ECLIPSE ONE-TWO: NOW FOR THE JULY CUP: Daqman’s stats guide to the Eclipse gave winner and second from its top three. Now he looks at the form and history of Saturday’s July Cup.
A 12 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Royal Ascot meeting that year.
B Officially rated 110 to 126 (seven out of nine with listed ratings in England).
C Three-year-olds have a near-50% record with 15 of the last 32.
D Horses aged four and five have won the rest with one exception: just the one winner aged six and over in the last 63 years.
ABC Power Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, improving dramatically on Newmarket Guineas 17th of 18 behind Camelot but similar flop when 17 lengths 12th in St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Won the National Stakes on soft among four wins and two seconds as a juvenile, making his second-season inconsistency hard to understand, now dropped back to sprint trip.
ABD Bated Breath It’s no longer a Dream. At last he can breath without the stranglehold of his great rival Dream Ahead, who beat him just half a length in this July Cup last year and only nosed him out of the Haydock Sprint title in September.
But has Bated Breath’s chance abated at the age of five? His reappearance Temple Stakes success, and second in the Kings Stand, say not, and he seems equally at home on any surface other than deep.
He has the example of Fleeting Spirit (2009), the last Kings Stand runner-up to win this since Agnes World (2000), and two (Frizzante and Oasis Dream in 2003-4) both finished only third in the big Ascot sprint before coming on to take the Cup.
ABD Sirius Prospect Certainly seemed a serious prospect for sprint honours this season, after five out of six last term, stepping up from a class-4 handicap at around this time last year to win in Listed company.
But he’s yet to crack it at Group level, though he seemed to fire at last when seventh to Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee. The question is whether first-time hood and blinkers will have the same effect again.
Fifth (Continent 2002) and sixth (Marchand d’Or 2008) in the Golden Jubilee have come on to take the July Cup this century, while Les Arcs (2006) and Starspanglednbanner (2010) did the double.
ABD Society Rock Another so close – in fifth – to the eased-down Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee and probably the hard-luck story of the 2012 renewal.
Society Rock lost at Ascot by less than he gave away with a tardy start but the fact remains that his only success since April 2010 was the same Diamond Jubilee the year before on soft ground.
Beaten by Bated Breath at Haydock 14 months ago and even further behind Saturday’s rival, sixth when he was second, on the same course for the Haydock Sprint Cup in September.
ABD Soul Just in front of Society Rock in the Diamond Jubilee was another (ex-)Aussie, the 33-1 outsider Soul, a Group-2 winner at Flemington as a three-year-old but coming out of a Meydan handicap success and a Group-1 flop there to take his chance at Ascot.
The figures suggest that he raised his game several pounds, little more than a length or so behind Black Caviar but, as one that likes to lead, was run out of the big money at the business end.
ABD Strong Suit Dropping back to sprint trip for the first time since October, 2010, when, coincidentally, ran second in the Middle Park to last year’s July Cup winner, Dream Ahead.
Beat Libranno into fourth in the Lennox Stakes (7f) at Goodwood this month last year but out of his depth stepped up to a mile in the Breeders’ Cup and on reappearance behind Frankel in Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
AD Krypton Factor Yet another, close up sixth, behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot and a Group-1 winner, allowed to take his chance only because the ground was drying out that day.
That Group-1 win was in our Spring for the Golden Shaheen at Meydan, where he’d spent most of the last 21 months, and the Meydan form stands up better than usual since the fourth horse, Hitchens, was third in the July Cup last season.
AD Wizz Kid Fifth in last year’s Abbaye, Wizz Kid has always been strong in the market at, consecutively, 9-2, 3-1 and 9-2, for his three runs this year.
The confidence wasn’t misplaced in a Group 2 at Chantilly, but he was found wanting at Group-1 level in the King’s Stand (5f), just behind Ortensia, seven lengths adrift of Bated Breath.
His sole effort beyond the minimum in 15 months was at Ascot (6f) in October, well held in second, with Libranno third.
A Ortensia Another Aussie – some say second only to Black Caviar at home – she avoided her illustrious compatriot mare, and was saddled for the Kings Stand as 9-2 joint favourite but could finish only ninth (got jumpy before the race).
A Group-1 winner over 6f at home but considered better at five, and looked at home when, albeit getting weight, she stopped Sole Power, with another Group-1 winner third, at Meydan in March.
BC Fire Lily Three-year-olds have a tremendous record in this, and she stepped out of her bridesmaid clothes to land the Group-3 Ballyogan (6f) last time out.
But, before that, it was second, second, second, second: in the Lowther, Moyglare, Marcel Boussac and Irish 1,000 Guineas. Seems lily-livered and needs more fire for this one.
BD Hoof It Looked a Group horse in a handicap when storming clear in the Stewards Cup last July but has fallen short at the highest level.
Only fifth at York and Newmarket (to Libranno recently), despite the promise of a narrow third in the Haydock Sprint in September.
Hoof It was a nose and a head behind last year’s July Cup one-two, Dream Ahead and Bated Breath, that day on firmish ground, and has never won with ‘soft’ in any way associated with the returned going.
BD Libranno Fourth in this July Cup to Dream Ahead and Bated Breath last year after cutting out much of the pace.
Won his third Group 3 since his juvenile days over the July Cup CD at the end of last month, when a ring-rusty Hoof It ran only fifth of seven. Would not want it too soft.
BD Mayson Back-to-back big-race double in the Abernant and Palace House (Group 3) but has lost the plot since, behind Society Rock, Hoof It and Sirius Prospect at York and probably all at sea on ‘’heavy’ at Newcastle.
BD Sepoy Godolphin has had 45 winners in GB in 2012 against 148, 133 and 139 in the three previous years. A lot of catching up to do.
The same can be said of another Aussie buy, Sepoy, who was well adrift in the Golden Shaheen and needs to demonstrate that 10 wins from 11 starts Down Under suggest under performing at Meydan and not the downgrading of the Aussie sprint form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
Daqman finished on the right side by just under six points yesterday, thanks to Athenian (WON 3-1). His selections for today are:
BET 3pts win PICKWORTH (7.45 Uttoxeter)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) TUNNAGER GROVE (8.35 Southwell)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by the individual stake, you will know the Betdaq offer he took at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
