15.0 VALUE BET WINS AT 10-1 FOR DAQMAN: When Fresa (WON 10-1 from 15.0 on Betdaq) scored at Ayr yesterday, it meant that Daqman would stay in front at all meetings, with his stakes so arranged that one winner would carry the day.
THAT ‘TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE’ FEELING: But the massive value on Betdaq probably cost him a big-odds nap, as his readers followed his search for a best bet. Says Daqman: ‘There are such good offers in the morning when I do my tipping that sometimes you get that too good to be true feeling.’
SO WHAT’S HIS ADVICE? ‘As I did in my column yesterday, you must take a first position on the race if you see such superb value,’ writes Daqman. ‘Price up the horses and, when there’s something bigger than you think it should be, that’s value.’
ABC GUIDE TO THE KING GEORGE: Today Daqman takes you through Saturday’s King George, checking out the stats horse by horse:
A Four years old (4yo are 8-2 up over 3yo in the last decade)
B Group-1 or Grade-1 winner (9 out of 10)
C The favourite (six out of seven)
D Trained by Sir Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien (four in a row)
E First or second last time out (10 out of 12)
The word is out for Workforce. If I’d done this ABC guide yesterday morning, only St Nicholas Abbey would have been given a ‘C’ for filling the favourite’s spot. But then the money poured in for Workforce, after a smart appearance on the gallops.
Now, as the pair vie for market leader, there’s every chance that last year’s Derby winner will take over, and it’s joint favs now in places, so I’ve awarded a ‘C’ to both.
Despite the defection of Derby horses to the Grand Prix – in which they were all beaten by Meandre – the King George field is a fascinating contest, with Rewilding a good colt on his day and Nathaniel the likely improver of the race, still relatively unexposed after only five runs.
ABCDE St Nicholas Abbey The horse that came back from the dead. The soft-ground Racing Post winner of 2009 was ‘buried’ by Makfi in the 2,000 Guineas of 2010 when evens favourite.
Rested for a year, he couldn’t even win a Listed on his return to action at The Curragh in April, again on soft ground, and this time 11-4 on favourite. But Ballydoyle never lost faith.
St Nicholas Abbey burst back on to the scene with a nine-length power drive down the short Chester straight to win the Ormonde Stakes and was back on the Group-1 dais with defeat of Midday by a length in the Coronation Cup.
Both at Chester and at Epsom, he was awash with sweat, awkward to saddle and excitable and, with his history of a sudden dip in form, was allowed to start even money in the Coronation, though there were only four opponents and only one, Midday, carried any clout.
ABCDE Workforce Just when you think it’s safe to back this horse as a champion, he goes belly up, finishing only fifth of six in last year’s King George after winning the Derby.
But, just when you think you can write him off, he comes good at a massive price for a Derby winner (6-1) and beats the cracks in the Arc de Triomphe.
Now the wheel has turned full circle: reappearing with a Group-3 win, he failed again when stepping back into the Group-1 arena, turned over by So You Think (stablemate of St Nicholas Abbey) in the Eclipse.
ABE Rewilding: A late livewire for the 2010 Derby as winner of the old Predominate, he found Workforce more than seven lengths too good at Epsom.
Returned to form in the Great Voltigeur, he once more became a live contender, this time for the St Leger, but he was beaten again on the big occasion, only sixth of 10, at even-money favourite.
His first Group 1 came in the Sheema Classic this Spring, which didn’t impress so that he was allowed to start 17-2 for the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot but he outran So You Think under an inspired Frankie Dettori ride.
BE Midday: Beaten a head in the 2009 Oaks but won the Nassau and then, in 2010, raced to a Group-1 treble, via the Nassau again, plus the Yorkshire Oaks and the Vermeille.
Outgunned by St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup this summer, she was at her most disappointing, failing to pick up in the Curragh straight, when slammed six lengths by the three-year-old Misty For Me in the Pretty Polly.
B Debussy: Pacemaker for Rewilding, though it didn’t quite work out like that when Rewilding won at Ascot and Debussy trailed in 155 lengths behind. He’s a Group-1 winner in his own right, the Arlington Million last August.
DE Seville: Casamento (Racing Post Trophy), Carlton House (Dante), Treasure Beach (Irish Derby) and Meandre (Grand Prix) have all pushed him into second place, as the bridesmaid of the current Classic generation.
E Nathaniel: Though only a head behind subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase, and winner by a mile of the Group-2 Ascot ‘Derby’ – the King Edward V11 Stakes – Nathaniel has no Group 1 wins on a CV of only five appearances.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) COMMANCHE (3.00 Musselburgh)
BET 7.8pts win CRYSTAL HIGH (3.15 Yarmouth)
BET 4.4pts win CLEVER OMNEYA (9.00 Southwell)
