DAQMAN LANDS 13-1 JACKPOT BET: Daqman, the only rival to Pricewise, was so convinced that The Wee Chief (WON 7-1) was value at Lingfield yesterday that he declared of the 14.0 Betdaq morning offer: ‘He should be favourite!’
TWO LAYS UP OUT OF TWO: Daqman promised to attempt his first lays sequence of 2012 and yesterday made it two from two with Art Scholar (unplaced 4-1 favourite).
The course clue clinches it. The stats are obviously going to come down on the side of lightweights over the long trip of the National trial (3.25) in Ireland today.
It is all the more relevant in the mud this afternoon that only one winner in the last decade has been able to carry more than 10st 11lb.
But another significant factor may be that all 10 had already finished in the frame at Punchestown, most of them first or second.
I’m excluding the two top-weights, and deleting the old boys Inoma James and Florida Express: Inoma James won this race two years ago but is not the force he was then and Florida Express beat just three home in his only win in more than three years.
Of the top-weights, Up The Beat (holds Marble House) is from the stable of Hedeghunter, winner of this in 2003 but not the winner at Aintree until 2005.
He’s had only two runs over fences and Willie Mullins, who also won the race last year, reckons he has a ‘stiff’ task at the weights, though should relish the step up in trip.
Start Me Up is also a horse with a future, doing well to run third to Seabass last time but, though raised only 4lb, has 21lb more to carry than he did that day.
Leggy Lad enters unknown territory at this trip and Mouse Morris says only ‘with luck’ will the step up in distance suit Tinakelly Lad. By the same token, Hidden Crack is a half brother to Cue Card and Portrait King is related to 20f horses.
Of the remainder, Drive On Jim, Miss Pepperpot, Droim Toll, Lurgan (fourth last year but currently out of form) and Smoking Aces have all been in the frame at Punchestown.
Droim Toll has been well supported in races against Drive On Jim and Smoking Aces under Paul Townend and could reach the frame, though it’s hard to see him winning.
Miss Pepperpot got three miles when runner-up to Drive On Jim on today’s course early in the month but her free-going style is a worry over the extra distance.
In Great Form and Smoking Aces clearly give J P McManus a cracking chance of taking this prize and I put them ahead of Drive On Jim, whose recent success was in a weak contest.
In Great Form is bred for the job, by Flemensfirth out of a Saddlers Hall mare, and strolled home at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day; while Smoking Aces won a furlong further than today’s trip at Fairyhouse in December.
That form, Adrian Heskin’s 5lb claim and the horse’s past ability at Punchestown tilt me toward Smoking Aces in the mud but In Great Form is just that and, though he’s up in the weights, is unexposed at today’s trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6.25pts win on each IN GREAT FORM and SMOKING ACES (3.25 Punchestown)
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