PIPE EARLY-DOORS GAMBLE: Painter Man, trained by David Pipe, shot to the front of the Betdaq offers on the handicap hurdle at Leicester today, with the blinkers back on.
It’s worse than I thought. My anorak says that the percentage of winning favourites is down overall this season but that Leicester today is one of the best options.
Conditions chases there are 60% and, overall, non-handicaps better than 50%. Handicap hurdles are almost one in three favourites but handicap chases are not a way to spend money blind on the Leicester market leaders.
Rate Of Knots (3.40 handicap chase) was always a false forecast ‘fav’ to me. Maybe the trade-paper compiler was just guessing that blinkers first time would make the difference but – another anorak’s note – Jonjo O’Neill’s figures are well down since Tony McCoy was injured.
Hopeful Start at Wetherby yesterday broke a losing run of 24 in the last 10 days and was Richie McLernon’s only success from his last 14 O’Neill mounts. Jonjo must be pleased with the news that McCoy intends to return on Thursday.
Glancing at Betdaq offers on my first tab, I can see Rate Of Knots drifting at just that speed: a dog on a raft, out to 9.6 at the time of writing. The one they want is Plum Pudding.
The good news for Plum Pudding punters is that the December winner at Warwick has put back-to-back wins together before and that both wins were over CD, one of them in this very race.
The bad news is that it’s two years since that happened, and Plum Pudding is 16lb higher in the ratings, hiked 7lb for that recent Warwick win.
Favourites don’t just follow the Leicester trend for handicap chases: they don’t get a look-in. The last six winners have been 33-1 (twice), 14-1 (twice), 8-1 and 13-2 last year.
One that catches the eye today is Evella; after the second of her January wins last year, she earned a place in the mares’ final at Newbury, for which she started as low as 8-1.
As a front-runner, Evella needs all her own way. If she doesn’t get it, or she hasn’t had a recent run, she goes out like a light. She led for 14 fences at Plumpton three weeks ago, and maybe she can hang on in there today: 9.8 as I write.
Tarn Hows (1.35) has skipped past top-weight Zama Zama in the market for the opener, with his recent form boosted, but I liked the look of Herecomesthehollow at Haydock.
He’s stepped up in trip, which is often a signal for an improved performance by a Twiston-Davies runner, and his breeding suggests he’s an embryonic stayer to keep on the right side: 6.8 for a bit each way.
The ‘Twiston’ team seemed to have a serious chance with Mavalenta (4.10) but you have another dog on a raft here: the mare is 11.5, as I write, heading for the betting weir.
This is in the face of the early-doors gamble of the day: Painter Man, considered an 11-1 chance in the trade paper, but with the rider ‘not dismissed with blinkers back on.’
Painter Man is 3.5 on my Betdaq tab, Mujamead 3.7 and anything you like the others after Wiesentraum. But do we want to be on a favourite in a handicap hurdle at Leicester? Well, Mujamead hasn’t won this far, and Wiesentraum hasn’t won at all!
It’s 16.5 bar three as I write about the second novice hurdle (2.40), with Tempest River gone to the front over Baby Shine; then only Zahirah Moon in single figures.
Last year at this time, Baby Shine gave weight to both and still finished in front of Tempest River and Zahirah Moon in a bumper. But Tempest River turned the form around at Aintree and it’s decidedly odd that Baby Shine – a Point winner – hasn’t been asked to jump a hurdler until today.
DAQMAN’S BET
BET 3.4pts win HERECOMESTHEHOLLOW (1.35 Leicester)
BET 10pts win (nap) TEMPEST RIVER (2.40 Leicester)
BET 2.2pts win and place EVELLA (3.40 Leicester)
BET 7.6pts win PAINTER MAN (4.10 Leicester)
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