JUST ONE HORSE FITS CESAREWITCH STATS: Only one horse fits past and present stats for Saturday’s Cesarewitch. The race used to be won by lightweights but in recent years it’s gone to older horses rated 92 or higher. Has the race changed for good?
CESAREWITCH ABC: Daqman presents both sets of stats, the recent and the overall, as one ABC guide. Have we moved to an AB situation? Or is C the operative stat? Check out the form of all 36 acceptors with their key.
A: Six of the last eight winners were rated 92 or higher.
B: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six.C: 12 of the last 16 winners carried less than 9st 1lb.
D: Nine out of 12 finished in the first four last time out.
E: National Hunt trainers have a 50% record since 1998.
F: Five to seven runs so far this season (7 out of 10)
One horse fits both past and present Cesarewitch stats. Kieren Fallon’s mount, Kazbow, is rated 92 or higher (A) but carries less than 9st 1lb (C). Presumably, Fallon could have ridden Veiled or Sentry Duty.
AB MYSTERY STAR Mark Tompkins needs the rain to stay away from Newmarket. With only four runs this year, his ‘Star’ is remembered for finishing fast on firm ground when third in the 2m 2f Chester Cup (Mount Athos fourth).
ACDF KAZBOW Just five runs this season for a horse who went nine races in the first two in 2009-10 and was unfancied this season until starting a similar sequence (122) in June up to 2m. Never raced beyond that and wouldn’t want rain.
ADE VEILED Mares’-Hurdle winner at Cheltenham who has won two Flat handicaps this year. A well-backed winner under Kieren Fallon in the Spring before stepping up two grades to grab the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f, Phoenix Flight third). Not ground dependent.
ADF KEYS Has won both races when put up to 2m, leaping 16lb in the ratings, but not seen since July and has been off colour recently, according to his trainer. Never out of the frame. Richard Hughes rides.
AD COLOUR VISION Has won handicaps only in small fields but strung them out in style when taking the Phil Bull Trophy – stepped up to 2m 2f – on a sound surface at Pontefract on Monday.
AE BIG OCCASION Just five races in his life. Always in the first two, winning (1m 6f) 21-runner Curragh handicap on the soft, until tackled 2m 2f in Cesarewitch Trial on firm last month; favourite but finished only ninth. Needs rain.
AE SENTRY DUTY Getting on for three years since his heyday but sixth in last year’s Cesarewitch off 5lb higher mark. Trainer noted for reviving old-timers but deserted by Kieren Fallon.
AF MOUNT ATHOS Shot up the handicap when winning the Melrose at the York Ebor meeting last year but very good fourth from bad draw in Chester Cup (2m 3f firm) in the Spring and same place again in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock in July, before less than five lengths off the winner in the Ebor.
A BERNIE THE BOLT Won the Cesarewitch Trial (2m 2f) in 2009 but missed the race itself and returned to 2m last year (won Shergar Stayers) after flopping in the Chester Cup. Not seen since last August.
A DAYIA Promised more than he’s achieved (2m wins both on soft ground). Fourth in both the Ascot Stakes (2010) and the Queen Alexandra there (2011) but last of nine back at Ascot in July behind Keys.
BCDEF GIFTED LEADER Better known as a hurdler but four Flat runs this year – second to Veiled at Newmarket in May – culminating in 1m 6f success at Sandown on the soft in June. Not seen since, and probably needs rain.
BCDE TASHEBA Not won for nearly two years and long losing run after second in (January 2010) Victor Chandler Hurdle at Ascot. First Flat run since fourth in 2009 Queen Alexandra Stakes but has been hurdling again this autumn.
BCE PHOENIX FLIGHT Most successful on AW – six wins and five seconds – but close third to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes in June. Seems better on a sound surface.
CD BOWDLERS MAGIC Consistent but better handicapped recently than when well behind Mount Athos in the Melrose last August. Thitd in the Old Newton Cup; 6th in the Goodwood Stakes (2m 5f) but back up in the ratings and never won off Saturday’s mark.
CDE BEYOND Competed in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham and career best on Flat when winning class-4 handicap (1m 6f) at Sandown last time out.
CDE RAINFOREST MAGIC Pulled off a Dermot Weld double at the Galway Festival – the trainer had a record meeting – first in a 2m Flat handicap, then in a 2m 2f hurdle. He’s 38lb lower on the Flat than over hurdles.
CDF COSIMO DE MEDICI Only a class-4 middle-distance handicapper last year, and well behind Keys at Newbury this July, but stepped up markedly when facing a big ask in 2m 5f Goodwood Stakes (not clear run, fifth) and won twice at Newmarket since, including Cesarewitch Trial last time out. Acts on any going.
CDF DAZINSKI Finished 13th last year off 2lb lower, and beaten this season by both Cosimo De Medici (2m Goodwood, May) and My Arch (2m 2f Pontefract, June). Ninth in Goodwood Stakes but back to form last time; all wins at 2m since 2009.
CDF ERMYN LODGE Up 11lb for quartet of races at Ascot, his only runs in the last year: won the Gordon Carter Handicap (2m) and second to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f). Form on turf over 2m-plus: 211224.
CDF L FRANK BAUM Beaten by Keys in the Brown Jack and behind Cosimo De Medici – 7th of 14 – in the Cesarewitch Trial. Found his level, beating Pateese in 2m 1f class-5 handicap at Bath.
CDF NEVER CAN TELL Right in the thick of it on 2m Chester form, second to Colour Vision followed by neck defeat of Kazbow. Form figures since last June on turf without ‘soft’ in the going return: 322121. Frankie Dettori rides.
CDF REGAL PARK Not won for more than a year (Newbury 2m handicap) but consistent this term and third, giving 7lb, to Cosimo De Medici at Newmarket (1m 6f soft). Seems to handle any ground.
CD BECAUSEWECAN Twice allowed uncontested lead – at Kempton Park and Ffos Las – over 1m 4f and 1m 6f but this is a whole different ball game, and only 11th of 19 to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes.
CD TUSCAN GOLD A Prescott sequence horse at class-4 level (221213 in completed starts) and this is a step up in trip and grade.
CD VALID REASON Good form in class 4 at Kempton but no indication in performance or pedigree that this trip will suit.
CEF ABERGAVENNY Recently completed hurdles hat-trick, all on firm ground, but only Flat win since breaking his maiden was at Windsor (1m 2f) in July 2010.
CEF PALOMAR Last win was victory over Bowdlers Magic a year or so ago but finished well, denied clear run, in the Ascot Stakes behind Veiled. However, well in rear in Cesarewitch Trial.
CEF RIGHT STUFF Twice runner-up in the Queen’s Prize at Kempton (2m) but last of 14 behind Gifted Leader and Regal Park latest start.
CE BUY BACK BOB Small-field 10f winner on firm in summer of 2010, ran well recently in a decent maiden hurdle – also on a sound surface – but has a lot to find here.
CE LA ESTRELLA Six straight wins at Southwell, mainly over 1m 6f, but some claim to fame when, hampered, ran on well, 5th to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes.
CF ASHBRITTLE Won a Doncaster class-4 handicap at just short of 2m last season and going well until involved in a barging match during the Ascot Stakes in June – some problems of his own making – and ducked left under pressure at Haydock latest. Blinkers/visor would help.
C BOW TO NO ONE Has bowed to all in 19 races in 2010-11, barring class-4 (2m) win at York last month. Beaten earlier by Dazinski and also behind Gifted Leader.
C BRAVEHEART MOVE Some 20 lengths behind Dazinski at York (2m) last time out. Related to 1m 4f champion in America.
C MY ARCH Beat Dazinski in the Pontefract Cup in June (2m 2f) but twice behind Cosimo De Medici at Newmarket recently, including when 14-lengths eighth in the Cesarewitch Trial. Was also eighth in the ‘Ces’ last year, off 2lb higher.
C RED ANTHEM Winner in French provinces (1m 7f) but no show first run in England recently.
C TROVARE Last Flat win was July, 2010, but back to form over hurdles recently. Behind Cosimi De Medici at Newmarket earlier.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.8pts win (nap) L’EMINENCE GRISE (2.30 Worcester)
BET 1.7pts win JUST THE JOB (4.30 Worcester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee Never Perfect (2.10 Ayr), L’Eminence Grise (2.30 Worcester), Cool In The Shade (3.40 Ayr) and Castletown Bridge (5.00 Worcester)
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