NOW IT’S FOUR NAPS IN A ROW: Daqman kept his naps sequence going yesterday when Overturn (WON 2-9) romped round Doncaster, and he made it five doubles in three days through Haaf A Sixpence (WON 4-5) at Lingfield.
HE’S SECOND AND THAT’S GOOD ENOUGH: His only lay, Soudain (2nd 5-2), was duly defeated. The previous best bets were winners at 7-4 and 6-5 and a place nap at 5-1 (12.0 on BETDAQ). His profits still stand at around 60 points in three days.
Did they have the North Yorkshire Grand National market upside down last night? The first five in the forecast betting on the Racing Post site to a ‘recommended 122.5% at SP’ were the TOP five in the handicap.
Yet the race has been won for the last six years from the BOTTOM five in the handicap, including two with claiming jockeys taking their weights below the 10st minimum.
Has anything changed this morning? Well, first of all, the forecast outsiders at the bottom of the handicap are even bigger ‘prices’ on the Daq of course and, second of all, as they say, you could bet with confidence that you are in a punter-friendly situation.
The BETDAQ market was nowhere near that appalling (recommended? whose side are they on?) 122.5% but, at the time of writing, at 9 a.m., stacked up to 110% (and that was after Soudain declined to take part).
The message was loud and clear: get on some value down the list in the BETDAQ orange; no horse has won with ‘soft’ in the going return carrying above 10st 11lb.
The favourite, Pentiffic, is weak not only because he is above that weights ceiling but is stepping up into unknown territory – he’s never done this kind of trip and prefers a righthand track – to try to beat the handicapper.
Pentiffic has been raised a massive 15lb for his 14-lengths return to form at Musselburgh the last day. He has just a 7lb penalty until that hike takes effect, so Venetia Williams had very little option but to hope he will stay today’s marathon.
Just 6lb higher and two years younger, Lively Baron looks a better bet, as a class-2 winner over this kind of trip at Sandown Park, and Any Currency’s fourth to Monbeg Dude in November seems good after Dude’s Welsh National doddle.
Night In Milan is consistent but his ‘bridesmaid’ act (seven times in the frame without winning surrounding modest success at Kelso and Southwelll) has seen him rise in the handicap to a mark 16lb higher than he’s won off. Posh Bird won the race last year but is 18lb higher.
Leac An Scail and Desperate Dex get long distances but don’t have the turn of foot at the finish, now rising 12 and 13 years of age and, in any event, Leac An Scail has no chance on the book with Lord Villez on Kelso form.
Lord Villez, on whom Denis O’Regan takes over, has a fab 52% strike-rate from 21 starts on a lefthanded track, so his 5.5 a place looked interesting on BETDAQ this morning.
Jaunty Journey (holds Super Ally on Haydock form) is similarly consistent over long trips and is from a stable noted for its ability to win these events: 13.5 on BETDAQ. My 1-2-3 is Lord Villez, Jaunty Journey, Lively Baron.
The way he’s winning (26% strike rate), at least one of Marco Botti’s four runners should score on AW today. They way he’s placing, you wouldn’t be surprised if they all got in the ‘threes.’
According to the Racing Post website, his current figures are 121320311. Over five seasons, his AW scores for meetings being held today are: Wolverhampton 58, Kempton 30, Lingfield 18 at 21%, 13% and 15% strike respectively.
Botti, who has won with two from a trio of three-year-old runners this year, is on a hattrick after winners at Wolver and Lingfield consecutively in the last two days.
Riding for Botti at Lingfield is Adam Kirby, leading jockey for the yard by a long way. He also has two rides at the meeting for David Evans: Kirby is 1114110 for Evans in the last 10 days.
On this evidence, it seems inconceivable that Kirby will leave Lingfield empty-handed from Lager Time (1.55 Lingfield), Bussa (2.55) and Grendisar (3.55), all favourites on BETDAQ this morning.
But he then goes on for three at Kempton tonight, of which The Mongoose (5.15 David Evans) and Haftohaf (6.45 Marco Botti) are also leading the market in their respective races.
The only worry for Grendisar (3.55 Lingfield) is whether Abraq suddenly takes off in first-time blinkers. His trainer, Ed Dunlop, is currently 1-12 in the use of the ‘blinds’, so not to worry.
The Botti beast Canary Wharf (3.35 Wolver), racing on the trainer’s favourite track, was a huge offer at 7.6, when you consider he’s returning to his winning trip after struggling over further.
Fame Again has won twice at Wolver but not at this level. Saoi and Knowe Head have just had their wins, and horses at this level rarely put up back-to-back success. They don’t have the constitution for it.
The Botti-Kirby combo should round off my day at Kempton (6.45) with Haftohaf. Hometown Glory’s run 11 days ago suggests that he and Lowther (one-two at Lingfield) won’t be hard to beat. You haf to haf a bet!
DAQMAN BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 3.2pts win LIVELY BARON, 1.7pts win and place JAUNTY JOURNEY, 0.9pts win and 2.1pts place LORD VILLEZ (2.15 Catterick)
DAQ VALUE BET: 3pts win CANARY WHARF (3.55 Wolverhampton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 10pts win HAFTOHAF (6.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 6pt win doubles and 2pt win treble Cockney Sparrow (nap, 12.40 Catterick) with Grendisar (3.55 Lingfield) and Haftohaf (6.45 Kempton)
* Daqman bets to win 20 points (so you can work out the Betdaq offer he took by dividing 20 by his stake). This doesn’t apply to Daq Multiples. Daq Value marks races which were between 105 and 110% total probability at the time of making his selections today.
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