SEVEN LAYS UP OUT OF NINE: Daqman was back to form yesterday in time for Ayr Gold Cup day today when he was right to oppose Zumbi (unplaced 4-1 favourite) to bring his current successful lays run to seven out of nine.
BIG-RACE ONE-TWO: He regained his big-race stride with a typical one-two, Grandeur (WON 6-4) and Boom And Bust ( 2nd 3-1). The nap lost, rating an ironic Daqman smile after his bitter battle of nine placed in a row, though three of them won to sweeten the pill.
1.45 Ayr Bronze Cup This is an important race only in that it will tell us something about the draw for the Silver and Gold later on.
But on this lowest level of the podium I expect to see jockey of the year (ok, Buick and O’Brien aren’t bad!) Graham Lee, who is on a three-year-old dropped in class with a penchant for soft ground. Jack Dexter could pay for later bets.
2.05 Newbury (Arc Trial) This is as much an Arc trial as my doing 80 on the M1 yesterday (sorry, constable) was a trial for the next Grand Prix.
In fact, barring one success in America, the last four winners of this have gone on to a total of 28 defeats – what a shower! – and today’s race is a similar story.
The best you can say is that three of the five runners won last time out and that, as a three-year-old, one of them, Cameron Highland, should improve.
This is a Group 3 and the only Group-3 winner is Lay Time, apart from Arctic Cosmos, who is desperately trying to redeem his reputation after just one win – in a Listed – since his St Leger of 2010.
This is yet another end-of-the-summer contest where those who have tried and failed at Group level meet the rising three-year-olds. Such races make a big hole in the wallet; let’s hope Cameron Highland can put some stuffing back in.
2.20 Ayr Silver Cup This is often won by outsiders (66-1, 33-1, 20-1, 16-1 in the last nine years) but, if Richard Fahey wins, it’s with a gamble: two favourites in the last four seasons. So watch the market.
One Fahey winner was Kaldoun Kingdom (2009), who turns out again here after costing me cash in the Portland at the Leger meeting.
But the stats say that young horses, aged three to five, take this, with only one exception that proved the rule; last year, in fact.
What about the draw? Well, in Kaldoun Kingdom’s year, the result by stall was 2, 3, 11, 5 and, though last year’s Silver Cup returned 21, 24, 14, and trainers rushed to bag the high numbers for today’s Gold Cup, they may have got it wrong.
Yesterday, the 5f Huntswood Handicap went to the far side: 4 beat 9 and 5. Adding those returns together, it seems we can delete stalls 12 to 20 inclusive, which is a blow to one of my horses to follow, Highland Colori.
The soft-heavy ground horses given credence by the stats are An Saighdiur, Spinatrix (Ayr form figures 121), Fast Shot, Layla’s Hero and Jedward in stalls 24, 22, 3, 10 and 1, respectively.
I’ll leave out the trappy one stall, and Layla’s Hero may need another run back, so I’m taking Fast Shot (offers of 21.0) on BETDAQ and Spinatrix (15.0) and An Saighdiur (7.6) as my saver.
2.35 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) I put up the Yarmouth winner Taayel for this in my horses to follow at the beginning of the week, with the John Gosden two-year-olds team absolutely flying.
They obviously think a lot of Moohaajim, who went over to Deauville for the Morny, fifth behind Reckless Abandon. But the race hasn’t worked out terribly well and trainer Marco Botti has had 29 straight losers in the last fortnight. On a line through George Vancouver, Moohaajim cannot beat Cougar Ridge.
Master Of War, third in the Richmond Stakes and second in the Solario, has a chance on that form but looks more exposed.
I’m sticking my neck out against Moojaahim, and dutching Cougar Ridge and Taayel to beat him, using the winnings from the lay (I hear the words ‘chickens’ and ‘hatch’ painfully adjacent, but we’ll give it a go).
3.10 Newbury Luca Cumani has won this three times in the last five years, including off 9st 10lb topweight where we find Kirthill today.
Several form lines say he can beat the three-year-olds and he carried 10st when he won at York.
3.30 Ayr Gold Cup I’m making the same assumptions that I did in the Silver Cup: that we need a stall on either rail and a horse known to perform well on soft-heavy ground.
Another of my horses to follow, Sholaan, has a great chance from stall 2 as a five-lengths soft-ground York winner (that’s heavy on most tracks).
But there are Group horses in this one, inevitably with big weights but whose class might see them through: Maarek and The Cheka can cope with heavy ground.
So can Pintura, Mirza, Boastful (second to Maarek in a Group 3), Captain Ramius, Brae Hill, Tariq Too and Alben Star.
Captain Ramius is a standout for me. In a big field, you can have passage problems but, otherwise, I would have napped him, even at 17.0 on BETDAQ.
Fresh as a daisy, he’s been in the frame in his only races since January – the Bunbury Cup and the Great St Wilfrid – will love the conditions, and has Pat Smullen booked from stall 8. Sholaan (14.5 from stall 2) is a big danger, laid out for the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.6pts win JACK DEXTER (1.45 Ayr)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4pts win AN SAIGHDIUR, 1.5pts win FAST SHOT and 2pts win SPINATRIX (2.20 Ayr)
LAY 10pts MOOHAAJIM, and BET 4.6pts win COUGAR RIDGE and 2.8pts win TAAYEL (2.35 Newbury)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) KIRTHILL (3.10 Newbury)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 3pts win SHOLAAN and 2.4pts win CAPTAIN RAMIUS (3.30 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 0.25pts win yankee Jack Dexter (1.45 Ayr), Cameron Highland (2.05 Newbury), Kirthill (3.10 Newbury) and Captain Ramius (3.30 Ayr)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Taayel (2.35 Newbury), Highland Colori (2.30 Ayr), Sholaan (3.30 Ayr)
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