WHAT A SUNDAY JOINT! A National, a Cesarewitch and a Goodwood sprint all come under the Daqman microscope, as he tries to make up for a crazy Saturday of outsiders with a jackpot spree in three Sunday handicaps. Of course, he won’t be betting at any bookies’ joint but at Betdaq value.
LAYS RUN ENDS AT 10 IN A ROW: Daqman’s latest successful lays sequence is at an end after 10 in a row, the last eight of them losing favourites. His longest sequence is 16 and he’s also hit 13 twice. Watch for the start of another record attempt.
‘I DID IT MY WAY’ END-OF-THE-SEASON TRIUMPH: Daqman begins his column by paying tribute to Frankie Dettori’s Cesarewitch jockeyship, as he charts the final days of the title race. Today Fallon is at Goodwood. Hanagan, leading 142-135, has no rides.
Where’s Frankie? Punters trying to get out after a tricky season will be following the jockeys’ title race, sure. But those on 25-1 Never Can Tell in the last big handicap of the season yesterday never had such a friend as Frankie Dettori.
And those who emptied their wallets on Cesarewitch day to turn Keys into one of the biggest gambles of the season wish they had a friend: any friend (lend us a tenner!)
If this column had suggested that Dettori dare ride his own race, without company, down the middle of the track on a front-runner with the worst-of-the-lot stall 36, I would have been the laughing stock of Fleet Street. But he did.
And it was a day like that. It was the day of yet another Ballydoyle outsider of two in the Middle Park (Crusade 25-1) and of Jim Bolger’s hold over the Dewhurst (Parish Hall 20-1). Tipping horses was never such a nightmare.
So where IS Frankie? Well, at least I can give you the nod on that one. You’ll have to wait until Salisbury tomorrow. What’s the matter: you have Kieren Fallon and Richard Hughes at Goodwood today!
Yes, I know Hughes was on that huge Cesarewitch gamble, Keys, and that he was 5lb better with yesterday’s third, Colour Vision (though Keys had come out on top that day at Ascot in July).
Yes, I know Fallon on Kazbow, drawn next door to the winner on Saturday, was 4lb better off for a neck with that one on Chester form last month but used Kazbow up early.
Yes, I know I’m rubbing it in. But I thought we shouldn ‘t underestimate what an amazing job Dettori did. It was full value for the flying dismount, apparently after telling trainer Jamie Osborne, before the race: Don’t give me any instructions; I’ll do it my way.
Hughes and Fallon are at Goodwood, and there is no Northern meeting, which gives Fallon a chance to claw back some winners on champion and current leader, Paul Hanagan.
I’m still saying Fallon for the title, particularly with Richard Fahey spent up on talent for the season: 14 runners at York on Friday, all – rightly – ignored by Hanagan; just one winner from eight there yesterday, an abysmal Fahey weekend total of 1-22.
I predicted Fallon could win it by six, and he is in fact ahead of my schedule on winners within the time frame, right up to the bonfire of the vanities on November 5th.
But Hanagan keeps hitting back and Fallon can’t afford to miss a trick – like his five-card trick at Goodwood this afternoon – so Tagula Knight, Forest Edge, Surrey Storm, Marajaa and Battery Power must yield something.
2.35 Goodwood: The last time we had sprint handicaps at Goodwood was at the big meeting in August when 14 of the first 15 home in the Stewards Cup raced on the far side: first three by stall 18-13-1. Same thing happened in the Stewards’ Sprint: the far side had it, with the result by stall 3-16-17.
You can see see from those results, as in the Cesarewitch, jockeys’ maneouvring won the day: it didn’t seem to matter where you were drawn as long as you took the right line.
The first three were ridden by Fallon, Dwyer, Cosgrave (in the Cup) and by Norton, De Sousa, Hanagan (in the Sprint).
Fallon is the only man among those who is there today, riding Tagula Night, who comes from behind off a fast pace, with Goodwood form of 101, and with wins in his CV on both firm and soft surfaces.
Another come-from-behind gelding, Elna Bright, could be a big threat, kept mostly to longer distances, but with form figures of 32101 in sprints.
Tagula Night is 9.0 and Elna Bright 19.5 as I write. I realize both my bets are in high stalls, so I’m adding La Fortunata (12.5), who’s just struck form and was consistent last season when she did so (acey-deucy sequence of 221122)
4.15 Curragh (Irish Cesarewitch): Nothing over 9st wins this on the stats and no rank outsiders: 16-1 tops. In fact, the ‘weight carried’ stats recommend the first four in the betting, all under 16-1 this morning and all set to shoulder between 9st and 9st 2lb. But none are with stables in form.
Of the four, Minsk is up in grade and being claimed off; Dimona may prefer the going on top; and Much Acclaimed’s success has come in slowly-run races.
The ‘drifter’ (if 6-1 paper favourite to 13.5 can be called ‘drifting’) is English Summer, the Mark Johnston raider. You’d have had to back 82 horses in the last fortnight to have been certain of trapping Mark’s 18 winners, so I always find it hard to tip one of his.
The one who looks lined up for a killing is Capellanus (11.0), with Fran Berry booked by Edward O’Grady, one of the few trainers in the race who looks reliable on this day: he’s had five placed from his last six starters on the Flat.
Bremen (a massive 26.0) has had ‘sighters’ of some of those at the front of the market, with this race as his target all along.
4.35 Limerick (Munster National): Not since Foxchapel King at the turn of the century has the winner shrugged off more than 10st 12lb to take this.
Mouse Morris, who trained the ‘King’, won it again two years later (Brownie Returns 2003) for my old friends, the Dalys, whose company used to sponsor the Irish Champion Hurdle and whose excellent company of the convivial variety I remember well at the Aintree Grand National.
Mouse gives himself three chances today – though one’s a reserve – with Tinakelly Lad, third in the race to Golden Kite last year, and Elysian Rock, both setting puzzles for punters. One hasn’t been out for a while and, when the other one came back, he was stone last.
Elysian Rock is regarded in the yard as the class horse of the pair and he’s won when fresh, though hasn’t really got his jumping together for the bigger obstacles.
For Bill has been a fabulous mare up to 22f. She has never tried today’s trip before but her pedigree (Presenting out of a Bob Back) says ‘no problem.’ So, despite the big weight, she is unexposed.
Bideford Legend was the gamble of the Kerry National and ran a courageous second to a horse to follow, Alfa Beat, on ground too soft. The going is better than that today but the fine Listowel effort cost him another 5lb in the saddle.
Uncle Junior stays all day and, at the revised ratings, could make up the six lengths Bideford Legend beat him by that day.
The one I like at the weights is For A Finish, a solid performer recently who beat Bideford Legend, giving poundage – now receives some – over today’s course and distance last backend.
But I can’t help thinking that For Bill is the class animal of the race and, with the going not too deep, she could do a Foxchapel King.
I made a million-dollar first half to the 2011 Flat (see Archive) and mixed Daq Multiples today are an attempt to get back some losses since. But, of course, the fat lady sings on Saturday, champions’ day at Ascot. We can rely on Betdaq exchanges to provide us more big prices then, so it ain’t all over until then.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 3.7pts win TAGULA NIGHT, 2.4pts win LA FORTUNATA and 1.6pts win ELNA BRIGHT (2.35 Goodwood)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: 3pts win CAPELLANUS and 1.2pts win BREMEN (4.15 The Curragh)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 3.9pts win FOR BILL and 2.4pts win FOR A FINISH (4.35 Limerick)
DAQ MULTIPLES: half-point mixed doubles and trebles Tagula Night, La Fortunata and Elna Bright (2.35 Goodwood), with Capellanus and Bremen (4.15 The Curragh) and For Bill and For A Finish (4.35 Limerick).
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