9-1 AND 6-1 IN ANOTHER DAQMAN SATURDAY SPREE: Saturday-king Daqman named four winners on the big-race cards yesterday: Victrix Ludorum (WON 9-1), Skilful (WON 6-1), Hawaafez (WON 9-4) and Ghurair (WON 7-4)
16-1 AND 9-1 JACKPOTS IN BIG HANDICAP TREBLE: Skilful’s Challenge Cup success was his third consecutive Saturday jackpot winner of a big handicap, following Bronze Angel (Cambridgeshire, WON 9-1) and Captain Ramius (Ayr Gold Cup, WON 16-1).
20.0 ARC ‘GREEN’ IN THE BETDAQ ORANGE: The big Arc questions today are: Can Camelot redeem his reputation? Will the top trial won by Saonois produce another Arc laurel? Is the Japanese raider, Orfevre, a champion? One of Daqman’s answers is to take a filly called ‘Green’ in the Betdaq orange at 20.0.
12.55 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye) The draw and the ground are expected to play major roles at Longchamp this afternoon, and Robert Cowell has contrived to get soft-surface performers Monsieur Joe and Spirit Quartz in stalls 5 and 9.
I’d leave it at that and dutch for the man from Six Mile Bottom but Richard Fahey has done such a grand job with Mayson, first big hit from my horses-to-follow lists, and he’s got a kick start from stall one.
Monsieur Joe is good value on BETDAQ at 11.5 when you consider that his jockey today, Olivier Peslier, won on him over CD three weeks ago.
Spirit Quartz has twice seen the rear end of Ortensia; there’s nothing of the Aussie’s calibre here. Mayson really needs 6f but it will seem like that today, and she made all in the July Cup. Will take some catching.
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac, Grand Criterium fillies) Some 50% of winners of this had scored in a CD maiden in September. That gives you Silasol, running for the Wertheimers instead of Single, who was beaten only a head by Peace Burg at Chantilly.
So the BETDAQ offers of 3.85 Peace Burg and 8.6 Silasol didn’t make sense to me this morning. I’m having such a bad run with my lays, or I’d oppose Peace Burg, and she could step forward again.
England and Ireland have strong opposition representing top trials like the Moyglare and the Fillies’ Mile, but I’ve had Agent Allison (8.0) on my horses-to-follow list ever since she ran up to the ill-fated star Newfangled at Royal Ascot. Her family has no problem with soft-heavy ground.
2.05 Longchamp (Prix Lagardere, Grand Criterium colts) Since Olympic Glory’s only defeat has been by Dawn Approach, he is a worthy favourite here, but Ballydoyle – once won 7 out of 10 Criteriums – is value here at 5.6 Pedro The Great, as one that’s already won a Group 1 and likes testing ground.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) If you are looking to Shareta or Solemia in the Arc, Pirika (a tempting 10.5 on BETDAQ) is the filly that split them, when runner-up in the Vermeille.
Izzi Top is the saver and the Arc warmer for England and John Gosden, but she’s is a replacement for The Fugue, who would have hated the ground. And, of all the offers this morning, Pirika’s is plain ‘wrong.’ So I’ll nap her on value.
3.25 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) If in doubt, back an improver. In this Arc that never was, with many of the stars missing, you want horses coming to the race comparatively fresh and improving, and with the ability to act on heavy ground.
Spot those that continually stand out in the stats and in the conditions. Every pound on the back will count, so progressive three-year-old fillies, getting up to 11lb, could be the value.
Age: Three-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 Arcs: Bayrir, Camelot, Ernest Hemingway, Great Heavens, Kesampour, Masterstroke, Saonois, Yellow And Green.
Draw: 21 of 24 Arc winners and runners-up this century came from stalls 1 to 10. Ten winners were in 1 to 8, where you find Aventino, Camelot, Ernest Hemingway, Great Heavens, Haya Landa, Saonois, Solemia, Yellow And Green.
Form: Previous success in a Group 1 is essential: Bayrir (Grade 1 in USA), Camelot, Great Heavens, Masterstroke, Meandre, Orfevre, St Nicholas Abbey, Saonois, Shareta.
Going: Winners on very soft or heavy are Camelot, Great Heavens, Kesampour, Mikhail Glinka, Sea Moon, St Nicholas Abbey, Solemia. Winners on soft: Masterstroke, Orfevre (Saonois, very soft, walked over).
Jockey: Frankie Dettori (three Arc winners) Camelot; Olivier Peslier (3) Solemia; Christophe Soumillon (2) Orfevre; Gerald Mosse and Ryan Moore, one each: Bayrir and Sea Moon.
Trainer: Leading trainers at the Arc meeting are Alain de Royer-Dupre (Bayrir, Shareta), Andre Fabre (Masterstroke), John Gosden (Great Heavens). Top stable for 3-y-o: Alain de Royer Dupre 9-23; bottom Aidan O’Brien 0-41.
Trial: The Prix Niel (four winners, a second and third in 10 years): Saonois, first; Bayrir, second; Kesampour, fifth.
Verdict Saonois is a horse with a telling burst of speed, which you’d expect to be damped down on today’s ground, and French Derby winners have a poor Arc record.
Admittedly, Saonois won the major test, the Prix Niel but, stalking all the way, Bayrir was hardly asked a question, finishing well to be runner-up. Has Christophe Lemaire got it wrong? He seemingly prefers last year’s runner-up, Shareta, who won’t like the ground.
Bayrir also stands out as a horse that’s always had this race as his target: that’s the last thing you can say of Camelot, who is hoping to pick up the threads after the Triple Crown slipped from his head in the St Leger.
Did he also lose the Arc there, because he had a hard race, or did he fail then because the Leger was slow run and they sprinted at the finish before he could get into top gear? Is he able to peak again?
Godolphin’s Masterstroke, related to Arc winners Urban Sea and Sea The Stars, has also had this race as his target but, for me, the improver who’s been lucky with the draw and loves the ground is Irish Oaks winner, Great Heavens, set to cap a great season for England’s champion trainer elect, John Gosden.
However, the Arc is rarely run on heavy, so the stats may be misleading: you can imagine the speed horses floundering, and the stayers being able to come from behind, such as Masterstroke and Yellow And Green.
I think the fillies’ 3lb allowance may also be useful, so my three against the field are Great Heavens (7.8 on BETDAQ), Masterstroke (13.0) and Yellow And Green (20.0), whose family like it soft.
I compared those Masterstroke offers with 9-1 Betfred, Sunderland and the Tote; and Yellow And Green at 14-1 Ladbrokes, Sunderlands, Bet365. Come on Green; you’re already a winner in the orange!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.4pts win MAYSON, 2.8pts win SPIRIT QUARTZ, 1.9pts win MONSIEUR JOE (12.55 Longchamp)
BET 2.8pts win AGENT ALLISON and 2.6pts win SILASOL (1.30 Longchamp)
BET 4.3pts win PEDRO THE GREAT and 2pts win (stakes saver) OLYMPIC GLORY (2.05 Longchamp)
BET 2.1pts win PIRIKA (nap) and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) IZZI TOP (2.40 Longchamp)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.4pts win GREAT HEAVENS, 2.7pts win MASTERSTROKE and 1.5pts win YELLOW AND GREEN (3.25 Longchamp)
* Unless otherwise stated for jackpot returns, Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you can work out the offers taken (20 divided by stake).
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