WORTHY ST LEGER WAGER: There’s value to be found in the BETDAQ ante-post lists on the St Leger and the Arc, says Daqman.
LUCKY CHARM THE NAP AT KEMPTON: Daqman waits until the very last race of the day to find a Charm of a nap for Frankie Dettori at Kempton.
The nights draw in: so do the odds for the autumn big races. The St Leger and the Arc are already up on BETDAQ and, sure enough, reveal the usual gulf between exchange and bookmaker.
The art of ante-post betting is not to try to pick the winner but try to pick a ‘target horse’ that’s a bigger price than it should be and the Betdaq-bookmaker gap means you can spot them easily.
St Leger: There is no foregone conclusion in racing – not even in Frankel’s next race – and, though Camelot looks good for Doncaster, one man who makes a habit of winning the final Classic will beg to differ.
With three wins in five years, John Gosden is on a hat-trick after Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel, and among those bang on target for Doncaster is Thought Worthy.
The doubly impressive nature of his win in the key Leger trial, the Great Voltigeur, was that success came despite a big drift in the market to a 9-1 SP.
And that William Buick was clearly confident of the colt’s stamina in taking hold of the race by the scruff of the neck.
Thought Worthy must be on everyone’s Leger short list, witness the 8-1 with Corals and Hills. Yet he was 12.5 on BETDAQ when I cursored the orange.
Arc De Triomphe: Danedream, who has franked his last year’s Arc win, and Camelot – even Frankel in some books – seem sure to take front rank in any Arc market.
But I still think they will be tempted to have another go with Snow Fairy. Last year’s Arc third put up a truly scintillating performance on her comeback to win the Group-1 Jean Romanet, beating the young upstarts of the current Classic year.
She was a tasty 28.0 on BETDAQ this morning, despite offers of only 10-1 with Paddy Power. No wonder PP today announce a hike in profits for the first half of the year.
Back to more mundane matters, and Alan Swinbank clearly has a target today: I’m Super Too’s bid for a repeat in the Scottish Trophy at Hamilton (3.40), with form figures on the course of 1011142 .
But what those figures don’t tell you is that only one of those runs (the ‘2’) was on soft ground, and that his overall form on good-to-soft and soft is 2300320.
Today’s Hamilton surface is heavy, which inclines me towards Another For Joe, a Hamilton winner who was the ‘moral’, just touched off giving weight to the winner on soft ground at Ayr in July and with another good run at Nottingham under today’s pilot Graham Lee.
Henry Clay is on a hat-trick but success has come only in his own age group. When tackling older horses at Sandown, he was only ninth.
Le Chat d”Or has won on the soft but his penalty for winning at Newcastle seemed to peg him down the last twice.
The jumpers are persistent today, with three meetings and early-season winners should be followed, none more so than today when five horses are between 9lb and 17lb well in, according to future handicaps.
Tyrana (4.20) has 17lb to play with! She bids for back-to-back wins at Stratford, getting a stone or so from the top-weight and with the third horse in the market still a maiden.
Of the others ‘thrown in’ because the handicapper is not yet fully in charge, I fancy No Woman No Cry (7.00 Hereford) who is doubly blessed since he also escapes a penalty for his Newton Abbot success eight days ago, because it was a race for conditional jockeys.
The likely favourite, Maid Of Silk, is unreliable with pulled up, won, tailed off Flat, in her blushing CV. Not for me.
Discoverer’s front-running style may play into the hands of Frankie Dettori on Royal Empire (8.50 Kempton). Discoverer has extra work to do drawn wide, but his pace will be vital for Royal Empire, now dropped back to a mile.
I shall be on Dettori again in the last: Triple Charm (9.20), a much better horse on Polytrack, returning to the surface after being drawn wide at Goodwood and with no room when making his challenge at Newmarket.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win ANOTHER FOR JOE (3.40 Hamilton)
BET 4pts win NO WOMAN NO CRY (7.00 Hereford)
BET 8.6pts win ROYAL EMPIRE (8.50 Kempton)
BET 5pts win (nap) TRIPLE CHARM (9.20 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Tyrana (4.20 Stratford) and Triple Charm (9.20 Kempton)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you always know what Betdaq offers he took when he made his selection (divide 20 by the stake). Points are what you make them: if you bet in fivers, 2pts win is £10.
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