11-4 NAP TAKES THREE-DAY PROFIT TO 61 POINTS: After Chapter And Verse (WON 7-1) on Thursday, and three wins at the Betdaq-sponsored Kempton meeting the day before, Daqman landed his nap, At Fishers Cross (WON 11-4) on Cheltenham’s opening day yesterday for 61 points in the three days.
BETDAQ BETTING BEATS THE BOOK AGAIN.. AND AGAIN: Chapter And Verse was selected at 10.0 on BETDAQ and At Fishers Cross was a ‘Daq Value Bet, nominated by Daqman in a ‘punter-friendly’ race where the total probability was below 110%. In fact, the SP Total percent was 117.
Can Nicky Henderson hit target again with the same silver bullets? Or does his fielding three last year’s winners today reveal an ammunition shortage as he trails Paul Nicholls in the trainers’ table.
The stable attempts back-to-back wins with the same horses in consecutive races on a Cheltenham card that trials for March. Ominously, all three – Quantitativeasing, Grandouet and Oscar Whisky – went on to be beaten at this year’s festival.
12.10 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle trial) and 2.45 Doncaster (Summit Hurdle) Only Katchit (2006) from the Triumph Hurdle trial has gone on to triumph in the Triumph itself, with winners of today’s test showing the following form figures in the ‘real thing’ at Cheltenham: B0851-949.
The Paul-Nicholls-trained favourite for March, Far West is odds on to win at Cheltenham today but the Nicky Henderson horse he beat into second – 26 lengths clear of the third – Vasco Du Ronceray was better than even money for Doncaster’s 2.45 Summit Hurdle on BETDAQ this morning.
It was a far, far better thing that I did at 9.30 this morning, taking the 2.20 ‘Vasco’. If Far West wins a street, the Doncaster runner will be 2-1 on.
12.45 Cheltenham and 1.45 Lingfield Though past winners of this Cheltenham test made a noise in the RSA market (Time For Rupert, Joe Lively), none has scored at Cheltenham, their RSA form-figures being 33966-5P.
The pace was poor when Highland Lodge stayed on, third, at Newbury last month and he ran an in-and-out race; should have kicked on. Barry Geraghty takes over now.
The time was even slower when Our Father won in a lower grade on the Old Course here a fortnight earlier, the same level at which Court In Motion got within a neck of Poungach (franked by Super Duty yesterday) and ran up to Dynaste, albeit over shorter.
There was no reason on form why they were strung out in the BETDAQ market this morning at 1.93 Our Father, 3.65 Court In Motion and 6.4 Highland Lodge. I took 6.4 Highland Lodge, of course.
By 9.45 a.m., Court In Motion had defected to his first preference in the 1.45 Lingfield, and Highland Lodge was down to 3.9. The 6.4 had been an absolute steal!
And, even after confirmation that he would run at Lingfield, I could get better than evens Court In Motion in BETDAQ offers for that race which added up to 101%. Every which way, it was Christmas come early for astute Daq punters!
1.20 Cheltenham Old boys Oiseau De Nuit (had his annual win in October) and Oh Crick (scored once in three years) are very hard to win with, and there is a question mark about the ground for Shooters Wood. That left 5.0 mudloving Garynella as first position on the race this morning, and my confidence grew until I napped him.
1.55 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett) Three of the last six winners of this (Black Jack Ketchum, Nenuphar Collonges and Mossley) have gone on to take the Albert Bartlett proper at the Cheltenham Festival. By all accounts, Coneygree could be the next.
2.30 Cheltenham (December Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are 3-2 in the private battle among the last nine winners, with Henderson today fielding last year’s, Quantitativeasing.
He’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, well over my betting-weir for a Henderson at 19.0 on BETDAQ, not a single bark from Lambourn for him.
Nicholls’ My Will half-brother Unioniste (6.2 as I write) looks proverbially ‘thrown in’ off 10st and with Harry Derham’s claim but, in fact, he’s only four years old and the claim is required just to get him into the handicap proper, and I prefer the other Nicholls’ runner, Ruby Walsh’s mount, Cristal Bonus.
With Al Ferof now 5-1 (6.4 on BETDAQ this morning) for the King George after his Paddy Power, then the horse he beat that day, Walkon, who is only 5lb higher, would surely be worth a serious punt (at 5.8 in a 108% orange) in this handicap, down in Grade 3.
Snag is that both Walkon and the other Henderson runner, Nadiya De La Vega, who was third, behind him, in the Paddy Power, have always been best caught fresh. I am loathe to leave Walkon unbacked, but mudlover Cristal Bonus seems to offer a more solid basis for a bet.
3.05 Cheltenham (International Hurdle) If you want some ‘overs’ on the Champion Hurdle, back your fancy of Zarkandar (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning), Rock On Ruby (10.0) and Grandouet (11.0). Success today would see the winner challenge Hurricane Fly for top spot in the festival market.
Though he’s champion (I tipped him at long odds last March.. boast, boast), ‘Ruby’ is already seven years old. Horses aged four and five have landed five of the last six runnings of this trial, with Nicky Henderson two, including Grandouet last year.
Only Grandouet has won on soft-heavy ground but that was in a little race in France and he would, wouldn’t he. His sire’s progeny are much better on a sounder surface.
Azamours (Zarkander) are also better on top of the ground and I fancy Rock On Ruby to defy the stats; a secondary reason is that he stays further and stamina could be today’s deciding factor: 3.75 in a Daq Value race (101%).
Nicky Henderson should win the last with Oscar Whisky, yet another of his attempting back-to-back wins. That’s where I came in.
3.20 Doncaster My outsider today is in this intriguing handicap (106% total of prices on BETDAQ: Quentin Collonges, offered at 12.5 at time of writing, on the grounds that he will enjoy the surface, loves Doncaster and always goes well first run back.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 5pts win (nap) GARYNELLA (1.20 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 4.1pts win WALKON and 3.4pts win CRISTAL BONUS (2.30 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 7.2pts win ROCK ON RUBY (3.05 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 1.7pts win and place QUENTIN COLLONGES (3.20 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble GARYNELLA (1.20 Cheltenham), CONEYGREE (1.55 Cheltenham) and VASCO DU RONCERAY (2.45 Doncaster)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: HIGHLAND LODGE (12.45 Cheltenham)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). This does not apply to Daq Multiples. All bets marked Daq Value today were in races with 101% to 110% total probability in the offers at the time he was writing.
* Early-bird bets for the 12.10 Cheltenham linked with the 2.45 Doncaster, and for the 12.45 Cheltenham connection with the 1.45 Lingfield, are no longer valid, but serve as a reminder to take early positions on BETDAQ at value prices (see story above, in which Daqman describes the offers he took as ‘Christmas come early.’).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
