11-1 JACKPOT CRACKER FOR DAQMAN: You can’t keep a good man down! The wizard of odds, Daqman, gave the one-two to jackpot stakes in the opener at York yesterday – Kirthill (WON 11-1) and Martin Chuzzlewit (2nd 10-1) – from three bets.
HE NAMES 7-2 NUNTHORPE WINNER: Daqman also nominated the Nunthorpe winner, the flying Aussie mare Ortensia (WON 7-2), who flashed home in the dying strides.
THREE OUT OF THREE FOR 44 POINTS PROFIT: He bet in three races and won in all three, having scored in between those winners with a lay on Stipulate (unplaced 2-1 favourite). He made 44 points profit on the day.
2.00 York: Stalls 5 to 11 have won all bar one in the last nine years with, as so often happens, the rail draw tightened up and the very outside flung wide or having to drop in behind.
Three-year-olds struggle, with form figures in the last decade of 234002000000304000001432. I can find only one winner over the age of five.
Beacon Lodge is officially top-rated (112) over Dimension, Eton Forever and Gordon Lord Byron (109 each), but add the stats together and ‘Byron’ takes pole position.
He seems best known on soft ground and over shorter trips but was the moral trying 7f at Naas in June, giving 3lb to the winner and beaten a length in very fast time. ‘Byron’ drops back from a Group 3, and connections think he’ll do well on a sound surface.
Rain would suit Eton Forever, but CD-winner Dimension’s best form is all on good ground. It may be a question of whether the rain has arrived by 2 o’clock. That’s the cloud over my cornflakes, but ‘Byron’ may not be ground dependent.
2.15 Goodwood: Favourites have won four of the last five, with only one winner bigger than 4-1 SP in the last seven seasons, and the form book says that Sky Lantern will lead home Roz.
But Arbeel (10.5 offers on BETDAQ) was overpriced this morning: the Chapple-Hyam yard is flying with 5-11 right now and has some good juveniles; this one was not punished first time from a bad draw.
2.30 York (Melrose Stakes): Horses rated 84 to 93 – the eight mid-card runners here – have won eight of the last nine renewals, suggesting you top and tail this handicap to lose the gooseberries.
There’s not much between Gospel Choir and Sir Graham Wade on Haydock form (Gabrial The Great held and, therefore, on a line through Choisan, so, too, Guarantee).
But that suggests Cardinal Walter (7.2 on BETDAQ) – unlucky third to ‘Sir Graham’ at Goodwood – could beat the both of them.
Splitting that pair at Goodwood that day was Mawaqeet, giving 7lb to the winner and beaten less than two lengths. He’d been well beaten at levels by the gambled-on Mysterious Man (17.0 offers this morning) at Bath in June.
Sir Michael Stoute puts the visors on Monshak, as he did on Martin Chuzzlewit yesterday. He’s bred for this, has Graham Lee on board and all he needs is some rain: 10.5 on BETDAQ, as I write. Lee won on his only previous ride for Stoute.
2.45 Goodwood: This is not normally a race for shocks (7-1 is the biggest SP this century), with the draw a strong indicator: stalls 5-to-9 have won five out of six of big-field races, and even lower numbers took the small fields.
I can’t punt the Pricewise choice, Arnold Lane, with Mick Channon’s horses performing below par: his last 40 runners have produced only two small-field short-priced winners, which beat a total of just four horses home.
In his favour is that Arnold Lane enjoys tight tracks (won Chester, second Goodwood) but, then, Decent Fella, Fulbright, Primaeval, The Confessor and Webbow have all won strong handicaps at Goodwood.
Field Of Dream is at good offers (14.0 on BETDAQ) considering he will be trying for his life to win a £1000,000 bonus, and Bertiewhittle is a decent bet at 13.5 to benefit from the draw and hopefully have a bit of luck for a change.
3.05 York (Lonsdale Cup): Seven years in the last eight the winner has come from the Goodwood Cup or a pattern race there, or from the Ascot
Gold Cup and King George.
Saddler’s Rock (nap) and Askar Tau were first and second at Goodwod and third and fifth at Ascot. Cavalryman can beat Ibicenco on a line through Chiberta King but looks Group-3 at best.
3.40 York (Ebor Handicap): The last decade has produced Ebor winners at 100-1, 25-1 (three times), 20-1, 16-1, 14-1 and 11-1. So prepare to have a punt!
Check out the winner’s age in 13 lucky years: six aged 5; three 3, two 4; two 6, though going further back six-year-olds don’t appear in the roll of honour very often.
Weight: six of the last seven successful were rated 94 to 101. Draw: nine of the last 11 winners came from stalls 14 to 22.
It is also essential to find horses that have targeted the race: 11 of the last 13 winners had had five or fewer runs in their winning season.
So it is that the favourites, Motivado (from 8) and Qahriman – in the one stall – have it to do, and those that fit all the stats are (down the card) Willing Foe, Alkimos, Icon Dream and Rock A Doodle Doo. Two of these are trained by Saeed Bin Suroor.
Willing Foe (16.0 on BETDAQ this morning), a brother to 2008 Ribblesdale winner Michita, was runner-up in the November Handicap last autumn, and has had just one race since as a prep for this.
This is new territory for him but the very best progeny of his sire, Dynaformer, were St Leger winner, Lucarno and Melbourne Cup winner Americain.
The other Godolphin runner, Alkimos, was a running-on fourth in the 12f Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot, his first run after being gelded.
In the frame in Group 3s as a three-year-old, Icon Dream was runner-up in this summer’s Pitman’s Derby (half a length behind Crackentorp) on his first run for Jim Goldie after going well over today’s CD in the John Smith’s Silver Cup In July, when Rock A Doodle Doo was a disappointing favourite.
With the Racing Post now available at 8pm the night before (catching up with BETDAQ prices!), those who wanted Icon Dream could have got 23.0 and I see he’s down to 17.5 as I write this morning.
The snag with him is that he doesn’t actually win races (0-16 since his debut), and that’s the whole point of the exercise, don’t you think.
Claimers have won two of the last three Ebors, and Jessica Harrington, puts Darren Egan up on Steps To Freedom. The top weight won the big ‘un yesterday, remember.
Jon Hammond sends Hammerfest over from France: he was a couple of lengths in front of Alkimos at Royal Ascot and, though worse off at the weights, is the one of the pair that’s more likely to stay this trip and is better drawn.
Camborne beat him at Royal Ascot but this time the weights turnaround favours Hammerfest and, again, he seems more likely to appreciate the trip and any rain (70% forecast).
Motivado, Number Theory and Qahriman all have strong claims but, if there’s crowding on the bends as we’ve seen this week, it’s going to take master jockeyship to get them out of trouble on the rail.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win GORDON LORD BYRON (2.00 York)
BET 2pts win and place ARBEEL (2.15 Goodwood)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.8pts win CARDINAL WALTER, 3.1pts win MONSHAK, and 1.8pts win and place MYSTERIOUS MAN (2.30 York)
BET 1.6pts win BERTIWHITTLE and 1.5pts win FIELD OF DREAM (2.45 Goodwood)
BET 11pts win (nap) SADDLER’S ROCK (3.05 York)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win HAMMERFEST, 2pts win WILLING FOE and 1pt win (stakes saver) MOTIVADO (3.40 York)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated in jackpot bets) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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