets on Egan (Chili Green 25.0 as I write) and Murphy (Baby Strange 26.0), and one from the low stalls, an eye-opening jockey booking for Fran Berry on Valery Borzov (30.0).
2.40 Goodwood: Like yesterday’s opener, which he won with Quest For Peace, this is a Luca Cumani race (three wins in five years 2004-8), and his Franciscan is a respectable 9.0.
On the plus side, Franciscan has won four of his last eight handicaps; on the debit side, his last two defeats have come when raised to today’s level, and his success has been class 3 at best, and over shorter than this 1m 6f. But who’s to say he won’t improve for the trip.
A Boy Named Suzi has got himself into the bridesmaid rut, solid places in today’s grade costing him a 6lb rise, but in fact he needs even more attention from the handicapper to guarantee a place in the Ebor.
The favourite, Motivado, seems to want the ground to stay on top if he is to recapture last year’s winning Haydock form: well behind on heavy in the Pitman’s Derby, along with Listed winner The Betchworth Kid (gets too far behind for this course) and last year’s winner of this, Petara Bay.
With just two runs this year, Petara Bay has clearly been primed for today but he, too, needs a sound surface and his 2011 victory (Harlestone Times sixth) was in a slow-run race.
Harlestone Times, front-runner Life And Soul and Roxy Flyer have bagged five Goodwood wins altogether. When there’s an open race, your best chance is to side with a lightly-raced improver. Vasily (12.5 on BETDAQ as I write) fits the bill.
3.15 Goodwood (Nassau Stakes): There’s no Midday (won three in a row in this), so Sir Henry Cecil relies on Timepiece but she’s twice been beaten by Izzi Top, who looks hard to catch here, particularly as she’s not ground dependent.
The same applies to Nahrain, but you worry when a filly has been seen only once since last November. It would be a huge training feat to land this in these circumstances.
The outcome of the English and Irish Classics have been marked this year by the disparate runs of Ballydoyle’s Power (Guineas) and Was (Oaks), who seemed lucky to hold The Fugue at Epsom. Both have been beaten easily since.
Izzi Top is my first nap of the week at Goodwood; her strong style of running seems suited to the course, and William Buick prefers her to the three-year-olds form represented by The Fugue. All the signs are this season that he’s right.
The ‘dark’ filly of the race is Lay Time and, if indeed eight runners go to post, 20.0 on BETDAQ, with three chances of a place, is worth an each-way interest.
3.55 Goodwood (Stewards Cup): Horses aged four and five dominate (9 out of 10), with stalls 10 to 19 winning for seven years in a row (though the earlier Stewards’ Sprint may give an indication of any current bias in the draw).
Breathless Kiss, Oasis Dancer and Seal Rock are all we need to look at, according to those stats – if only it were that simple! – and Oasis Dancer (32.0 on the Daq) is intriguing.
This hat-trick winner on AW, including a 6f Listed, stays up to a mile, so will appreciate the furious gallop, and his recent runs can be ignored (Wokingham was first run back since a breather after those AW exploits and last time out was a Group race on heavy).
Dungannon (fifth) was bumped when making his effort in the Wokingham and, at 12.5 and having only his fourth race this year, must be fancied among the high drawn (24).
Mark Johnston’s Es Que Love is a crazy prize at 19.0 as I write, even for such a cavalry charge, judged on his Newmarket second and the stable’s current form. Ignore his Group-1 run and last month’s flop (unfancied at 12-1 on ground like a road).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.8pts win and place on each BABY STRANGE and CHILI GREEN,and 0.6pts win and place VALERY BORZOV (2.05 Goodwood)
BET 2.6pts win FRANCISCAN, and 1.7pts win and place VASILY (2.40 Goodwood)
BET 10.8pts win IZZI TOP (nap), and 1pt win and place LAY TIME (3.15 Goodwood)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 3.4pts win DUNGANNON, 2.2pts win and place ES QUE LOVE, 1.2pts win and place OASIS DANCER (3.55 Goodwood)
BET 0.9pts win and place WISE VENTURE (4.35 Doncaster)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated for jackpot returns) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Points are what you make them: if your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
