16-1 WINNER A 19.0 BETDAQ ‘GIFT’ FOR DAQMAN: Daqman yesterday described the 19.0 Goring One (WON 16-1) as a ‘gift’ on BETDAQ, as he landed three Friday winners in four races for a profit on the day of 32 points.
7-2 SHOT WAS 7.0 VALUE IN ANOTHER DAQMAN HIT: There was an even bigger gap between the 7.0 Daqman grabbed about Kapga De Cerisy (WON 7-2) before the Tony McCoy mount turned over the 5-2 on favourite, Fago.
DOUBLE ‘BASS’ WITH 16.0 FOR AINTREE: Daqman backs Seabass in the Bobbjo today and goes in again on the same horse for the Grand National, with a jackpot bet staked to win 50 points at Aintree.
Take some 16.0 Seabass for the Grand National on BETDAQ. The 2012 third is 12-1 with Hills and BetVictor, and generally 14-1, so is a catch in the Daq’s ante-post pool.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since I had 60.0 about him last year but, if he makes a splash in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse today, he could salmon-leap the Mullins duo, Prince De Beauchene and On His Own, and lead the Aintree market.
It’s also possible that Wyck Hill will shorten up after Kempton but he has Aces against him today and Tony McCoy has more cards up his sleeve for the National in Sunnyhill Boy and Colbert Station. Enjoy the day.
2.35 Fairyhouse (Bobbyjo Chase) This race produced the Grand National winner in 2005 (Hedgehunter) and the best Aintree horse not to win a National, Black Apalachi (2009), second the year after his Bobbyjo to Don’t Push It. All seven runners today are in the National.
Willie Mullins’ Prince De Beauchene, winner of this last year off 12lb lower, was favourite for Aintree next month until his stablemate On His Own scored over hurdles in the week.
Prince De Beauchene had pulled off the same hurdles trick at Limerick in December, so that he stays on 11st 3lb in the National handicap, 1lb in front of Seabass who, in turn, is a further 1lb ahead of Roi Du Mee. So their meeting at levels today doesn’t help us much.
Roi Du Mee (tongue-strap first time today) was well beaten on the last day by Quito De La Roque, who has been keeping Grade-1 company, and today’s trip seems to be more Quito’s cup of tea than for the National contenders. But Davy Russell prefers Roi Du Mee.
And the reason I could get 60.0 for last year’s National was that Seabass seemed to be a two-miler, 20 furlongs at most. It is a measure of his speed mix with stamina that he was able to win over 2m in his preparation, yet go on to finish third at Aintree over twice that and more.
Fairyhouse early this month was his reappearance race but he won his first two starts last season so I can’t envisage any ‘bounce’ factor In fact, he’s finished in the first three for his last 12 starts, still standing.
I think we could see him overtake both Mullins’ horses in the Grand National betting after today’s race, for which I hooked into 4.6.
3.15 Kempton Much as I admire the horse that beat him – Chatterbox – at Newbury a fortnight ago, I can’t get my head round Lac Fontana being anything other than ordinary.
His daddy, Shirocco, has done well enough on the Flat (Brown Panther) but his jumps progeny is mediocre to put it mildly: a £5,000 mares-hurdle win is the best his 22 sons and daughters have achieved in UK.
That one apart, they have raced 76 times for 11 low-key successes, only one of them breaking five-figure total prizemoney, though one has done well in France.
Triumph Hurdle hope Lac Fontana is the dam’s first foal and her daddy was also insignificant at stud, Flat and jumps. In the gelding’s favour is that he gets massive four-year-olds allowances, for a race which both his trainer, Paul Nicholls, and Alan King have won with that age group before.
Kingy has taken the prize three times in in seven years (form figures for the race in that time 11301).
He’s brought Fair Trade along steadily, winning a bumper last time but he’s very easy to back this morning, a dog on a raft, drifted out to 10.0.
And, in fact, Forgotten Voice is the one with the breeding for this – same sire as Unaccompanied – and the one who will benefit from the better ground.
He struggled in the mud in a handicap off 140 last time but much better is expected today. Brick Red is also running for me, up two stone for a hat–trick this year, and I can’t really lose with Lac Fontana today, if I lay him.
If he wins, he makes my Cheltenham bet, Chatterbox, a ‘proper’ horse and that one will come down in price and give me some ‘overs’ to play with. If Fontana loses, the lay profit will pay for the Chatterbox bets.
3.50 Kempton (Racing Plus Chase) All eyes are on Wyck Hill but he’s up 20lb for his success at Wincanton and Ascot: he is now a stone worse off with Roberto Goldback (third) on the Ascot form, and it’s different ground.
If you follow the form loop, Duke Of Lucca is now weighted about the equal of Roberto Goldback on earlier Ascot form, and the Duke will benefit most from today’s change of going.
Wyck Hill might still be on the upgrade, as he’s had only 14 races in his life but Rolling Aces is two years younger with only seven Rules races on his CV, and he’s shorter in the betting for the Speciality Chase at Cheltenham than Wyck Hill.
Granted his improvement since, the horse Wyck Hill beat only half a length at Wetherby in November, Fill The Power, was beaten out of sight – 15 lengths – by Rolling Aces’ stablemate, Rocky Creek, at Warwick, so Ditcheat knows something about him.
And Wyck Hill’s Ascot form with Katenko is the less because of the heavy ground. For me, Katenko is a big, strong ‘bog’ horse: he has spent his entire career on soft and heavy and carried light weights all his life. His sire’s other good son, Organisedconfusion, won only on soft-heavy.
In a tremendous 101% punter-friendly BETDAQ book of offers this morning, I took Rolling Aces at 5.1 and Duke Of Lucca at 13.0, and afraid of no one.
4.25 Kempton I was ready to have a decent bet on Sail And Return, ridden by star youngster, Thomas Garner, who won at 33-1 on Kuilsriver last Saturday.
But Sail And Return is three times the paper-forecast price at 48.0 offers on BETDAQ as I write. I shall have to leave a few bob, in case he’s been overlooked. If he doesn’t go well today, I shall watch for him next time he’s tongue-tied.
LINGFIELD The Grand Final (1.55) is a bit grand for what it is, a class-5 sprint, masquerading as a class 3. Too difficult. And the Winter Derby Trial (3.05) looks a snip for Planteur. Too easy.
But I’m calling House in the Listed. Farmleigh House (2.30) returns to the scene of his class-2 win in January, with the third horse that day, Piscean, having beaten his main market rival, York Glory.
* Cheltenham winners can be seen after racing at Kempton today, when Long Run, Bobs Worth and Binocular have private gallops.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 10pts win (nap) FARMLEIGH HOUSE (2.30 Lingfield)
BET 5.5pts win SEABASS (2.35 Fairyhouse)
LAY 10pts LAC FONTANA and BET 4.7pts win FORGOTTEN VOICE (3.15 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 7.3pts win ROLLING ACES, and 2.5pts win DUKE OF LUCCA (3.50 Kempton)
BET 0.4pts win and place SAIL AND RETURN (4.25 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-50 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win SEABASS (Grand National, Aintree)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, unless stakes are raised to jackpot level, with win-30 and win-50 bets placed today. Lays are always 10-pointers.
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