‘HIDDEN’ DAQ VALUE AT 12.5 IN FIRST BIG RACE OF 2012: Daqman, who has won or been second in his last five jackpot attempts, spots 12.5 for a trainer in form, and rates a strong jockey and course experience as the factors for finding the big-race winner.
12-1 SECOND IN FINAL JACKPOT BET OF 2011: Daqman just missed out on his two jackpot races yesterday, with Torphichen (2nd 12-1) and Ballyvegan (2nd 15-2), following winners at 10-1 and 100-3 since Boxing Day. A double with Hurraboru (WON 7-4) and Fingal Bay (WON 1-4) helped ease the pain.
Favourites are a handicap at Cheltenham today. This has been a bad day for market leaders with only two successful out of 27 since 2001 in the three terrestrially-televised handicaps.
The opening novice chase has come to the rescue of punters with a 50% strike rate for favourites since 2004 and just one winner bigger than 4-1 for 10 years.
1.05 Cheltenham Six of the last eight winners of this have been seen in the Arkle (3), Jewson, RSA and Gold Cup at Cheltenham, including My Way De Solzen, Arkle winner of 2007.
It’s a two-horse race, according to the market, but Alan ‘Invictus’ King is missing strike (only three winners from 12 placed in the last two weeks), and I suffered for my support yesterday, with Walk On and Torphichen both in the frame without winning.
In any case, it’s hard to oppose Sonofvic after his close second to Grands Crus, who is the novice to beat in any event he chooses.
1.35 Cheltenham Celestial Halo reminded us yesterday that class can carry weight, and this race saw three winners in four years carrying 11st 12lb., with age no barrier (one was six, two were 10).
Given such varied returns, only one favourite has scored in the decade but only one was bigger than 8-1. For some reason, this is a veterans’ race.
Ten of the 15 declared today were aged in double figures and, since one of the arts of betting is to look for the improver, the handicapper is laughing at you here; he knows it all, or most of it.
What you look for now are those he’s dropped in the ratings: can either Mon Mome (18.0) or Richard’s Sundance (6.4) take advantage? Mon Mome and The Sawyer have both won at Cheltenham, which is another edge.
2.10 Cheltenham (Victor Chandler Chase) Only Fondmort (2006) was market leader at the ‘off’. SP favourites have finished 02304 since then.
Fondmort was also the sole winner for 10 years to carry more than 11st 8lb, and they are claiming off the top two in the handicap today.
But, equally, five horses are out of the handicap, resulting in claimers aboard three of them. Only senior jockeys win this, and they do so on horses familiar with the course.
Every one of the last nine winners had raced at Cheltenham before; in fact, they logged a quite staggering total of 47 appearances on the course before their respective VC Chase success.
In today’s field, Hector’s Choice and Renard are newcomers to Cheltenham; Calgary Bay (10 runs), Ghizao (seven), Hell’s Bay and Matuhi (four runs each) are those with most appearances there.
Renard, Pickamus and Hector’s Choice are likely front-runners, with Duke Of Lucca in the van. His chance could be boosted by Solix earlier on the card (1.05); they finished one-two at Ascot over this distance.
Ghizao failed at this trip in December and Michael Flips – a distance winner at Kempton – might not get it at Cheltenham, particularly if it rains, according to trainer quotes in the trade paper.
Hidden Keel’s yard can do no wrong and, like Duke Of Lucca, he is on the upgrade and has strength in the saddle today; both are distance winners; both are potential improvers at the age of seven. They are 12.5 and 6.4 respectively as I write.
2.25 Musselburgh Desert Cry, Marsh Warbler and Palawi have all attempted the big southern tracks but are now back in their comfort zone.
Marsh Warbler is the stand-out, after running up to Grandouet and then finishing fifth at Ascot but you just question that Raya Star race now, let down by Rigidity yesterday.
Cheltenham didn’t suit Palawi but he will be much more at home today, and the 9.8 is appetizing.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win RICHARD’S SUNDANCE and 1.1pts win and place MON MOME (1.35 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 5.5pts win DUKE OF LUCCA and 2.6pts win HIDDEN KEEL (2.10 Cheltenham)
BET 4.8pts win MARSH WARBLER and 2.2pts win PALAWI (2.25 Musselburgh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double African Broadway (12.40 Exeter) and Sonofvic (1.05 Cheltenham)
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