This afternoon’s meeting at Ayr has been abandoned due to safety concerns.
Clerk of the course Emma Marley gave the meeting the go-ahead following a 7.15am inspection due to the threat of rain.
However, while the ground is raceable, high winds in the area have taken their toll.
The PA system at the course is not working and officials have called off the meeting due to concerns about the safety of the crowd.
DAQMAN RETURNS TOMORROW
FOLLOW THE BETDAQ MARKET: That’s how it worked out yesterday, and that’s what will bring you in from the cold, says Daqman. Ayr has survived without an inspection but the ground is soft-heavy.
We’ve been lucky so far. With the weather I mean. But it’s hard work today ploughing through the mud, head down, facing winds up to 80 mph. And that’s only the punter walking from the paddock!
It’s much safer at home on line with Betdaq, with results mostly known to the market, as yesterday’s returns in heavy ground reveal.
Ayr: two favourites and three second favourites won; Folkestone: three favourites and two second favourites; Plumpton: three favourites and two second favourites. With only one or two exceptions, betting followed the forecasts.
Seemingly not much point then trying to find flaws with Cadore (12.35) and Edge Of Town (1.05), which kept an odds-on hold of the markets early doors.
But the eight-runner handicap chase (1.35) had a different look to the betting forecast, with Celian only narrowly holding his position at the front of the grid, where five horses not four were all vying for trade, separated by 1.4 points.
Correspondingly, the three others in the race – all maidens – were dogs on a raft, drifted right out, so that the overround was good, despite such tight competition at the front of the market.
Celian is the obvious eye-catcher, still 11lb lower than his penultimate chase success after winning on heavy off a very low mark at Hexham.
With form figures before that of RP4P-P, he looks very unreliable, and a rare visitor to the winner’s enclosure – last two successes 11 and 12 months apart – but closer inspection of his CV reveals that, on ground returned with heavy in the description, his form is 10U11.
Something Silver has had no fewer than 24 races at Ayr, and has won there four times, once on heavy. Sammy Spiderman is another Ayr specialist with 10 runs there, but is much more at home on heavy, with six in such conditions for form figures of OP1141.
Martin Todhunter’s horses have dropped out of the picture since Celian’s win and he has a poor overall strike rate at Ayr (4%), compared with Alistair Whillans’ 21% for chases.
So I decided to take 5.9 Sammy Spiderman, with a stakes saver on Celian at 4.5. I could have dutched them but backing both would have reduced me to a very short priced offensive, and I don’t bet very big at minor meetings.
For you at home, however, my rules remain the same: for record purposes, Sammy Spiderman has 4pts win (to profit by 20pts if he scores) and Celian 1.1pts win to cover the bet on ‘Sammy’.
Celian certainly seems to represent the Todhunter yard’s entire chasing success at Ayr but I just doubt his ability to put two races together.
Eight runners again in the 2.10 (a 3m 1f chase), so a reminder that you have three chances of a place. I thought there were only five in with real chances in Celian’s race, so you were looking at 60% probability for a place return.
Here, in a 109% book of offers, Boris The Blade was the dog on a raft, with Blazing Diva and Sergeant Pink ‘over the weir’ ahead of him; not wanted; not seen with a chance.
If that’s right – and we are assuming the markets aren’t wrong in the heavy – then we are in a punter-friendly underround for five of the field.
Maybe that should read ’four’, since Outlaw Tom has run two out of two poor races on heavy and is currently 7lb higher than past winning form on the soft. He takes out 9%, so I’m convinced there is money to be made but what is the best first position?
Soul Angel has the featherweight but, in fact, has never won off this high a rating (97). His heavy-ground form at Ayr is 0321000.
Posh Bird is 0-27 under Rules, though did win a Point on heavy and was runner-up in the Ulster Grand National. Ayr form: 00.
What’s Up Woody is 9lb higher than for his chase win at Carlisle in March but won over hurdles on heavy.
Not long before that Negus De Beaumont was running an excellent second to Captain Americo at Newcastle but the handicapper has given up on him: in response to poor form since that day, he’s been dropped suddenly and steeply from 123 (November) to 108.
But he’s with a stable known to have bad patches and to come good at this time of year; moreover the trainers of the three others I’ve short-listed have poor Ayr records. Bit each way ’Negus:’ 6.4. But could end up as a speculative nap on such a bad day.
There are 10 left in the handicap hurdle as I write, with a punter-friendly 107% book of offers. Only Daniel’s Dream and Arc Warrior seemingly had no chance but I quickly deleted Charming Knight, a maiden (0-18) for a stable which hasn’t had a winner in 417 days.
Since Charming Knight is second favourite as I write, it must be a poor race that won’t take much winning.
The negatives mount up against It’s Tough: top weight; without a run for more than 18 months; kept to good ground most of the time, and well beaten on soft-heavy.
Harry Handsome has more or less tailed off most starts; and Stormion’s drop back in trip is unlikely to help a son of Flemensfirth out of a Le Moss mare; I would have thought doubling the trip might be more appropriate.
Sydney Cove is with a stable which has had five long years of losers on this course (42 also rans), and connections of Man Of Principles (0-20 under Rules) have drawn a complete blank at Ayr from 10 starters.
So it is that I’m with the two mares, See The Legend (10.5, at time of writing), third on today’s course in today’s conditions and bred for today’s trip, and Shoal Bay Dreamer (4.4), a close second at Carlisle on the soft, and the potential improver at aged six.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win SAMMY SPIDERMAN and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) CELIAN (1.35 Ayr)
BET 3.7pts win and place (nap) NEGUS DE BEAUMONT (2.10 Ayr)
BET 2.1pts win and place SEE THE LEGEND and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) SHOAL BAY DREAMER (3.15 Ayr)
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