‘BOX’ SET OF NAPS BID WITH MAXIMUM STAKES: Broxbourne (WON 13-8, but signifcantly better on BETDAQ) last night gave Daqman his 10th winning nap of the new year for a 28% strike rate. He tries for back-to-back best bets in the early exchanges today, reckoning Chatterbox a good thing. It’s the return of 20-point maximum stakes for the first time in two years.
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Daqman takes you step by step through the trial races, outlining each horse’s target race and attempting to match collateral form where possible.
40-POINT JACKPOT COUPS: The result is three swipes at 40-point jackpot returns in the big races at Newbury from the man they call the Saturday King.
It’s last-chance saloon for the Cheltenham Festival! Most past Festival winners had trialed today at the latest, and both Leopardstown and Newbury can set the stage for the Gold Cup, Arkle and Champion Chases, Supreme Novice Hurdle and the RSA.
Or, to put it another way, your picks today have to be worthy of Cheltenham stardom, so you are looking for really solid form or confirmation of star potential.
The Dr J P Moriarty Novice Chase in Ireland and the Game Spirit Chase in England have the best records for Cheltenham success but the Hennessy at Leopardstown could be a turnkey race for this year’s Gold Cup.
1.15 Newbury They were offering 16.5 bar two this morning for the heat that Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof (2011) won before his Supreme Novice Hurdle triumph.
Yes, it’s straight into battle, Nicholls v Henderson, with Nicky’s CD-winner Chatterbox the big talking horse with, for me, Ditcheat holding up the market with their Triumph Hurdle hope, Lac Fontana, despite getting the 4-y-o allowance.
Entered for the Neptune and the Supreme Novice Hurdle, Chatterbox’ win at Newbury was over the 149-rated My Tent Or Yours, favourite for the BF Hurdle later this afternoon. That rating is 7lb better than last year’s Supreme winner.
1.50 Newbury Knock A Hand tries for back-to-back wins in this race but seven times out of eight a younger horse (aged six or seven) takes it.
CD-winner Sivola De Sivola (holds Barafundle) and Monetary Fund were not disgraced behind the ultra-game At Fishers Cross on heavy at Cheltenham, and Master Of The Sea has made such waves since December that he’s up 31lb.
The quirky Captain Sunshine (10.0 on BETDAQ as I write) would have finished close to the winner, Oscara Dara, had he not fallen in the Lanzarote.
That form would have given him around 146 not the 136 rating he has today, and he’s crying out for the 3m trip, a son of Oscar out of an Ardross mare. The slower pace over this extra distance should help his jumping.
2.15 Leopardstown (Deloitte Novice Hurdle) Winners of this have gone on to one win and a third in the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the last nine years.
Waaheb and Champagne Fever are defending their prominent position with some bookies for the renewal of that race in March. Minsk and Bright New Dawn have run not far off them.
But trainers of all four are looking for a big leap forward here, since all are held on form by Jezki via races at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown.
And sandwiched between Jezki and this quartet in the current Supreme market are My Tent Or Yours and Cause and Causes, both runners in the 3.35 Newbury today.
2.25 Newbury (Denman Chase) Kauto Star and Long Run have won this and, of course, Denman. If there’s a Gold Cup winner in the line-up this year, it would have to be Silviniaco Conti.
He’s odds on here with 7.4 bar one on BETDAQ this morning, taking on Grade 2 and 3 winners, after his defeat of Gold Cup holder, Long Run, at Haydock.
But he is said to be well short of peak fitness after a 77-day holiday and with his trajectory ascending to peak at Cheltenham, as are so many others today.
It would be a surprise if he’s beaten but both Long Run and Kauto Star only scraped home in this race, and his win odds are smaller than the place odds for the rest of the field.
Though massively behind in the ratings, Master Of The Hall is at his best in small fields and won’t do any harm to the bank balance carrying a pound at his massive 35.0. Could sneak a place.
Well, you simply can’t trust Weird Al and The Giant Bolster, and Menorah is not value but guesswork because of the step up in trip.
2.40 Warwick (Arkle Trophy Trial) This is Fago’s big chance to stake his claim for Cheltenham, with trainer Nicholls likening him to Master Minded, though the 2m 4f Jewson is a weaker option.
Fago shapes more like a two-miler, but he’d have to deal easily today with another improver, Majala (misses Newbury), if he is to be taken seriously for the Arkle against the might of Simonsig and Overturn.
2.45 Leopardstown (Dr P J Moriarty Novice Chase) This is hot. Two winners of this and one runner-up have taken the three-mile RSA Chase in the last four years.
All eyes are on Boston Bob, whether this will see him go for Arkle, RSA or Jewson: 2m would surely be too short for him and he’s already given 7lb and a beating to today’s second favourite, Lyreen Legend, over 2m 4f.
But, hello, that was a hurdle. And ‘Bob’ has been over fences only once in his life, beating only half a length a horse that was hammered 22 lengths next time out.
Meanwhile, Lyreen Legend’s form with Back In Focus suggests he’s in front of Texas Jack and, collaterally, Lord Windermere and Star Neuville.
At 5.3 the more experienced Lyreen Legend looks value, with slightly better than evens about Boston Bob for a stakes saver.
Lyreen legend is an out-and-out stayer, so won’t be wanting for lack of stamina, and his Cheltenham attention could be turned to to the National Hunt Chase (4m).
3.00 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) Champion Chase (2) and Arkle (1) have been won by the winners of this. In 2008, the one-two were also one-two in the Champion Chase.
Edgardo Sol, Shooters Wood and Wishfull Thinking are all long-odds outsiders against Sprinter Sacre for the Champion this time around, so this race may not tell us much about it this year.
Ditcheat reckons Shhoters Wood a likely G and Annual horse and he’s preferred by Ruby Walsh to Edgardo Sol because of the ground. It’s an open race despite the small field, with only two points separating offers for the front four in a punter-friendly 105% market.
3.20 Leopardstown (Hennessy Gold Cup) Previously winner (2010) and third (2011), Joncol takes on last year’s Hennessy hero Quel Esprit.
Rising stars Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar are the headline horses and former Grade-1 novice-chase winner Bog Warrior is said to be jumping well again after reverting to hurdles, with just 12 runs to his name at the age of nine.
It sounds like the race of the day, with every one a potential winner, but BETDAQ layers don’t think so. They offer 10.0 bar the big two, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, in what they think is a match which may decide the outcome of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Flemenstar has twice finished in front of Sir Des, by five lengths at Punchestown but only a short-head the last day when stepped up to 3m, Sir Des closing him down at the line after failing to jump out of the mud for most of the race.
It’s a 5-4 and 6-4 situation so that, for once, I’m not tempted by the very low overround on BETDAQ offers (101%). A race to watch and enjoy.
3.35 Newbury (BF Hurdle) Winners of this fall just short of conditions-race class at Cheltenham (a second and two fifths in recent years) but are capable of winning a handicap there (Spirit Leader 2003 County Hurdle).
Cause Of Causes and My Tent Or Yours are at the front of the market for the Supreme Novice Hurdle, while Cause Of Causes and Dark Lover are being quoted for the County Hurdle.
The last six to score have all been aged five or six. Winning weights carried are generally below 10st 11lb (six out of eight) but My Tent Or Yours absolutely cruised up on the last day, and I’m expecting Chatterbox to have boosted his chances with a win in the opener.
We’re not sure how Cotton Mill (9.8 offers on BETDAQ) will go on the ground: he unseated when battling it out with Simonsig for the Neptune last March and, on that form, would be a formidable opponent.
He runs off the same rating as Cash And Go who, on Cheltenham form in November, has the beating of Cause Of Causes.
But that one has nothing to spare over Petit Robin and he, in turn, must fear Into Wain and First In The Queue at the weights.
Paul Nicholls, who knows the form through Dark Lover, pitches yet another four-year-old (Caid Du Berlais) into the big time but has Ruby Walsh on Pearl Swan (10.0 on BETDAQ as I write) , a horse he’s found hard to train but still rates a possible for the Champion Hurdle.
4.10 Newbury Yet another Cheltenham contender, Unioniste, but Nicholls uses this race to warn on the internet that he and his work companion, Silviniaco Conti, will come on a good deal for the run.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 20pts win (nap at SP) CHATTERBOX (1.15 Newbury)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 4.4pts win CAPTAIN SUNSHINE (1.50 Newbury)
BET 0.5pts win and 2.5pts place MASTER OF THE HALL (2.25 Newbury)
BET 4.6pts win LYREEN LEGEND and 3.8pts win (stakes saver) BOSTON BOB (2.45 Leopardstown)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 4.4pts win PEARL SWAN and 4.5pts win COTTON MILL, with 2pts win (stakes saver) MY TENT OR YOURS (3.35 Newbury)
Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took from the points he’s placed (divide 20 by the stake). However, stakes are raised for jackpot bets to win 40 or more points (designated at the beginning of the bet). Today’s nap is a rare SP bet.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
