KAUTO COULD STAR AT BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman spots yet another value offer on Betdaq: Kauto Stone is best priced on the exchange compared with fixed-odds books on the big race at Ascot later this month.
There’ll never be another Kauto Star. But Kauto Stone is making rapid headway as a young chaser, and this month could see him go top of the pile.
In his first race for Paul Nicholls after coming over from France, he landed a Grade-2, recording a rating of around 148 in defeating the smart Punchestown winner, Roi Du Mee.
But the handicapper was right to put him on a notional 162 the day he ran second to Champion Chase hero, Sizing Europe, in the Tingle Creek, since he got within eight lengths of the 177-rated winner.
Even 162 puts him in second place in the rankings for the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot on Saturday week behind the one-paced Somersby but already in front of the race favourite, Finian’s Rainbow, by 5lb.
The bookies generally go 2-1 Finians Rainbow but 9-2 and 5-1 Kauto Stone, 6-1 in a place if you have the right account, but fear not.
It’s Betdaq to the rescue again with offers this morning of 8.8 Kauto Stone, massively ahead of the game. I think that’s value worth taking.
At Leicester today, Phar Again (1.40 Leicester) bids for a repeat in the handicap chase with Leicester form figures at this time of the year of 3112.
The snag is he’s 10lb higher than his last winning mark and I can pass on a strong word for Edgebury, who has turned to chasing late in life but, on breeding, ought to make up into a chaser.
He performed well enough in his first chase a fortnight ago after a consistent 2011 over hurdles.
Tom George spoils the race for punters by engaging Paddy Brennan for Moscow Chancer, which seems to make the more obvious choice, Morenito, the second string.
The result in the market this morning was for Morenito and Moscow Chancer to be offered around the same price so that, in effect, it was odds-on Tom George and 2.66 Edgebury.
Nicky Henderson won the novices’ chase (3.10) last year and must have every chance with Larks Lad today. Soir D’Estruval performed well enough on his first chase but has to improve, and this is Valid Point’s debut over fences.
It’s hard to see any of them getting to Baile Anrai (3.10), runner-up to Fingal Bay in a Graded hurdles in October and a runaway winner on another right-handed track with undulations, Towcester.
I could be accused of playing with fire yesterday. I went on the attack with 62 points of weekend profit in the bank but fell foul of what is so often the case these days: horses are not what they seem in the form book and I should have been guessing what they might be and how much was hidden.
Playing With Fire (3.40) is two runs two wins on heavy ground at Leicester and must be a bet at 8.8 this morning in a race with few decent protagonists.
But first time in a handicap, Mahfal, is the ‘hidden’ one, the dark horse, for a stable doing well and with a claimer bringing his weight down, out of the handicap.
He could receive three stone from Ruby Crown and Playing With Fire. Ruby Crown has never won off this high a mark, so I shall leave him out, and play with ‘Fire’ again.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) MAHFAL and 2.5pts win PLAYING WITH FIRE (3.40 Leicester)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT 3.8pts win KAUTO STONE (Victor Chandler Chase, Ascot, January 21).
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