36.0 WELSH-NATIONAL OFFER MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE BOOKIES: Again today, Daqman goes head to head with Pricewise, this time about the real value in the Welsh National. He finds the hype horse is big but there’s one at 36.0, where the bookies go 10-1.
Betdaq alone has the one thing missing from the Carruthers story.. a value price for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow two days after Christmas.
While Ladbrokes go 7-1, and Coral and Power are 8-1, there was 13.0 on the Daq when I checked it out this morning. After all the hype, and with his Hennessy romp fresh in the mind, I can see him starting as short as 5-1 on the day.
Wymott and Beautiful Sound are on my short list but another knockout Daq offer which must be put in your personal ‘book’ now is the 36.0 about The Minack, declared a definite runner this morning by Paul Nicholls.
Ditcheat voices doubts on current form about whether he will stay but that is absorbed in the offer, which is colossal seen alongside the 10-1 Betfred, Coral and Ladbroke this morning.
And may I remind you that The Minack’s dam, Ebony Jane (by the massive stamina influence Roselier), won the Irish Grand National (3m 5f) over a trip similar to Chepstow’s, trained by Dermot Weld in 1993.
Despite J P McManus runners today at Market Rasen, and a decent card at Wincanton, Tony McCoy is at Leicester, we assume for the Nicky Henderson odds-on duo of Kells Belle (2.00) and Zama Zama (3.10).
But he does have one McManus mount there: I can envisage a big run from Amuse Me (2.35), which is offered at 7.8 because of his recent chase failings.
But take those out and the hurdles form reads 11130 before his run back under Richie McLernon after a three months’ break.
McCoy rode him to two of the successes in his 2010 hurdles hat-trick, completed off a mark only a pound lower than he carries today.
Edgebury looks a glass horse (very little racing) and has been overtaken at the front of the market this morning by Grams And Ounces but, though that one is useful on the Flat, he’s shown ‘nothing’ over obstacles to date and is being claimed off.
Richie McLernon is an able enough deputy for A P on the McManus runner Canal Bank (1.50) at Market Rasen but, when Team Twiston-Davies, puts a horse up to a stamina trip, you have to take notice.
Our Columbus needed all of Chepstow’s 3m to get home in the Spring in only his third steeplechase, goes well fresh and might well enjoy this 3m 5f today.
Apart from Twiston-Davies, if you add Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Nicky Henderson and Don McCain, you trap a huge slice of the steeplechase prizes on the sharp right-handed Rasen track.
With nearly six grand to the winner, all those bar ‘Twiston’ have turned out for the novices’ handicap chase, a little feast of a race at class-3 level.
Four horses are within 0.4 of each other at the head of the betting, yet the Betdaq overround is just 109% as I write. You take your pick from a tight market, but at least it’s punter-friendly.
Night In Milan was giving a proverbial ton to the winner when a close second at Sedgefield; Rossbrin, from the stamina-laden Flemensfirth line, and Larks Lad, a Bob Back out of a Strong Gale mare, are all appealing but I shall take a chance with Lucky Landing.
Lucky Landing, placed in Irish Points, was always destined to be a chaser: he suddenly takes the big leap from hurdles to fences and from 2m 1f to 3m 1f, handicapped like a good thing, and a tasty 5.2 on Betdaq.
There’s a similar story of patience and potential around Sang Bleu (1.40), who is in a tough-looking beginners’ chase at Wincanton but that’s after attempting the heights of Grade 2 last term.
The Silver Buck (2.10) will surely not be won by old-stagers of 10 and 11 and Tarquinius hasn’t been seen for nearly two years.
Upham Atom was second in the Somerset National on this course but the stable hasn’t had a winner under Rules since around that time and giving 11lb to the in-form Just The Job after 224 days’ absence will not be easy.
Just The Job is a forcing type, ideally suited to this track which, like Market Rasen, is a right-turning oval, with similar dips and rises (but a quite different run-in).
So check through the form at these two meetings for right-hand-best performers: for instance, Henry Hook, Jigsaw Dancer, Dragons Den and Tony Star seem favoured in the handicap hurdle (2.45).
Philip Hobbs has had two wins and two placed from six attempts at this race and Tony Star appealed to me at 5.9.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20pts except where stated) 10pts win SANG BLEU (1.40 Wincanton)
BET 6.2pts win OUR COLUMBUS (1.50 Market Rasen)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) JUST THE JOB (2.10 Wincanton)
BET 4.7pts win LUCKY LANDING (2.25 Market Rasen)
BET 2.9pts win AMUSE ME (2.35 Leicester)
BET 4pts win TONY’S STAR (2.45 Wincanton)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: Kells Belle (2.00 Leicester), Amuse Me (2.35 Leicester), Just The Job (2.10 Wincanton), Zama Zama (3.10 Leicester)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT 2.5pts win CARRUTHERS and 0.8pts win THE MINACK (Coral Welsh National, Chepstow December 27)
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