11.5 AND 9.2 BETDAQ VALUE IN SPRINTS: Daqman finds big stats differences between two sprints today at Haydock and Epsom but, as ever, spots value (at 11.5 and 9.2) on BETDAQ.
9-2 RUMH WAY TO WIN: Daqman made it 12 winners in five days when Rumh (WON 9-2) obliged under Frankie Dettori at Kempton Park last night.
Haydock: I’ve never really fathomed why some sprints go to older horses and others don’t. In the last decade, only one over the age of five has taken the 3.50 today, with another key factor the form in the race of Eric Alston.
Five of his eight runners have reached the first three, and he has Barkston Ash (11.5 on BETDAQ this morning) back in his hat-trick winning form of last season, landing a gamble at Hamilton a fortnight ago.
Sprinters rarely put back-to-back wins together; this one does, though he may not want any rain. That would suit the unexposed top weight, Magic Secret, and another sequence horse, the favourite, Best Trip, but he’s not well drawn in stall 3.
On the other side of the field in 15, Hills Of Dakota (offers of 8.2) should be ready now after his run back last month, and with the David Barron yard having had six winners in the last fortnight, five of them in sprints.
Racing off 21lb higher than for the first of his hat-trick, Best Trip can be opposed (at 3.05 in the green this morning), with Magic Secret, Barkston Ash and Hills Of Dakota on your side, and no fewer than six others in the field having finished in the frame last time out.
Epsom: The best race at Epsom tonight is also a sprint (class 3 at 7.10) but this one has gone to older horses for six years now; only one winner under six.
And there’s no doubt in my mind that the eight-year-old Mac Gille Eoin (9.2 on BETDAQ as I write) has been geared up for the race, which he won in 2009 and again in 2011, both off higher marks than today.
There are two other CD winners in the race: Baldemar (offers of 6.0), making a solo journey South for Richard Fahey, and Swiss Cross, who won at Epsom on Derby day last year but didn’t get the fast pace he needs, returned to the track for a repeat last month.
Yarmouth: Peter Chapple-Hyam has sprung into life, though such an image is highly inappropriate to the paunchy laid-back St Gatien trainer.
Three wins from his last five runners represent 37% of his entire 2012 total which, significantly for the opener at Yarmouth (2.10), includes a 50% strike rate with his juveniles.
Only one of his six two-year-old starters has failed to reach the first two, and three have won. Hasbah, by the same sire as Sea The Stars, and related to a Group-1 two-year-old winner, is 7.2 as I write because the race contains two Royal Ascot failures.
Ajmany was taken off his feet in the Windsor Castle and today’s extra furlong should suit; Ocean Applause, seventh in the Norfolk Stakes, has looked overfaced and one-paced.
The 9f handicap on the card (4.10) is the only other race to feature anything halfway like quality: Ajmany’s yard has a big chance with Strada Facendo, which means something that happens while you’re walking through life.
That’s just what the eponymous Street Cry colt did at Haydock – slowly away at walking pace – but finished second over 7f; it was his best effort yet and the step up in trip should suit.
I can’t fancy a Selkirk colt, Disposition, on the fast ground; Take Two didn’t beat much at Goodwood; California English looks one-paced; and Touch Gold had to drop back from handicap company into a modest maiden to get off the mark.
Newbury: With so many stables, the fitting of blinkers seems to be desperation, but Hughie Morrison’s shrewd use of first-time blinds (four winners from nine runners) suggests an improved run for No Compromise (8.00), particularly with the yard’s best-strike-rate jockey Jimmy Fortune up.
The worry would have to be Baheeja, first time in a handicap for Roger Varian. She has been withdrawn before now from races on good to soft, so much depends on whether Newbury dries out or sustains more rain (20% chance). Will this ‘summer’ never end?
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win HASBAH and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) AJMANY (2.10 Yarmouth)
LAY 10pts BEST TRIP, and BET 2.7pts win HILLS OF DAKOTA, and 1.9pts win and place BARKSTON ASH (3.50 Haydock)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) STRADA FACENDO (4.10 Yarmouth)
BET 4pts win BALDEMAR and 2.4pts win MAC GILLIE EOIN (7.10 Epsom)
BET 2.7pts win NO COMPROMISE and 0.8pts win (stakes saver) BAHEEJA (8.00 Newbury)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. They are geared to this level return so that you can easily assess profits and loss.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (1.9pts win and place would be £19 each way).
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