BACK-TO-BACK NAPS AT CHELTENHAM: It was almost a repeat of Day One as Daqman landed his nap and an outsider for the second day running at Cheltenham yesterday. His nap Far West (WON 15-8) came on the heels of Dynaste (WON 7-4).
7-1 AND 7-1 AGAIN: Shooters Hill (WON 7-1) on Friday was followed by Goulanes (WON 7-1) yesterday. On Friday he warned that Kid Cassidy (unplaced 9-2 jt fav) was a false favourite, and yesterday he declared Hunt Ball (pulled up 9-1) was a place lay.
MASSIVE BETDAQ VALUE: His Saturday Daq Value races were way ahead of SP: the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Henrietta Knight Chase – each with 106% lists of offers – had SPs adding up to 129 and 125%. Betdaq has beaten SP by 13-2 in his nominated races this week.
11 BEST BETS UP IN THREE WEEKS: Daqman’s superb naps sequence has now notched up 11 winners in three weeks’ racing, as follows: 112101313112010210211.
Memories are made of this meeting. If you thought you saw champions yesterday, just look at the past winners on today’s card. Let’s hope the weather doesn’t spoil it. Race by race, it’s solid gold; check them out:
Azertuiyop, Al Ferof, Fair Along, Thisthatandtother (1.10), Punchestowns, Grands Crus (1.25), Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe (2.50), Sizing Europe again, plus Diamond Harry and Champion Court (3.25), finally Rock On Ruby and Rhinestone Cowboy (4.00)
1.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Trophy Trial) In-form Paul Nicholls (when isn’t he in form?) won this with an Arkle winner in 2002 (Azertyuiop). He bids for a five-timer, and six out of 10, in a race he took last year with yesterday’s impressive Al Ferof.
If the mud wasn’t flying, I’d call upon the stats to condemn the seven-year-olds, including his Rebel Rebellion (they’ve won only once in the decade); likewise the four-year-olds (1-10, too).
But the requirement bar none on this final day is the ability to plough a furrow, and mud seems to suit Captain Conan, described in the trade-paper stable tour by Nicky Henderson as his ‘big white hope’ for the novice-chase scene.
Punters weren’t happy with His Excellency’s tail-swishing when he went past Third Intention over CD last month and have demoted him in the market behind the horse he beat.
1.45 Cheltenham Young horses win this (five-year-olds 6, six-year-olds 3 in the decade), seven out of nine off 11st or lower. It will be tough to lug a big weight this afternoon, and tough for a four-year-old like Well Sharp but, as a Selkirk, he should enjoy the soft surface.
You look to an Irish horse to enjoy a mudbath but, ironically, Jessica Harrington brought Beachdale Lad over in the search for better ground. Her other runner, Maller Tree, is high in the weights but tough as nails.
David Pipe thinks a lot of Neptune fourth Close House but the big and scopey Ruben Cotter, running for his arch-rival, Paul Nicholls, took over market leadership on BETDAQ this morning. I’m dutching the two.
2.05 Fontwell (Southern National) Front-runners Double Chocolate and Quentin Collonges should make this a true test, with ‘Quentin’ having his first race after a wind op.
Henry Daly says in the trade paper ‘most of mine have needed a run’ but Quentin Collonges’s form after a break is 131 and he may not be for stopping.
Kaybeew is with the right yard for a race like this and, at seven, has improvement in him. The 9.8 I see this morning on BETDAQ is on the generous side.
2.20 Cheltenham Sadly no Sprinter Sacre, and Wishfull Thinking has done his best work on a sounder surface. The improver, Doeslessthanme, gets a bullish word from Paul Nicholls and has prepped for this with a racecourse gallop.
2.50 Cheltenham (Racing Post Hurdle) This is the handicap that can produce champion hurdlers, or nearly so. Seven out of nine years, it has gone to horses aged four and five.
Khyber Kim (2009) managed to win with 11st 9lb on soft ground but other weight-carrying performances by future stars (Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City and Menorah) were on good, or good to soft.
There’s a strong Irish contingent. Gordon Elliott had to give Cause Of Causes a run to get the freshness out of him but now he’s worried about the 5lb penalty picked up along the way.
Charles Byrnes would prefer another half mile for Domination and Willie Mullins rates Rattan ‘each way.’ Moon Dice has a crack because he was fourth in this last year. Glam Gerry is handily weighted, returning from the big fences, but is eight now.
Darlan’s defection leaves stablemate Cash And Go on a decent mark and I prefer him to Kazlian (interrupted preparation) and Prospect Wells (hard race first run back after breathing op).
If known to have returned to his best, the classy Bothy would be favourite and is a big price at offers of 17.0 after a good run back. As a Pivotal, should love the ground. In fact, has won all his races on soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win on each RUBEN COTTER and CLOSE HOUSE (1.45 Cheltenham)
BET 3.4pts win QUENTIN COLLONGES and 2.2pts win KAYBEEW (2.05 Fontwell)
DAQ VALUE BET 3.3pts win CASH AND GO and 1.25pts win and place BOTHY (2.50 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double CAPTAIN CONAN (nap, 1.10 Cheltenham, Daq Value race) and DOESLESSTHANME (2.20 Cheltenham, Daq Value race) plus two 2pt win trebles the same two with Ruben Cotter and Close House (1.45 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Third Intention (1.10 Cheltenham)
* Except for Daq Multiples, Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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