PLACE NAPS DOUBLE: NOW FOR THE HAT-TRICK: It’s a day of big fields at five meetings in England but Daqman asks you to wait for the 5 o’clock at Newmarket for his place nap, which he hopes will follow on Young Mags (WON 15-2) and Cavaleiro (3rd 9-2) yesterday.
PENNY HAS FOOLED THE HANDICAPPER: Daqman lays one of his biggest winners this season, and claims that the handicapper has got it wrong about a filly called ‘Penny’.
2.0 Ascot (Cornwallis Stakes) What accident or grand design has produced four Northern winners of this in the last five years? That’s the trouble with stats; they are there, and you make of them what you will.
Richard Fahey holds up the flag for the North with Garswood, officially 3lb behind Bungle Inthejungle, the Molecomb winner and Flying Childers runner-up.
But, in fact, the 106 official rating is a huge tribute to Garswood, whose Harry Roseberry win at Ayr (heavy) was only the third race of his career, which started just a few weeks back in mid-July.
On breeding, El Manati should like the ground. Fillies have won the race six times this century and she broke the course record when winning nine lengths at Leicester.
2.15 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions 2-Y-O Fillies’ Trophy) Hot favourites are two out of three since 2009, but both were winners on firm ground; they were split by a 20-1 winner on soft, and it’s hard to take a short price today.
One thing the three previous winners had in common is that all had been in the frame in a Group race. Nearest to that is The Gold Cheongsam’s Albany fifth, though Graphic Quest, Fantacise and Miss You Too have been thereabouts in Listed contests.
What that tells me is that competition is weaker this year among those well exposed, so I’m ‘expecting’ one of the lightly raced sorts: Badr Al Badoor, Concise, Penny Rose, and Victrix Ludorum, already winner of a similar race when Graphic Quest was withdrawn (unruly in stalls).
Who has committed the ratings howler? The official handicapper says that Penny Rose is only an 81, seventh best in the race, 18lb behind Graphic Quest. The Racing Post says she’s third best, only six points behind their leader, The Gold Cheongsam. I say she’ll just about win.
2.30 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) Horses aged three and four are 8-10 in the decade and, if the Marcus Tregoning pair I tipped yesterday hadn’t both been beaten, I would be rooting big time for Hawaafez.
The trainer has won this race on four occasions in nine years, and his six runners in that time finished 111310. But has Tregoning gone? Or was it the ground that beat Mulaqen (first run back) and Cavaleiro yesterday?
I take the view that Willing Foe needs further, and that – dropped back in trip – Camborne is the big danger to Hawaafez, who goes well after a break.
2.50 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions 2-Y-O Trophy) Fillies usually stick to their own Millions race at 2.15 pm but Discernable and Ollie Olga are taking on the colts here.
On the stats, there’s a 50% chance of a big-odds winner: 66-1 and 33-1 shots have scored in its four-year history. Despite that, the frame horses can be followed, though we can’t be certain of a result like the one in 2009, when the subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero beat the Racing Post Trophy winner.
In fact, not much was expected of these on the entries, except for Havana Gold, Ghurair (both Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy) and Mirsaale (Racing Post Trophy). Havana Gold, Ollie Olga and Race And Status are the only ones with Classic engagements at this stage.
This is the target race for Ghurair, who still looked green at Goodwood, but Tamayuz Star is the ‘wrong’ price at offers of 13.0, as a course winner with his form franked more than most.
3.05 Ascot (Bengough Stakes) All sorts win this.. except favourites! Royal Rock was stone last in 2010, in the middle of winning it twice.
A three-year-old stopped his run two years ago, and Mince could step up into the ranks of Group-sprint performers, if she can cope with today’s ground; all success since her maiden has been on firm going, and she’s had a long season, winning twice for this column. She owes me nothing, one of my biggest winners of the year.
I believe that the other three-year-old runner, Valbchek, will be better suited by the soft surface on breeding, and is a big price at BETDAQ offers of 10.5. Soul (5.3 as I write) likes the ground and the track (fourth to Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee).
3.20 Newmarket Wide open (8.0 the field on BETDAQ, as I write) but a punter-friendly market: I have to give a last chance to Rosslyn Castle (17.0), in the hope that first-time blinkers do the trick.
3.35 Ascot (Challenge Cup) Just three winning favourites in 25 years but Captain Ramius won the Ayr Gold Cup for this column on heavy ground, and that race has provided the winner of this three years running.
Field Of Dream loves the track and should turn around recent course form with Don’t Call Me, if acting on the soft surface; this morning’s market (he’s 13.0) says he won’t.
Skilful, back from a lay-off and denied a clear run at Haydock, is bred to revel in easy ground, and now looks the likely danger (offers of 7.2).
5.00 Newmarket Ladies Are Forever (9.8 the win, at the time of writing) is my bet for a third place nap in a row. She will love the ground and is officially rated alongside the shorter-priced horses. Kieren Fallon rides for one of his mates.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9.3pts win GARSWOOD and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) EL MANATI (2.00 Ascot)
BET 4.2pts win PENNY ROSE and 0.6pts win (stakes saver) VICTRIX LUDORUM (2.15 Newmarket)
BET 5.8pts win HAWAAFEZ and 3.8pts win CAMBORNE (2.30 Ascot)
BET 6.2pts win GHURAIR and 1.6pts win TAMAYUZ STAR (2.50 Newmarket)
LAY 10pts MINCE and WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.6pts win SOUL and 3.1pts win VALBCHEK (3.05 Ascot)
BET 1.25pts win and place ROSSLYN CASTLE (3.20 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5pts win CAPTAIN RAMIUS and 4.8pts win SKILFUL (3.35 Ascot)
BET 2.2pts win and place LADIES ARE FOREVER (place nap, 5.00 Newmarket)
* Unless otherwise stated for jackpot returns, Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you can work out the offers taken (20 divided by stake).
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