DAQMAN NAP AND JACKPOT GO ‘TOGETHER’: It’s a big day today for Grand National trialists Ballabriggs and Join Together and for Cheltenham NH Chase favourite, Harry Topper, at Kelso. Such is his confidence in Join Together that Daqman raises his nap stake to jackpot level and also grabs 18.0 on BETDAQ for the National.
SOLID-AS-A-ROQUE AS HE HITS 4-1 WINNER: Daqman was in at the finish every time yesterday, with his bets returning: 331323. Silver Roque (WON 4-1) was enough to take him into profit for the second day running. His naps in the last week have finished: 2211213.
HE SPOTS 15-2 GAMBLE AT 24.0 ON BETDAQ: After a 33-1 third (hampered) on Wednesday, Brother Scott, which he described as ‘running loose’ at the 24.0 on BETDAQ, was third yesterday after being gambled in to 15-2. ‘Too many near misses’, groans Daqman. We’ll see what happens today.
He won’t run today because the ground is too fast. We haven’t heard that from a trainer since before The Flood. Times they are a changing, and that’s why Fruity O’Rooney misses the Grimthorpe today and goes straight to Cheltenham (Speciality Chase).
Conversely, the dry spell means that West End Rocker swerves today and goes without a prep run before the Grand National, for which the afternoon’s big Grimthorpe trialist is Join Together.
And two of Join Together’s Grand National opponents run in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury, Ballabriggs, the 2010 Aintree winner, and Big Fella Thanks, who won the Greatwood that year.
Last year’s Grimthorpe winner was Ikorodu Road. Matt Shepherd has not lost faith that there is another good handicap in him and the ground has come right: he’s 7lb higher than for the corresponding race in 2012 but the horse he beat a short-head that day, Junior, also drops out of today’s contest.
Calgary Bay has both Cheltenham and Aintree on his agenda, Court By Surprise and Billie Magern several Cheltenham entries, and Mr Moonshine is in the National. Now read my Grimthorpe verdict below.
2.05 Newbury Philip Hobbs is hot and found a 40-1 winner yesterday but Ballytober is claimed off first time in a handicap and is reckoned more of a chaser.
Richard Johnson switches to Destroyer Deployed, who has to bounce back to the form of his Cheltenham third to one of the finds of the season, At Fishers Cross. Blinkers first time could do the trick and 10.0 on BETDAQ absorbs the risk.
David Pipe’s Bygones Sovereign is quirky. Buck Magic has his ground but is high in the handicap. The Romford Pete steps up in trip and Dream Again Boys may now have been stopped by the handicapper.
Monetary Fund is too easy to back this morning at 10.5 and has to give weight all round. That leaves Iron Chancellor, at 13.0 on BETDAQ, who is better than the bare form and gets a stone from half the field.
2.40 Newbury Tom George, who has won this race before, has Desperate Dex still thriving; in fact, never out of the first two this season. He likes some cut but not a heavy slog, so things should be ok for the old boy this afternoon.
He’s run some fine races recently in open handicaps but it would be very unusual for a 13-year-old to score 18lb higher than his last winning mark, even in a veterans’ race.
Compare with Hey Big Spender, who has dropped 11lb below his last successful rating after struggling in the winter mud.
Tartak also has his ground, and is 15lb lower, but this is a trip too far for him on all known form. It’s not soft enough for Sona Sasta, but Michel Le Bon is working well at home again and is another one today who may benefit from the application of blinkers, though 5.7 as I write is on the skinny side for what he’s done lately.
2.55 Doncaster This is usually won below 11st but higher weights have scored in two years when the ground has been good. Punters get this race right: there hasn’t been a winner at an SP greater than 11-2 for eight years now.
I’ve already talked about some of these in my intro, but have to return to Join Together on ground we’re now told he prefers, which underlines his tremendous feat over the Aintree fences in December, beaten a neck trying to give Hello Bud 18lb on heavy.
Will a Grand National horse be fit today? With 50-grand in the treasure chest, you bet he will, and Paul Nicholls seems delighted with the change of going.
Night In Milan is another who has waited for his ground and wherever Court By Surprise is he should be also but, because those two are closely matched, you have to accept a 7lb claimer, while the stable jockey rides Corkage because he can’t do the weight.
Strictly on their Doncaster running in December, Corkage could beat both but he’s difficult to win with and the fact that those three horses are ‘all of a heap’ in the handicap suggests that a touch of class in the shape of Join Together can teach them all a lesson.
3.15 Newbury The stats say not to look at anything which is a double-figure price; on the other hand, the favourite has won only once in the decade and 11-2 to 9-1 captures eight of the winners.
It will be a major surprise if Thomas Garner can produce The Betchworth Kid in the way that he got Kuilsriver home at 33-1 a fortnight back.
Horses aged five and six dominate: there’s been just one winner outside that age range in eight seasons. But it’s a wide-open market at 7.0 the field on BETDAQ this morning.
In the belief that Sporting Boy – hiked a stone – has come to the end of his run, I shall keep faith in Tango De Juilley (7.8 on BETDAQ), for whom I had very good news on the last day, and I reckon Princely Player far too big at 15.0, back to the trip and ground of his narrow Listed defeat at Kempton.
3.30 Doncaster Yet again today, big-odds SPs just don’t happen: seven out of eight winners have been covered by a low-price range of 5-2 to 11-2, with 8-1 the exception.
The Reveleys do well. They won it in 2008 and again last year, both well supported. The 2008 winner followed up to be third the following year, so form-figures of 131 with three starters in five seasons.
Aaim To Prosper looks a handicap snip and must be placed but Cue To Cue has been laid out for this by the Reveleys, suited by a sound surface and crying out for this step up in trip: 7.0 on BETDAQ goes straight to my pocket from the tip of the Cue..
3.50 Newbury Nothing above 11st 5lb has won this since way back, and there’s been only one winner over the age of eight in the decade. The stats say any price you like, as long as it’s trained by Paul Nicholls (five wins and a neck second in seven years.
The Ditcheat champion warns that Pacha Du Polder is a morning glory but he has laid out The Knoxs for this race. We haven’t seen him since he fell over today’s CD in November but he goes exceptionally well fresh.
Pepite Rose is another who’s swerved the heavy ground and her stable is in fantastic form. I’m worried about the mare’s form when back from a break: 0303. On the plus side, she loves Newbury, so the placing by her trainer is significant.
Another French-bred, Garynella, also an improving six-year-old, is reckoned the business by David Pipe in a race the yard has done well in.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.2pts win DESTROYER DEPLOYED, and 1.6pts win IRON CHANCELLOR (2.05 Newbury)
BET 4.2pts win MICHEL LE BON and 3pts win HEY BIG SPENDER (2.40 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6.5pts win (nap) JOIN TOGETHER (2.55 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5pts win CUE TO CUE and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) AAIM TO PROSPER (3.30 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.4pts win TANGO DE JUILLEY and 2.1pts win PRINCELY PLAYER (3.15 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5.7pts win THE KNOXS and 4.4pts win PEPITE ROSE, plus 3pts (stakes saver) GARYNELLA (3.50 Newbury)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.7pts win JOIN TOGETHER at 18.0 on BETDAQ (Aintree Grand National)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points at the BETDAQ offers he took, unless otherwise stated.
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