BACK-TO-BACK NAPS YET AGAIN FOR DAQMAN: At this time last week, Daqman landed back-to-back naps at 11-4 and 2-1. He’s done it again with a Tuesday-Wednesday treat: Headline News (WON 6-1) and, at Hereford yesterday, Pindar (WON 7-4), trading around 9-2 before a typical Barney Curley plunge.
FIVE LAYS IN A ROW: Also this week, he landed more back-to-back success of a different kind when he completed five lays in a row with a Sunday-Tuesday double of losing favourites, Jabhaat and Leitir Mor.
How to land the naps hat-trick? I’ve been this way many times before and I’ve always been transparent about it and worked through the cards with you, looking for nuggets of form, searching for value on BETDAQ (where else?)
I was crap at Kempton last night, though I might want to look at a class-4 handicap there this evening. But we’re more likely to know the fate of the nap this afternoon.
Salisbury has never been a happy hunting-ground since the days I stood reporter’s notebook in hand, shivering in those wind-swept stands, watching Classic trials there (yes, Classic trials) a lifetime ago.
But it has a sequence of races of supposed quality today, from class-3 right up to a Listed, and with a decent fillies’ handicap named after Lochsong. In fact, the 7f race (albeit 6f 212yd) would have been a bit far for Lochsong, who was one of our great sprinters: Nunthorpe, Abbaye, Strewards Cup, Kings Stand, you name it.
It comes on the same day as news that another fabulous sprinter, Black Caviar, may race again, which itself is hard on the heels of word that Kauto Star may go back into training. You know my views: once a great horse has done its stuff, it should be retired while still fit and well, instead of forcing the engine from a lower gear (Borderlescott or no Borderlescott).
That Lochsong race (3..45) is all youngsters in comparison, with nothing over the age of six but, in fact, three-year-olds have dominated (8 from 10) in the last decade..
The market agrees: the older horses are all in the (16.0) bar, as I write. That’s the second piece of evidence that they won’t win, which seems to knock out four horses and take the 114% BETDAQ list of offers into underround! In theory, you can dutch all eight other horses and win.
My bank – and no doubt yours, too – says we can’t afford to do that, but at least we know we are in a punter-friendly zone and that whatever we choose is likely to be value for money.
Poetic Dancer, unraced since May, is in the bar, and I’m also taking out Elusive Flame: she has twice been allowed to dictate in slow-run races but narrowly failed to hold off Alice’s Dancer last time. ‘Alice’ herself wouldn’t be my favourite filly; she gets stirred up at the start, even with the application of a hood.
Like Elusive Flame, Fillionaire has been trying to make all, succeeding only on the soft at Ffos Las, and comfortably held by My Sharona at Goodwood.
That was over 6f, but it’s My Sharona who boasts the better form over further. They grey is already a dual 7f winner; is from a yard in cracking form; and has Richard Hughes steering her and steering himself to the championship.
Dance Company has yet to prove she is as good on turf as on AW, but Baheeja has improved a stone (on official ratings) since beaten favourite behind My Sharona in July.
My Sharona has gone up only 8lb in that time but has been campaigned in in class-2 and has succeeded in class-3, whereas Baheeja has been beating small fields in class-4 and class-5.
In the Listed (3.15), which is for two-year-olds, Baheeja’s yard has a likely sort in Tantshi. She should improve from Newbury (beat Supernova Heights), though her time was slow. Tantshi, Graphic Guest, Jadanna and El Manati are entered in the Cheveley Park; Rayaheen and Supernova Heights in the Fillies’ Mile.
Graphic Guest has been absent 78 days and is any price this morning; so, too, Supernova Heights, who is being ignored at 20.0, which doesn’t pay much of a compliment to Tantshi.
However, Rayaheen is the most significant drifter, out like a lonely dog on a raft from paper favourite to 10.0, at the time of writing. And Winning Express is the early-doors punt, form of the grey’s Sandown success having been boosted by wins for the third and fourth. She and Leicester record-breaker El Manati ‘could be anything.’
But this race is often won by fillies dropping from Group attempts to this Listed level, the basement for getting some black type for the paddocks. Jadanna is that filly.
She’s been rested since the Molecomb came too soon after her fifth in the Queen Mary and third in the Cherry Hinton. The snag is that Frankie Dettori seems to prefer Supernova Heights, though officially she’s no ‘supernova’, rated 23lb behind Jadanna.
Haydock’s class-3 quality contests are both all-aged, so there is more form to chew on, though again unexposed three-year-olds have won every running (two years) of both races.
Ptolomaic and Justineo in the 7f race (3.35) are dropping back from the pattern but have only a maiden each on their CV and face four Listed winners among the older horses. The ratings are very tight: 106, 105, 104, 103, 102.
For the other class-3 (4.40), the three-year-olds are already clear in the market as I write. Sir Michael Stoute has five winners to show for the five days of September and has Galleon in pole position.
Ustura didn’t beat much at Kempton and Stoutie knows all about that one on collateral form (through Dynamic Duo). However, Godolphin had the winner when Galleon ran second in July.
Brockwell is a CD winner (has won twice at Haydock, in fact) but hasn’t beaten much. In what seems a three-horse race, I put my trust in Stoute at 4.4 Galleon. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win JADANNA (3.15 Salisbury)
BET 6.6pts win MY SHARONA (3.45 Salisbury)
BET 5.8pts win (nap) GALLEON (4.40 Haydock)
* Daqman’s win bets are staked to win 20 points, so divide 20 by his stake to arrive at the offer taken at the time of making the selection.
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