10.5 ON BETDAQ ABOUT DAQMAN’S 11-2 WINNER: Daqman opposed the favourite, The Betchworth Kid (last of 16 at 4-1), and gave first and third, Daneking (WON 11-2 from 10.5) and Kiwayu, in one of the big-field handicaps at Doncaster yesterday.
20.0, 16.0, 12.0, 11.0 BETDAQ VALUE TODAY: Today Daqman rates Steeler the nap for the Racing Post Trophy but nominates outsiders at 20.0, 16.0, 12.0 and 11.0 Betdaq value.
2.15 Newbury (Horris Hill Stakes) Produced future Classic winners in the 1960s and 70s but nothing of that ilk recently.
In those days you were looking for a once-raced sort, getting some education on the way to his Classic season. Now it’s an ordinary contest where you need a tough, experienced candidate: the last three winners had all had at least seven starts.
Richard Hannon is two out of three in this and wants to win it for his new owner, Sheikh Hamdan, with Alhebayeb, whose last of 11 in the Prix Morny doesn’t tell the whole story from a race which has yielded five Group winners since. Highly-regarded stablemate Glean could be the danger.
2.30 Doncaster Yesterday’s sprint result by stall was 18, 15, 10, 16 (with 19 runners), and this race of 22 declared has gone to horses aged three and four for six years now.
Those stats recommend just six of today’s field, with Jack Dexter (8.0 on BETDAQ right now) a standout among the first half dozen in the betting, the five others all low-drawn or older horses, or both.
Ballista, a front-runner, and Mirza were short with the big bookies but are racing out of stalls 1 and 2. They could set it up on that side for Dungannon (trading 11.0 at this time), a Doncaster winner who likes the ground and is lightly raced this year.
York Glory is another with very few miles on the clock for the season: he’s taken a long time to come to hand and is big offers at 16.0 for a colt that ran eight times consecutively in the first two.
The pace on the high side comes from Cheviot, Captain Dunne and Moorhouse Lad. It will need to be strong, as Jack Dexter has been winning over 6f and 7f and drops back to the minimum here.
2.45 Newbury (St Simon Stakes) Nothing has broken through the 9st 3lb barrier in the decade but it is a race which carries horses into Group status: winners had been Listed at best before winning this.
Frankel’s brother Noble Mission flopped in the Great Voltigeur so missed the St Leger; oddly enough, he’d beaten the Leger winner, Encke, in his previous race.
Lightly-raced Hawaafez got away from them at Ascot, though a more resolute Camborne (veered across the track) might have given her a race. Fillies do best in this and Park Hill runner-up Hazel Lavery is a big price at offers of 12.0.
3.05 Doncaster (Racing Post Trophy) Though this race produced Camelot last year, it had been otherwise jinxed since Motivator (2004) and Authorized (2006).
So three Derby winners but three huge flops in Ibn Khaldun, Crowded House and Casamento. And St Nicholas Abbey took 18 months before he regained his form.
It’s a similar in-and-out story in the race itself for its top trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has won it six times but has saddled four beaten favourites.
Unusually for him, he has all his eggs in one basket here with Kingsbarns, easy Navan winner first time out on the first day of the month and a late entry.
Will need to have made significant progress at home since then to cope with four recent dual winners: Trading Leather, Steeler, Van Der Neer and First Cornerstone.
A line through Birdman suggests Steeler over First Cornerstone, while Trading Leather has already beaten a Ballydoyle Derby horse, Eye Of The Storm.
The two-and-a-half-lengths third to Van Der Neer at Leicester was 10 lengths behind Dawn Approach at Royal Ascot, whereas the fifth that day at Ascot was a length behind Steeler at Newmarket.
On what we know and what we surmise, I make it between Kingsbarns and Steeler, who has won a Group 2 where Trading Leather is only Group 3 so far.
Since O’Brien hasn’t had a two-year-old winner in England this season, so I’m napping the Royal Lodge winner Steeler, who had beaten four next-time-out-winners in his Goodwood Listed.
3.30 Aintree (Old Roan Chase) This has recently been an early pot for old hands like Monet’s Garden and Albertas Run. Gauvain probably comes nearest to their level, and he’s won first time out before now.
But it’s also the race in which Paul Nicholls introduced Kauto Star to Aintree, aged six in 2006, and he now saddles Pacha Du Polder, though that one was held by For Non Stop at Newbury when he fell in February.
Like For Non Stop’s career, Noble Prince’s was geared to Cheltenham in March. Both failed there, Noble Prince with an injury; For Non Stop ran well.
This is a very difficult track for Cheltenham types, and the race is a handicap, and I shall have my pound on an in-form yard saddling a lightweight at a huge price: 20.0 Giorgio Quercus.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.5pts win ALHEBAYEB and 1pt win (stakes saver) GLEAN (2.15 Newbury)
BET 2.8pts win JACK DEXTER, 2pts win DUNGANNON and 1.3pts win YORK GLORY (2.30 Doncaster)
BET 5pts win HAWAAFEZ and 1.8pts win HAZEL LAVERY (2.45 Newbury)
BET 5.4pts win STEELER (nap) and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) KINGSBARNS (3.05 Doncaster)
BET 1pt win and place GIORGIO QUERCUS (3.30 Aintree)
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