ROYAL ASCOT: BEWARE OF SHARKS: Daqman analyses the stats for four big races at Royal Ascot next week and reveals facts and figures which suggest some horses are bad value with bookmakers and that their odds lists are ‘shark-infested waters.’
It’s not the day for Knight. The latest so-called ‘gamble’ with the bookies for Royal Ascot is Edinburgh Knight in the Hunt Cup but, if the race were run today, he would not take any of my money.
Edinburgh Knight is a horse for a sound surface and his trainer, Paul d’Arcy, admits that the current state of the ground is ‘a drawback.’
The Oddschecker list of prices for the race is shark-infested waters with, as another example, Totesport, Betfred and Sunderlands going as little as 8-1 Primaeval when you can get more than double that with BETDAQ offers (18.0 at the time of writing).
As I reported yesterday, Primaeval is another who has poor form on a soft surface and, in any case, is said to be headed for the Buckingham Palace Handicap instead. That’s why you can get more than double on the Daq!
The stats on the Hunt Cup say: take out Primaeval; in fact, take out 61 of those entries which remain at this stage. Here are the salient facts and figures:
Royal Hunt Cup Four-year-olds have won the last five Hunt Cups but are only narrowly leading five-year-olds (6-5) in the last 12 years.
The weights parameter is 8st 8lb to 9st 5lb in the dozen seasons, but handicaps nowadays get tighter and tighter and it’s harder for lightweights to get in, never mind win.
However, the actual ratings for the last nine years show a similar range – 93 to 105 – which, of the current 82 acceptors cuts out the top four and sloughs off the bottom 44.
If you then delete the older horses, leaving just those of four and five, you need theoretically concern yourself with form study of just 21 of the 82.
In doing so, err on the side of horses that have already won big-field races. Get a position in the ante-post market but be warned that you need to keep some of your powder dry until the draw is known.
Nine of the last 12 winners were from stalls no more than six away from either rail: two have come from 24 (out of 28) and 33, and five out of six recently have been installed 3 to 8, seemingly quite the vantage point for a jockey to set his mind on the mile-distant winning post.
Ascot Gold Cup: Sagaro (1975-77), Le Moss and Ardross (1979-82), Gildoran (1984-85), Sadeem (1988-89), Drum Taps (1992-93), Royal Rebel (2001-02) and Yeats (2006-09) have all won ‘gold’ more than once.
And Fame And Glory won last year at the right age to be a sequence horse: Yeats, Royal Rebel and Ardross all won first time when aged five.
However, Gildoran, Le Moss and Sagaro started their winning runs at four years old, the same age as Colour Vision and Saddler’s Rock.
It seems reasonable on those stats alone to assume that either Fame And Glory keeps the crown or young pretenders Colour Vision (third last year when only three) or Saddlers Rock (beat last year’s runner-up Opinion Poll in the Doncaster Cup) take it on the field of battle and become King Of Cups.
St James’s Palace Stakes You need a horse with a rating of 117 or more: 123 is the average; Frankel was tops in recent years with 130 last season but all 2,000 Guineas form is strong here.
Irish 2,000 Guineas winners (Power) are 5-3 up over those successful in the Newmarket version in the last decade. Winners of the Dewhurst (Parish Hall) have won three times from only six runners.
It’s not a strong renewal in 2012, with the front-of-the-market ratings as follows: Harbour Watch (117), Power (117), Daddy Long Legs (116), Parish Hall (116), Most Improved (115), Born To Sea (110), Cogito (104), Tales Of Grimm (99).
Wokingham: It’s a moderate year these days if an older horse wins: only 1 in 14 has gone to a six-year-old or higher. It’s 7-6 to five-year-olds over horses aged four in that time.
A three-year-old hasn’t won since 1987, and only one scorer has carried more than 9st 7lb since 1989, when trainer Bill O’Gorman and jockey Cash Asmussen were a combination made in heaven for the tough and magical Macs Fighter, despite the steadier of 9st 12lb (I’m still counting the money).
A ratings parameter of 95 to 102 traps nine winners in the decade and a huge 12 out of the last 14 were from stalls which were no more than seven from either rail.
So, as in the Royal Hunt Cup, by all means get a market position from your form study but keep your wallet stocked up for when the draw is known.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.4pts win KINGSWINFORD (3.00 Salisbury)
BET 1.6pts win JACASA TOO (4.35 Salisbury)
BET 2.5pts win INSTRUCTRESS (5.50 Lingfield)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) BLASÉ CHEVALIER (8.10 Southwell)
BET 4.5pts win EAGER TO BOW (9.00 Brighton)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time.
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