MAKE SPACE FOR DAQMAN’S NEWMARKET NAP AT 5.6: It’s the first day of the Cambridgeshire meeting, and Daqman naps in the very first race at 5.6 morning offers on BETDAQ.
17.0 OUTSIDER COULD COME GOOD AGAINST TRIALISTS: He opposes the two-year-old Group-3 favourite and reckons a handicapper with a 17.0 offer could turn over the trialists in the Jockey Club Rose Bowl.
2.00 Newmarket Godolphin have won two of the three runnings of this race, split between their two trainers, who both have runners today.
But Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope was well clear in the market, odds on this morning, with the form of his maiden franked by the third.
Both Telescope, who was second and Elkaayed fourth in that race (7f Ascot), have big juvenile-race entries, as has Space Ship and Glorious Protector, so maybe the Godolphin runners aren’t so strong this time.
And I fancy John Gosden’s Space Ship at a price (5.6 on BETDAQ this morning). He followed in the hoofprints of the same stable’s Nathaniel when running recently at the St Leger meeting, and has yet to be asked a question.
2.35 Newmarket This time Gosden has the favourite, top-weight Hoarding, but previous winners of this carried less than 8st 13lb; both (10-1 or more) and came from the top half of the draw.
Like Space Ship, Hoarding ran well at the Leger meeting, a more recent outing than any of the fancied horses here, bar Darkening, who won a week ago, first time back after being gelded, but that may also have penalized him out of this contest, taking him up to 9st 4lb here.
Aussie Rules hasn’t done much for the Royal Skies form, and Red Avenger is pegged as ordinary by the form of his Doncaster nursery.
Authorship looked very green when winning at Haydock but has had seven weeks’ break in which he might have been straightened out: 8.8 on BETDAQ over the cornflakes.
3.10 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes) Switched from Ascot, all bar one of the last six winners were three-year-olds, but there is not much faith in the current Classic generation, and the French raider Jehannedarc is favourite as I write.
She is giving away plenty of weight, and none in the last decade has carried a double penalty, which Set To Music attempts. She was giving a stone to the winning three-year-old when runner-up, as favourite, in a Listed at Newbury.
However, she had Khione, Albamara and Qushchi behind, and it would seem that Sequence and Galllipot are the only live three-year-olds in this particular race.
The form line we have is that, when runner-up in her first Listed attempt, Sequence narrowly beat Cracking Lass, who was well behind Gallipot in the race won by Wild Coco at Doncaster, albeit over further. Jehannedarc had earlier run second to Wild Coco over a similar distance at Goodwood.
The results seem to favour Jehannedarc and Set To Music in that order.
3.40 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes) As I said on Tuesday, this race is on a downturn: none of the last three winners have scored again, so I will not be tempted by bookmaker Classic quotes for 2013 about the winner.
Favourites have a very lean time: just one ‘joint fav’ has won in the last decade. Yet the same stables (Hannon 2, Hills 2) crop up since 2006, and Hannon’s Havana Gold is odds on this morning, as I write.
Canary Row was a talking horse after running up to Dawn Approach in May, but failed next time, as did Ebn Arab, one of my horses to follow, after an impressive win at York.
But note that Canary Row had been off for nearly four months before that last-day defeat, and Ebn Arab was taking on the top-class Dundonnell. Are these excuses strong enough?
Well, I certainly see no reason why the Listed winner Havana Gold is six points clear favourite over Group performers in Ebn Arab, Chilworth Icon and Well Acquainted, though they are clearly opting for speed with him, dropped back from his narrow mile success.
I hope the track will play to Ebn Arab’s strengths, not to a speed horse. You have to make decisions like this, and you have to take sides when there is a price differential like 1.87 Havana Goid and 5.6 Ebn Arab. Those offers sway me. I would change my mind if the offers changed but that’s what betting is all about: value.
4.15 Newmarket (Jockey Club Rose Bowl) Older horses have been beaten 8-2 in the decade by those aged four and five, and no winner has carried 9st 6lb solo, like Cavalryman, though Times Up raced jointly off that weight when winning last year.
Again not much recent joy for favourites (1-8), and Cavalryman is prepping for the Melbourne Cup here. So is Lost In The Moment, and Martyr is getting a race into him before the Cesarewitch.
Chiberta King is likely to set a strong pace, and I am tempted to choose from those lightly raced this season who will be fresh and come from behind.
Caucus usually ruins his chances by racing too freely; Berling would have raced over this trip a long time ago if he’d been capable; John Dunlop doesn’t miss those. So I’ll risk my pound that Lordofthehouse can step up here; his three-year-old hat-trick suggests we haven’t seen the best of him yet this season
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts TELESCOPE, and BET 4.3pts win (nap) SPACE SHIP (2.00 Newmarket)
BET 2.5pts win AUTHORSHIP (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win JEHANNEDARC (3.10 Newmarket)
LAY 10pts HAVANA GOLD and BET 4.3pts win EBN ARAB and 1.6pts win CANARY ROW (3.40 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.8pts win and place LORDOFTHEHOUSE (4.15 Newmarket)
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