13-2 WINNER IN THIRD DAY OF PROFIT: Daqman made money for the third day running with a devastating winners romp yesterday: Reblis (WON 13-2), Cotswold Charmer (WON 9-4) and Rowan Tiger (WON 5-4) for 21.50 profit, bringing his total to seven returns and more than 45 points in the three days.
On a day like today, I reach out to a class-3 for a bit of quality. But the handicap hurdle at Musselburgh (2.20) is a fake, a class-4 posing as a class-3. Several horses have raced at the higher level but their combined class-3 form (down the card, all races in 2011) is 244000400240FPB030.
The answer to beat the string of failures must be an improving youngster so the winner could well come from the emergent septet, Allow Me (11st 12lb), Jet Master (11st 11lb), Simply Ned (11st 8lb), Zaplamation (11st 3lb), Royal Opera (10st 9lb), Kingdom Of Munster (10st 5lb) and Toledo Gold (10st).
I’m ruling out Dhaular Dhar and Rain Stops Play as long in the tooth for this: they will both be 10 in a few days’ time and the two winners of this race so far have been aged five and six.
The stats are limited but they also point us to a lightweight (10-3 and 10-2 have won the race in its two years).
Simply Ned has paid for his impressive dual novice success with a mark of 117, where Royal Opera, the eased down winner of a class-4 at Market Rasen, has the same rating but a massive age allowance.
In fact, only Royal Opera and Toshi have won an unrestricted handicap at class-4 or higher. But, though Royal Opera’s weight mark looks good, he’s only ever met his own age group before and this step into all-aged handicap company is a tough ask.
I fancy Kingdom Of Munster. He was thought good enough to contest the Fred Winter at Cheltenham (eighth) and, after two runs back in November, has been dropped 6lb down to his festival mark.
The Fahey stable won the last running of this race with a hurdles maiden like Kingdom of Munster, a tasty 11.5 on Betdaq this morning.
There’s a class-3 handicap hurdle (2.00) at Taunton, too. It’s worth less but is better quality: three of the runners have already scored at this level. In theory, sifting them should be easier because they have to stay 3m plus.
Of the exposed horses, Cantabilly and Pavillon Bleu have never won beyond around 2m 3f but Magic Marmalade, though the same age, and with the same winning trip on his CV, is very lightly raced under Rules, ran on well at Newbury last time and has Richard Johnson on board.
Bellflower Boy set up a sequence last year, including a 3m hurdle of class 3, but has to bounce back after finishing tailed off, or nearly so, in his three recent races after pulling up on the reappearance.
They’re claiming off Fox Appeal, who has a big weight for a four-year-old, and off Calico Rose, who will need to settle, stepped up in trip.
We have learned that, when Paul Nicholls claims off them with Harry Derham, it’s a whole different ball game, and CD-winner of a year or so ago, Prince Tom has returned with two decent runs, one aiming too high in a Graded race.
Whispering Jack has also tried a higher grade but his two wins have both come on a sound surface, and my best outsider would have to be Benbens, who has struggled over 16 and 17 furlongs: by Beneficial out of an Over The River mare, he is bred for today’s step up in trip for a yard noted for marathon success at this game.
Back to Musselburgh for the nap, and a choice between Vosges (1.20) and Dizzy River (1.50), both clear in their market early doors.
Dizzy River is down in grade and back to his winning trip and should carry top weight on ground not too soft. Vosges had shaken off all opposition in the Daq market, making him a banker (maximum stakes) price to yield my customary 20 points and I didn’t fancy that in a beginners’ chase.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win (nap) DIZZY RIVER (1.50 Musselburgh)
BET 7pts win PRINCE TOM and 2.2pts win BENBENS (2.00 Taunton)
BET 1.9pts win and place KINGDOM OF MUNSTER, and 1pt win (stakes saver) ROYAL OPERA (2.20 Musselburgh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double VOSGES (1.20) and DIZZY RIVER (1.50), both at Musselburgh.
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