TOO EARLY FOR TRIUMPH WINNER: Daqman warns against the Grumeti hype, and puts the Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle into perspective today. When might the winner appear? He’s got stats for that, too.
It’s Wallys and Grumeti. Every year bookmakers fill their satchels with half a dozen Triumph Hurdle favourites and a lot of so-called ‘gambles’ on the race. This year they have excelled themselves.
Grumeti, a faller yesterday, and who has beaten only one other winning hurdler in his entire racing life, is favourite with one big firm at only 7-1. Don’t be a Wally and back him.
Betdaq punters have got it right at this stage, leaving Grumeti as third favourite but, even then, he will find it difficult to hold his place as the juvenile hurdles develop real Triumph contenders.
In the last two years, the Triumph winner did not score in England until February 26 (Zarkander) and February 27 (Soldatino). The year before that the winner came out of a little race at Ascot. Now called the Twitter Juvenile Hurdle. On Saturday.
Taunton has its big day today with more than £40,000 to the winner from the seven heats. And you’ve got a Grumeti in the very first race.
Like Grumeti, Dualla Lord (1.20) was building a reputation; like Grumeti, it crashed when he fell.
But the grey didn’t just fall in any race; he was travelling strongly behind Grands Crus in a novice chase at Cheltenham, only four lengths off the leader when he came down.
His principal opponent today, Nelson’s Bridge, hasn’t jumped a twig in public, and the next one in the market has to give him 6lb.
Intriguingly, Ifyouletmefinish has leapt to the front of the market in the second novice hurdle (1.50) on the strength of being 15 lengths off the winner on his debut over CD. The winner that day? Grumeti.
Pau Nicholls’ Pearl Swan will give the hype something of a test, receiving 11lb from Ifyouletmefinish. The pair are clear in the market.
Nicholls has Ranjaan (3.20) floated near the foot of the hurdles handicap, getting 21lb from his market rival, Third Intention, who tries to do a Hey Big Spender for the Tizzards, dropped in class but saddled with top weight.
Ranjaan’s objective at Cheltenham is the Triumph Hurdle, for which he’s 18.0 against Grumeti’s 9.2, as I write.
Moose Moran could bounce back, first time in blinkers; CD winner Drumshambo comes into it but has eased in the betting; so, too, Devil To Pay a glass horse who would do well if on song.
Ludlow looks a case of buying money, with Barry Geraghty over for the Nicky Henderson rides on the odds-on shots Kid Cassidy (3.10) and Brave Alliance (3.40). Geraghty has a huge 41% strike rate there.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 15pts win (nap) DUALLA LORD (1.20 Taunton)
BET 5.5pts win RANJAAN (3.20 Taunton)
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