DAQMAN’S 16.0 DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY BETDAQ WINNER: It was a difficult day of big sprints yesterday but Daqman still managed to find a BETDAQ-value big-hitter: he named Van Ellis (WON 8-1) at 16.0, almost double your money between morning exchange offers and bookmaker SP.
105 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Daqman, who had 44 points profit on Friday and 61 points on Wednesday with BETDAQ value punts, also spotted the ‘too big’ offers yesterday about Itlaaq (3rd 15-2 from 12.0) and dared to nap it.
LOOK OUT AT GOODWOOD! Yesterday’s 16.0 winner and 12.0 third are just the sorts of price-wise attacks you can expect from him at Glorious Goodwood. So look out for more Daqman value spotting on BETDAQ. And, though missing from his portfolio recently, the return of his amazing lays.
It’s not been a good summer for my lays system. Bad weather and fluctuating ground have made the form difficult to fathom, and my system is to lay only favourites and paper favourites.
There are times you could jump in against a favourite as the going changed. But, more often than not, the top-of-the-ground horse left in when the ground became soft was soon on the drift in the morning. I couldn’t, in all honesty, have tipped it for a lay.
And, if I had done so, Murphy’s Law might have leapt in and that 2-1 shot become 8-1 would have romped home, leaving me nursing the loss of eight times my stake. Ouch!
At the same time, those long-odds-on ‘good things’, which I also love to tilt against, have been winning: you can’t lose much laying Frankel, Camelot and Black Caviar but, then again, this season you can’t win against such horses either!
Only nine SP favourites scored at the whole of the Glorious Goodwood meeting last year and with, hopefully, the weather more settled, I intend to return to the lays system this week.
I don’t like using that word ‘system’ – no system except sheer hard graft has ever won money in the long term – but I mean by that word my plan to win 72% of the time, laying only those favourites, at a level 10 points.
I also carefully use the phrase ‘SP favourites’ regarding the Goodwood stats, since those winners may not have been all-day favourites (like Frankel will be), where they are never unseated from the front of the market, whatever support there is for anything else.
As I’ve said before, there’s a whole study module for the discerning punter here: which does best, the all-day favourite or the new favourite (i.e. the one that takes over at the head of the market)?
Of those ‘new favourites’, I personally lay hyped horses and those which ‘move’ because they are in Pricewise or they are a jockey’s tip or pundit’s rave notice.
Those I take heed of – and back, not lay – are those that become new favourite after a strong interview on air with the trainer. Few trainers want to look stupid on air, tipping a loser whereas tipsters on a salary don’t mind: they often look stupid, but enjoy rave headlines for just the occasional win, and have contracts with their newspaper that are not easily broken!
I remember a famous sports writer being ‘on his way through the door’ after a bad spell of work – or rather no work and all beer! – when he won the sports-writer-of-the-year award, and negotiated his ‘return’ to the same newspaper for a massive fee.
I remember a sports photographer sidelined by his editor and one of his portfolio photographs put on the ‘spike’. Imagine if you will, the editor’s face when that photographer won ‘sports picture of the year’ after sending in to the adjudicators a copy of the one he’d had spiked.
I remember, too, a national-newspaper tipster who couldn’t tip his cornflakes into a bowl but kept his job for years on the strength of going through the card at Kempton Park the night the editor just happened to be invited for dinner there by ‘Never A Quarrel’.
OK, I’m the lucky one: my tips can usually survive even level-stakes scrutiny because I name them at BETDAQ value. With that in mind, I’m looking at the races at Glorious Goodwood to see when favourite wins. And, for my lays, when it doesn’t win.
I’m also checking out the trainers’ favourite races, and one or two advance stats. I put up Mark Johnston as the man for this weekend and for next week; he has so far rewarded me with Van Ellis (WON 8-1) and Hajras (WON 5-2). You can be pretty sure there is more to come at his favourite southern meeting.
2.00 Goodwood Tuesday: Not a single winning favourite in sight! In fact, 10-1 to 20-1 winners seven times in nine years.
Sir Michael Stoute has had two losing favourites in the last three years, since Gulf Express won for him at 10-1 in 2008.
2.35 Goodwood Tuesday: Both situations reversed, with five winning favourites in six seasons, and ‘Stoutie’ (I mean, of course, Sir Michael) with three winners in eight years. Mark Johnston has won twice (2002 and 2011).
2.35 Goodwood Wednesday: One for favourite backers, with six winners in nine years, and eight out of nine at 4-1 SP or shorter.
3.10 Goodwood Wednesday: Frankel’s Sussex Stakes is expecting its fifth consecutive winning favourite, with three of the last four at odds on though, of course, not as short as he is likely to be, nor as long as he was last year (13-8 on).
3.45 Goodwood Wednesday: Roll up, roll up, and get on the green! Like the opener on Tuesday, not a winning favourite in sight in the decade.
Strangely, there’ a similar story, too, regarding Sir Michael Stoute: he’s had two winners in five years but also in that time two beaten favourites.
4.55 Goodwood Wednesday: Here’s an intriguing one. Though this is a handicap, the usual suspects – the top handicap trainers – have hammered home hot favourites: Bell, the Hills’ yard, Charlton, Fanshawe and Noseda (2).
2.05 Goodwood Thursday: One of Mark Johnston’s races, landing gambles with Road To Love (2006) and Roman Republic (2009), but John Gosden has had three winners in this, including two favourites since 2003.
2.55 Goodwood Thursday: Favourites are going for a four-timer; Richard Hannon for a five-timer.
3.15 Goodwood Thursday: Six out of eight winning favourites, with successful odds-on shots provided by Aidan O”Brien, both with Yeats, two years apart.
3.45 Goodwood Thursday: They is or they ain’t for favourites these Goodwood races! No two ways about it.
After the deluge of hot winners earlier on Thursday, this one hardly ever gets a market leader home (one joint-fav, in 2007). Winning SPs are returned from 7-2 to 16-1, with the Mark ‘brothers’ (Johnston and Tompkins) responsible for winners at 12-1 and 16-1.
2.00 Goodwood Friday: Luca Cumani hogs this race (three winners and a third from six runners in eight years). No winners at double-figure odds (SP) in the last decade.
2.35 Goodwood Friday: One of Mark Johnston’s favourite races but hasn’t had a runner in it since back-to-back wins in 2006-7. Can’t wait for the five-day decs!
3.10 Goodwood Friday: Mark Johnston again; his last two runners both won (2009-10). Roger Charlton also had back-to-back wins (2007-8).
4.20 Goodwood Friday: Nurseries are Richard Hannon’s game and he has had three winners of this in the last decade.
4.50 Goodwood Friday: Older horses have no chance: it’s three-year-olds 6, four-year-olds 4 in the last decade.
5.25 Goodwood Friday: Want to get a favourite home? You’ll be lucky! Only one has won this century (2007) and most SPs in the last eight years have been between 15-2 and 16-1 (six out of the last eight).
3.55 Goodwood Saturday (Stewards Cup): Every decade there’s a big punt or two (Autumn Sunset and Petong in the 1980s), Danetime (massive in 1997), Pivotal Point and Zidane (in the Noughties), and Hoof It last year, winning like a Group horse in a handicap; only he wasn’t a Group horse (Group form figures since: 0300) and hasn’t won another handicap!
Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 20 Stewards Cups; five-year-olds 6; six-year-olds 2. Take out those hot gambles and SPs are 10-1, 12-1 (twice), 14-1 (five times), 16-1 (twice), 20-1, 33-1, 40-1 (twice). Trainers to note: Roger Charlton, David Nicholls.
Be lucky! Follow the right trainers. Follow the right races for favourites and outsiders. But don’t follow the mugs to the bookies. Get BETDAQ value! I’ve proved its worth in this column time and again
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place BETTERAS BERTIE (3.20 Pontefract)
BET 12pts win (nap) RUGGED CROSS (3.50 Pontefract
BET 2pts win and place GLOBAL CITY (4.20 Pontefract)
BET 1pt win and place KAYFTON PETE (4.20 Stratford)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
