10-1 BECHER WINNER WAS 14.5 JACKPOT BET FOR DAQMAN: Describing West End Rocker’s 14.5 on Betdaq as ‘massive,’ Daqman named first and third in two jackpot-sized wagers for the Becher Chase at Aintree yesterday: WEST END ROCKER WON 10-1 BALLYVESEY 3rd 20-1
TWO BIG WEEKEND GAMBLES OUT OF TWO: He followed up a 15-point bet on Fingal Bay (WON 4-5) on Friday with a maximum-stakes banker (20 points) on Al Ferof (WON 4-11) and made 34 profit in the two days.
Make your own rules if you want to win money. We Betdaq punters don’t have to be slaves to bookmaker advertising, like Pricewise, who is obliged to try to dig out big odds (big odds are not necessarily big value) from small fields at Fairyhouse today.
There may be jackpot bets elsewhere. My rule for a jackpot bet is simply this: I normally bet to win 20 points but, if a race or a horse merits a target profit of 30, 40 maybe 50 points, I increase my stakes accordingly, like the 40 I went for in the Becher.
Where my methods and those of Pricewise converge is that, inevitably, there is usually more value to be found in quality races, with the level of form more reliable. That’s why I said ‘race or horse’.
Where Pricewise and I diverge again is that I can usually get better value on Betdaq, the West End Rocker 14.5 being a case in point; he was 12-1 with the large majority of bookies.
2.00 Kelso (Monteith Champion Chase): Paul Nicholls is ‘up from zomerzet’ with Take The Breeze put into the race by conditional-find Harry Derham’s 7lb claim. But he’s won only a novice event inside two years.
Merigo, the Eider Chase and 2010 Scottish National winner, would surely have been better suited to the Scottish Borders National (2.30), even though he would have carried top weight.
Always Right ran third when Merigo was second in this year’s Scottish National but has a Kelso CD win on soft ground which gives you confidence for today.
Chief Dan George has probably dropped far enough down the weights to get into contention here and is also a CD winner, whereas Sa Suffit’s good November runs – including in higher grade – have kept him top end of the handicap.
Yet another CD winner is Skippers Brig, who will relish the ground. He goes extremely well fresh and the weight received by him and by Always Right should see them beat the improver, Sa Suffit.
I could be well wrong but Take The Breeze is making a price for me; he didn’t even look fluent over hurdles on his reappearance but Team Ditcheat often turns up with the right tom-tom route, just when you think they’ve lost their way with a horse.
2.30 Kelso (Scottish Borders National): The six to finish in the Becher Chase yesterday were spread-eagled 239 lengths. It won’t be quite that bad at Kelso, with its more modest fences. But soft ground should sort the men from the boys over this 4m.
Outlaw Tom has just won over 4m on soft, and emerged from novice class only in the autumn; clearly on the upgrade but would be a tough nut indeed to repeat that 4m triumph within little more than two weeks.
Having said that, the last winner of this, L’Aventure (2009), had run second in the Southern National at Fontwell, with the races a similar space apart, though we knew L’Aventure as a battle-hardened slogger, nine times in the first five from 12 races from the start of the 2008 winter season.
Nine De Sivola can claim 12 out of 13 consecutive completed races in the frame, but he hasn’t won a single one of them; indeed hasn’t scored for almost six long years.
Ballyfitz also has a massive record: 15 out of 20 in the frame in completed starts. He’s had just the one win in three years but has been keeping Listed and Graded company and put in a fine run back when runner-up at Cheltenham recently.
Ballyfitz’s problem today is that he has to give weight – and three and four years – to more than one potential improver: apart from Outlaw Tom, you have Eyre Square and Lockstown, and Captain Americo has done well on the course (3m 3f winner there).
But the one I like is Beamazed (9.8 as I write) He’s been running well over 3m or so, winning his races when heavy ground has brought his stamina into play.
Today the seven-year-old at last makes the step up in trip that befits a son of Silver Patriarch, out of a Le Moss mare.
It’s a big day for Beamazed’s trainer, Malcom Jefferson, who saddles The Panama Kid in the Paris Pike (1.00), bidding for a four-timer against Lie Forrit, who has reportedly schooled well but has a long, long absence to overcome.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) THE PANAMA KID (1.00 Kelso)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 6.6pts win ALWAYS RIGHT and 4.1pts win SKIPPERS BRIG (2.00 Kelso)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win BEAMAZED and 1pt win (stakes saver) BALLYFITZ (2.30 Kelso)
DAQ YANKEE: Our Joe Mac (12.30 Kelso), El Mondo (1.10 Warwick), First Lieutenant (1.20 Fairyhouse), The Panama Kid (1.30 Kelso)
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