ALBAMARA THE CLASS ACT, SAYS DAQMAN: Going for a fifth consecutive nap to be placed – two winners out of four (1123) – Daqman plumps for the classy Albamara, Sir Mark Prescott’s Hamilton raider.
40.0, 12.0 11.5, 9.8 BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman has also searched out some big BETDAQ offers at 40.0, 12.0 11.5, and 9.8 across the six cards he examines for bets this afternoon and tonight.
4.00 Hamilton (Glasgow Stakes) Looked an absolute cracker, with nine horses showing a total of 17 wins in their last six form-figures, but we’ve lost some to the bad weather.
While most are taking a step up to Listed level, Goldoni and Naseem Alyasmeen are dropping back from Group class. ‘Naseem’ just has the edge on the ratings with her fillies’ allowance.
Ed de Gas (one of the withdrawals) left her for dead at Catterick but was behind Goldoni at Lingfield, though Goldoni has disappointed at big prices since.
So maybe the answer to the topsy-turvy form is Albamara, a Galileo whose stable is 36% at this track, and who was considered worth a crack at the Group-1 fillies’ mile last September.
Not given a hard time on her return last month behind the subsequent Lancashire Oaks winner, Great Heavens.
5.30 Bath: Opt Out, Kicken Off and (sometimes) Indian Affair are front-runners but Kwanto, who also likes to lead, is thrown in for a trainer who has had one runner, one winner, in this race.
Assuming Katia Scallan can lose 3lb in the sauna this morning, Kwanto has a 25lb pull with Windforpower, though the difference was only 5lb when they met over CD in June: 40.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
But the tearaway trio could set the race up for Belle Intrigue (5.8 offers), out of her depth and hating the fast ground at Royal Ascot, but earlier pipped Kicken Off on the soft at Brighton first time out.
6.10 Epsom (Ladies’ Derby): With 29, Sarah Brotherton has had a dozen more Flat turf winners in the last five years than the rest of the riders in this race put together.
Her mount, Epsom Salts (9.8 on BETDAQ at the time of writing), has form on the track which figures as 11310240 and has always needed two or three runs in the month before success, as he has this time.
Encircled and Carrowbeg have not raced on the Flat for more than a year, but Carrowbeg (11.5 offers) has been switched to Lawney Hill, who does well with cast-offs and has probably helped the cause by gelding him; this is his first run since.
6.45 Leopardstown (Silver Flash Stakes): Snow Queen attempts to follow up a Ballydoyle treble in this race, though still a maiden, whereas all three of their previous winners had scored last time out and were at the front of the market.
Snow Queen ran very green over CD a fortnight ago but it’s hard to see her overturning nearly 10 lengths with Reglisse, who in turn has been left well behind by Harasiya over the same CD in faster time.
Rawaaq and True Verdict are already proven on today’s surface but Harasiya could be something special and is bred, by Pivotal, to appreciate the ground.
8.30 Doncaster: Almost a third of David Barron’s first-time handicappers win, and Nova Sam has also been gelded since his last run: I had a speculative pound at 40.0 early doors.
I couldn’t understand why the Racing Post nominated New Hampshire as favourite (out to 10.0 on BETDAQ as I write) and the new favourite, Kenyan Cat, a Chester lover, doesn’t appeal here.
Novirak is another big price – 12.0 offers as I write – for one who will like the ground and reappeared in a Newmarket handicap full of winners: first, second, fifth and ninth have also won since.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win (nap) ALBAMARA (4.00 Hamilton)
BET 4.1pts win BELLE INTRIGUE, and 0.5pts win and place KWANTO (5.30 Bath)
BET 2.2pts win EPSOM SALTS and 1.9pts win CARROWBEG (6.10 Epsom)
BET 9pts win HARASIYA (6.45 Leopardstown)
BET 1.8pts win NOVIRAK and 0.5pts win and place NOVA SAM (8.30 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Albamara (4.00 Hamilton) and Harasiya (6.45 Leopardstown)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing..
* Points are what you make them: units of stake, which could be £5, so that 5pts win is £25 (5 x 5) or £10, or £20; whatever is your betting level. Daq Multiples are not included in the staking strategy.
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