EASY-ABC STATS GUIDE TO THE HENNESSY: Here’s Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup card in terms of the stats, horse by horse, with their form and background. Daqman’s tips for today are at the foot of the column.
DARING DAQMAN’S FIVE NERVE-WRACKING LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman is playing right on the edge, landing five successive lays for 50 points profit with all five placed: yesterday’s, Whispering Jack (2nd 9-2), followed Jolly Boys Outing (3rd 5-2 favourite), Arthurian Legend (Saturday, 3rd 9-2), Swing Bill (Friday, 3rd 7-2 fav) and Romulus D’Artaix (Thursday, 3rd 2-1 fav)
HE HAS BEST ODDS IN HENDERSON SEVEN: Daqman forecast a great day for Nicky Henderson but cleverly avoided the short shots and only backed his best-odds winner, Whoops A Daisy (WON 7-2), for 22 points profit on the day.
Young horses win Saturday’s Hennessy. Seven of the last eight winners were aged six or seven (A in the ABC guide against each horse); five of the last six carried between 11st 4lb and 11st 12lb. (that’s coded with a B); six of the last seven had won a Graded race (C); five of the last eight were from the yards of either Nicholls or Pipe (D).
ACD Aiteen Thirtythree Easy winner of small-field novice chases but pulled up when 8-1 for the RSA at Cheltenham. Given a good blow from the front and went down only three lengths to grand yardstick, Somersby, on the reappearance at Kempton.
ACD Great Endeavour The 2010 Cheltenham Byrne Plate winner fell at the Festival this year and was beaten favourite at Aintree but showed massive improvement to take the Paddy Power Gold Cup a fortnight ago, a race in which he’d finished only sixth in 2010.
AC Wayward Prince After a novice-chase four-timer (beat Balthazar King), he ran third in the RSA at Cheltenham, with Aiteen Thirtythree, Wymott and The Giant Bolster failing to finish. But behind Sarando and only fourth when favourite and visored first time in the Mildmay at Aintree.
AC Wymott Four straight wins in 2010, including defeat of Wayward Prince at Haydock, but, after eazy-peazy return from a break in three-runner Bangor race, he was pulled up in the RSA Chase.
A Balthazar King Fell in handicap hurdle at 2010 Festival; has jumped fairly well over fences but winning small-field races, and failed to step up in better-class contests at Ascot and Cheltenham this autumn.
A Billie Magern I put this one in my Ten To Follow, as perfectly placed in the handicap for Nigel Twiston-Davies to exploit in staying races. Not disgraced in Paddy Power Gold Cup and interesting to see how he handles the extra threequarters of a mile on Saturday.
A Quilimar Has twice run well at Newbury, and returned from summer break in fine form at the lesser tracks, with one win and a ‘moral’ when second, giving 26lb to the winner, in Carlisle handicap. This is hugely tougher.
A Sarando Winner in small fields on lesser tracks, and acted very well on heavy. Claim to fame is his neck second in the Mildmay at Aintree, with the winner subsequently champion novice at Punchestown and Champion Chase winner at Down Royal.
A The Giant Bolster Unfancied and unseated rider in RSA and fell in the Mildmay. Again failed to finish when well fancied in the Paddy Power.
BCD Neptune Collonges Old man of the race and – except when winning the Cotswold Chase in January – has been given a hard time, contesting the Gold Cup and Scottish National. Brought down early when 4lb lower in last year’s Hennessy. Trainer says he needs the handicapper to relent in time for the Grand National.
BC Joncol Punchestown Chase winner (heavy) in 2009 and twice third in the Lexus before third spot again in Leopardstown’s Hennessy Gold Cup. Impressive return – though jumping not always fluent – in Listed chase at Thurles three weeks ago (again going was on heavy side).
CD Michel Le Bon Not seen since novicey Newbury win two years ago at this meeting, and stable tour no help.
C Beshabar Scottish Grand National winner after running second in NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. With Grand National the target, he may return as deliberate and slow as early on last season but trainer rates him ‘better and better, race by race.’
C Blazing Bailey World Hurdle third and fourth, he came to prominence over fences with New Year’s Day win at Cheltenham and followed up at Ffos Las. Disappointing at Festival and in Scottish National afterwards.
C Carruthers Has not lived up to promise of good novice career over hurdles and fences but did capture the Mandarin at Newbury (on heavy). Fourth in both Cheltenham Gold Cup and Haydock Grand National Trial, and good run back a fortnight ago.
C Fair Along Often a front-runner, but has struggled in big hurdle races and not won over fences for nearly five years.
C Muirhead Fifth Cheltenham and Punchestown (twice) Champion Hurdles and seemed on the up for chasing with Munster National win in early October before hampered when making his run in big race at Ascot.
C Planet Of Sound Newbury chase winner twice as novice before third in the Arkle. In and out in light campaign since, but good-ground winner of Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown, with Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, War Of Attrition and Denman, behind.
– Tullamore Dew Small-field novice-chase winner who fell in the Paddy Power and rating revised downwards.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win (nap) IL BATTISTA (12.10 Southwell)
BET 4.3pts win AUTHENTIC ACT (2.30 Sedgefield)
LAY to win 10pts RISKIER and BET 4.2pts win CLOUDY DAWN (3.00 Sedgefield)
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