DON’T MISS THE WINNING SYSTEM ON BOXING DAY: Whenever possible Daqman stakes each main bet to win 20 points and spreads his bets so that one winner will more or less break even on the day; more than one and he is quids in. In fact, he managed to edge three winning days during the week.
TODAY: Be a smart-ass and stay ahead of the game, says Daqman about the stats and facts you need to win money.
TOMORROW: Daqman analyses one of the most intriguing King Georges. It’s the Boxing Day showdown between old rivals, Long Run and Kauto Star. Look out for his ABC assessment.
They’ve missed a cracker! I greet the array of stats and facts in the Racing Post with mixed feelings: I’m glad of them in that they sometimes reduce my daily workload, but they also cost me money.
In the good old bad old days, I did all the research myself, knowing that so few punters (or Pressmen) had the time or the motivation, so I knew I could often get ahead of the game, get odds bigger than they should be.
In these days of spoon-fed facts from computer assessment, there is no excuse to be short on information and, with a level playing-field in the Betdaq markets, therefore no excuse not to make money.
It really began for me when I saw the puzzled look on the faces of journalists in the racecourse Pressroom, and shock-horror headlines the following day, when a long-odds-on shot with a top trainer ‘got beat’ in a major race.
No one but no one writing those stories had bothered to check on stable form. If they had, they would have found that the trainer had had 41 consecutive losers, including seven flopping favourites, only two of which had even reached the frame.
Something was clearly wrong in the yard; my story warned to forget the race; giving my reasons behind the result. I ran the gauntlet (‘smart ass!’) of fellow scribes but have never since done a day’s betting without such relevant information.
In the difficult days at the end of the year, horses returning to action over jumps can be divided into those who need a run or two to get straight and those who go well fresh (more on that in my King George preview tomorrow).
Today the Racing Post tells us that Quiamo Malta (2.40 Hereford) has won before after a long absence; he may well win today, but I am more interested in the one they’ve missed, Mallusk, in the same race.
And I might be glad I don’t leave my stats entirely in the hands of the Racing Post Signposts, since Mallusk is a special case.
It’s not just that he wins when fresh; he only wins when fresh, and has hitherto never failed to win each year when fresh!
In 2009, after four races in the Spring, he had a long holiday until the November, when he reappeared for his new yard at Uttoxeter and won a hurdle by six lengths at 12-1.
In 2010, Mallusk had two races – in January and March – then had another long break until December, when he was backed down to 3-1 and won a handicap chase by 10 lengths.
In 2011, he has also raced in January and March, and is also making his return in December, here today at Hereford, forecast 10-1 but already half that at 6.0 on Betdaq after early-doors trading.
Credit to the Racing Post Spotlight, which has outdone the stats page Signposts, by noting on Mallusk: ‘both wins after a lay-off.. one to catch fresh’.
Incidentally, t’other one, Quiamo Malta, who’s also had a long lay-off, is 50.0 as I write and, unless there is a move later on, appears to be unfancied.
Southwell punters will note that Kieren Fallon is riding there; four mounts. But a glance at that Signposts page has you wondering: can he ride Southwell?
Fallon has had the leg up on 31 horses in more than eight years at the Rolleston Junction track – according to those Racing Post stats – and never had a winner.
Kieren is on Andiamo Via (2.30), which my poor Italian translates as ‘come this way,’ but the stats say don’t. So do Betdaq backers: he’s eased to 10.5 at time of writing.
No surprise that they’ve come for Chookie Avon (5.2), whose turf form suggests that he will be at home on this easy surface, with a draw – stall one – which gives him another advantage. And he’s got a jockey (Jim Crowley) who is on the hot list of riders for Southwell.
Tony McCoy is at Hereford for two outside yards he does well with: Gary Brown’s (Chestnut Ben, 1.10) and Rebecca Curtis’s (Hodgson, 3.40).
Chestnut Ben needs soft-heavy ground to be at his best and he’s got it here. Beau Colonel has drifted like a dog on a raft to 11.0; Chilbury Hill likewise (9.6), but the ‘mover’ is Opera Og in his first handicap and first chase under Rules (won his only point).
Free Advice (1.40) steamed in to second spot behind market leader Advisor this morning and, since the other stables in the race, including that of the big drifter Sahrati, have failed to have a single winner among them recently, I bet accordingly.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win OPERA OG and 4.8pts (stakes saver) CHESTNUT BEN (1.10 Hereford)
BET 5pts win FREE ADVICE and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) ADVISOR (1.40 Hereford)
BET 4.7pts win (nap) CHOOKIE AVON (2.30 Southwell)
BET 4pts win MALLUSK (2.40 Hereford)
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