DAQMAN’S ‘BIG IMPROVER’ WON AT 9-2: Daqman scored with his headline horse, Picabo (WON 9-2), which he described as ‘a big improver’ for Newmarket yesterday.
BIRTHDAY BOY TO BE TOP SHERGAR JOCK: German ace rider Andreas Suborics, 41 today, could make his fifth Shergar Cup a winning one in what Daqman sees as a 4-2 race-by-race victory for the Rest of The World.
Pictured: SHERGAR CUP: Hayley Turner (UK and Ireland captain) flanked by teammates Emma-Jayne Wilson (left) and Chantal Sutherland
You wait ages for a number-6 bus, then three of them come along together.That’s how it feels as three of my horses to follow suddenly show themselves and present me with a problem today. I didn’t expect to see any of them in the situations their trainers have chosen!
The last ‘horse’ to follow– The Fugue – did what I said she’d do when I first put her on the list but I lost heart when she was hammered in the Ribblesdale.
But The Fugue came back big time on a sound surface, though stepped up to Group 1, and the changing ground – sometimes described as firm to heavy across the country on the same day – has been the bane of backers all season.
I didn’t expect to see St Leger hope, Rosslyn Castle (2.20 Haydock), until the Great Voltigeur later in the month at York, and he reappears today on firm ground, whereas his Chester success was on soft.
Though he’s been off for three months, fitness won’t be a problem for him (a first-time-out winner) nor hardly ever is for Roger Charlton horses.
But the Haggas (Stencive) and Stoute (Gospel Choir) maiden winners could come on dramatically and this is not the match it looked on paper between Rosslyn Castle and the Mark Johnston improver, Sir Graham Wade.
I swerved Sir Graham Wade in the week, thinking he would be odds on, dropping in class of track from Goodwood to Pontefract, and class of race (2 to 3), but he was 11-10 against favourite, when finishing nearly five lengths clear.
Rosslyn Castle hasn’t officially stepped up from class 3 yet, but he saw off Gabrial The Great at Chester and that one has already stepped up: he won over today’s course and distance last time out in class 2.
Nothing like that has happened to the Gospel Choir form, but he moved into the favourite’s spot this morning, with the Stoute dogs barking! I could get 7.8 Rosslyn Castle, and I certainly needed it if the ‘Gospel’ story is true.
The second horse to follow is Highland Colori (3.00 Newmarket), who had landed a hat-trick and might have done better at Ascot last month but for being drawn low (in stall 1, beat Van Ellis on his side) when the winners were from on high (stall 22 beat 18 and 23). The ground has come right for him.
12.55 Ascot (Mile): The Shergar Cup game of musical jockeys has never appealed to me. Gambles are a rarity, but winners were between 7-2 and 6-1 last year.
This morning’s BETDAQ offers tot up to as low as 106%, compared with the 2011 SPs of up to 117% (three times) and even 121% in the last.
Here’s my third horse to follow, 4.2 favourite as I write: Boom And Bust is another who had the draw against him last time, out in the Goodwood car park from stall 22 at the big meeting a week or so ago. The ground has come right for him, too.
1.30 Ascot (Stayers): Blinkers and Chantal Sutherland (I shall need blinkers on myself watching her in the race!) could make the difference to Astral Thunder but I doubt it.
In an open race, and with a wonderful punter-friendly ‘book’ (105%) of offers on BETDAQ, I shall take the Cesarewitch runner-up Ermym Lodge at 8.4. His style of van running should suit his American rider, Aaron Gryder.
2.05 Ascot (Dash): I could state the obvious about several of these, and sprints can turn up half a dozen different results for the same number of times they are run.
But I fancy a punt! The 27.0 offers about B Fifty Two, ridden by birthday boy Andreas Suborics, don’t tell the story of the horse’s luckless 2012 campaign.
Beaten over 7f (no surprise there), struck into at Kempton, drawn on the wrong side at Ascot and stuck in the mud at Deauville.
2.40 Ascot (Classic): Quick! If the 2.20 Haydock has seen Gospel Choir stop Sir General Wade’s hat-trick, then you must be on Sun Central here for James Doyle and the UK and Ireland team.
The Haggas gang thought Sun Central a ‘cert’ when he was gambled in to 11-4 fav at Ascot last mlnth. Then Gospel Choir skipped by.
I can’t ‘see’ this race from over my cornflakes. You’ll know a lot more than I do. But I do know that Sun Central is already hot on BETDAQ, and that consistent Fennell Bay is too big at 9.0.
3.15 Ascot (Challenge): Chantal Sutherland on Rock A Doodle Do? I’m not going to go there (not even at 16.0 on BETDAQ)!
Yutaka Take has ridden four winners in the Shergar Cup and partners a Life And Soul in good form, beaten only by a trip too far at Goodwood the last twice. He’s won at Ascot; he’s won on firm; he’s won over 1m 4f. Yet he’s 11.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
3.50 Ascot (Sprint): As tricky as the Dash. But only Mince has won in this grade (class 2) and, at 7.4, appeals as an each-way bet, for some final points for Matty Chadwick and the Rest Of The World.
VERDICT: TEAM: Rest Of The World 4 wins, UK and Ireland 2. JOCKEY: Andreas Suborics.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win BOOM AND BUST (12.55 Ascot)
BET 2.7pts win (nap) ERMYN LODGE (1.30 Ascot)
BET 0.7pts win and 2.3pts place B FIFTY TWO (2.05 Ascot)
BET 8pts win GOSPEL CHOIR and 2.9pts win ROSSLYN CASTLE (2.20 Haydock)
BET 6pts win SUN CENTRAL and 2.5pts win FENNEL BAY (2.40 Ascot)
BET 4.5pts win HIGHLAND COLORI and 1pt win (stakes saver) WHITE FROST (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 2pts win and place LIFE AND SOUL (3.15 Ascot)
BET 3.1pts win and place MINCE (3.50 Ascot)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Boom and Bust (12.55 Ascot), Rosslyn Castle (2.20 Haydock) and Highland Colori (3.00 Newmarket)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points for the win so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Points are what you make them: if your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25.
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