ROYAL ASCOT: FALLON BOOKED FOR HUNT CUP COUP: After a quiet year since the horse went close to winning the Britannia, Kieren Fallon’s mount has been the subject of strong support for the Royal Hunt Cup. Daqman also picks out a filly whose Royal Ascot chance is on the line at Newbury today.
What fits the Royal Ascot bill? Should the punter be looking for long-term planning or a sudden surge to form when he analyses the three-day super-festival next week?
The market for the Royal Hunt Cup reveals that one horse with modest recent form is strongly fancied after being campaigned with this race as his target since the meeting last year.
Meanwhile, today alone will decide whether a once-raced filly can take a sudden leap forward and warrant a place in the Ribblesdale line-up.
Belgian Bill (Royal Hunt Cup): Despite two ‘duck-eggs’ in handicaps at Meydan and a recent defeat on AW at Wolverhampton, Belgian Bill is as low as 14-1 with bookmakers and only 17.0 on BETDAQ for the Hunt Cup.
You could say that Bill’s moment of glory, or ‘near glory’, was his second in a Group 2 on Polytrack and he returned to form when runner-up at Wolver in a Listed.
But trainer George Baker has been ‘looking after’ Bill’s handicap mark on turf ever since he got within threeparts of a length of success in the Britannia at Royal Ascot a year ago when giving weight to the winner.
Bill’s AW pattern-race exploits since have cost him only a 2lb rise, and Baker has booked former champion jockey, and still a man for the big occasion, Kieren Fallon for Wednesday’s ‘Hunt’ for the big pot over the same CD as the Britannia.
Trainer Baker is red hot right now: he made it three winners from seven starters in three days with a gambled-on favourite at Yarmouth yesterday.
Devine Guest (Ribblesdale Stakes): Meanwhile, Devine Guest goes to Newbury today as a maiden after only one run with next week’s Ribblesdale in trainer Mick Channon’s mind.
Channon, who is having a great resurgence, has always been a star trainer of fillies, and shocked the Classic scene recently when Samitar won the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
A win for Devine Guest in the Lord Weinstock Memorial (3.25) would also be further confirmation of the rise and rise of jockey Martin Harley, who so coolly rode Samitar to her victory at The Curragh.
Devine Guest is out of a Sadlers Wells mare and showed her liking for some cut in the ground when third over today’s CD in April behind subsequent Oaks fourth, Vow; she has blossomed since and is ‘highly regarded’ in the West Ilsley yard.
Apothecary finished further behind Vow in May than Devine Guest had done in April and the Channon filly’s main dangers may be Albamara, a Galileo out of a mare whose sister won the Champion Stakes over today’s trip, and Apothecary’s stablemate, Great Heavens.
Great Heavens also showed a penchant for a soft surface when hacking up at Yarmouth last month, albeit from a small field.
At BETDAQ offers as I write, 8.8 Devine Guest appeals, with a saver on Great Heavens at 2.24. The rest of the Newbury card is low grade.
Even when the horse you train is Frankel, it would be nice to have a home-form boost before Royal Ascot. But is Henry Cecil’s 5-2 on shot at Yarmouth (2.10), Tickled Pink, a bridesmaid.
She’s been second three times in a row now, the last twice as favourite (odds on) or jointly so, and at 1.43 on BETDAQ this morning, I’ll take her on against two stables capable of scoring first time out: Jeremy Noseda with Fairest and John Gosden with Palmette.
I’ll take Palmette, a sister to Showcasing, and 6.4 on BETDAQ, to land me a double whammy in the race, and then I intend to play up the winnings (famous last words) on another filly, Cantal (3.50).
Despite being a daughter of soft-ground sire Pivotal, Cantal acted well on a fast surface on a speed track at Goodwood last time out, her first run of the season, and she shoud be sharp enough now to cope with this modest handicap.
Nottingham has a class-2 sprint (4.10), and all the runners bar Masked Dance and Mon Brav can be described as class-2 horses.
Doc Hay is in a losing fight with the handicapper, who refuses to drop York Glory, despite three consecutive defeats. Marine Commando has so far failed to cope with 6f.
Cheveton and Docofthebay are once-a-year-horses these days, and Damika’s gap between wins is two years. Swiss Cross and Piazza San Pietro must have firm ground.
So it is that I have taken Steps toward a bet on Roger Varian’s four-year-old, a tasty 5.8 on BETDAQ. Looked progressive last season; excuses both runs back.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts TICKLED PINK and BET 3.7pts win PALMETTE (2.10 Yarmouth)
BET 2.5pts win DEVINE GUEST and 2pts win (stakes saver) GREAT HEAVENS (3.25 Newbury)
BET 12pts win (nap) CANTAL (3.50 Yarmouth)
BET 4.1pts win STEPS (4.10 Nottingham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble Devine Guest (3.25 Newbury), Cantal (3.50 Yarmouth) and Steps (4.10 Nottingham)
* DAQMAN’S BETS are staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated, so you know by dividing 20 by the stake, what offers were available to him at the time of his making the selection.
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