NOW THE IRON MAN CORNERS THE MARKET: As top Flat jockeys Frankie Dettori and Kieren Fallon struggle out in the cold, iron-man Tony McCoy sees Paul Nicholls added to his array of rides from Jonjo O’Neill and Nicky Henderson, which keep him on top of the jumps game.
ON THE FLAT: DAQMAN spots a couple of projects at Lingfield Park. Two exposed runners look worth opposing in two maiden races.
If you can’t beat them join them.. or buy into them! In his bid to maintain control of the big jumps prizemoney, J P McManus has his first runner today with English champion trainer, Paul Nicholls.
This new liaison also means we are likely to see Tony McCoy joining Ruby Walsh among the jockeys on Ditcheat winners. McCoy already rides for Nicky Henderson as well as taking the McManus mounts and many others for Jonjo O’Neill, so his continued reign as NH champion seems trebly assured.
At a time when great Flat riders like Frankie Dettori and Kieren Fallon are freelance, searching for crumbs from the top owners, old iron man McCoy strides on down the jumps tracks like a colossus taking the McManus pick of three leading stables.
You don’t need underground information to fancy the first Nicholls-McManus runner: Mr Mole (2.40 Exeter) is built for a middle-distance chasing career but was nippy enough to take a bumper.
Such a winner first time over hurdles for the Ditcheat winner-factory could normally be odds on, would almost certainly be favourite. But there was 3.35 on BETDAQ this morning, because Melodic Rendezvous was placed in top bumper company at Punchestown and heads today’s market, as I write.
Novice hurdles are hard enough for punters; beginners chases have even bigger obstacles in the way. The Ditcheat runner in the first of them is Rebel Rebellion (3.10), ridden by Ruby Walsh. So we have McCoy and Walsh today, riding for the same top outfit.
This beginners’ chase could be a kingmaker. Previous winners include Tataniano for Paul Nicholls and Alan King’s Sir Harry Ormesher. Both won on their debut over the bigger obstacles. It’s a tough launch, facing the Haldon fences.
The two top yards clash in the race again today, with Nicholls having trained the winner three times in seven years. But I’m bound to wonder why he’s fielding a seven-year-old.
That’s a bit old for a chasing debut and, in fact, most years, a five-year-old wins this race; that age group is 5-2 up over six-year-olds. Rebel Rebellion has had only seven races under Rules: on the one hand that gives him a right to be starting out late; on the other hand, it’s a worry that his races are so spaced out: he keeps having time off – 367 days this time – and I just can’t trust him.
Bold Henry probably has a future – maybe a big one – but, as a Kayf Tara, you would think that future will be over three miles or so. Module won a decent hurdle at Cheltenham on his first run in England and is dueling for favouritism this morning with Bold Heny.
But I’m having a bit each way on the Alan King runner, Pantxoa (10.5 on BETDAQ). He always had the look of a chaser to me and has these form figures of 112 first time or after a break. And ‘Kingy’ has these figures for his last seven runners: 2143214. Nothing out of the frame.
As a brother to Tell Massini, the second Paul Nicholls’ beginner, Rocky Creek (4.40) may also be a horse of substance, a staying type, and this time he gets his 3m straight away. So I don’t think Ruby Walsh’s trip to Somerset will be wasted.
While I’m potting long shots and finishing in the black almost every Saturday, my midweek game has been about hitting the cushion and miscueing, particularly in the novice events. But I think I can go in off Rocky Creek, in off his previously finishing in front of the favourite, Gullinbursti.
Gullinbursti wins when fresh but Emma Lavelle currently doesn’t win: her strike rate is a lowly 1-17 right now and the front pair also have Harry Topper to beat, with Kim Bailey’s yard on a high, leading the Trainerspot list in the trade paper, getting the top return from his horses.
Lingfield’s refurbished Polytrack surface received a big thumbs when the track resumed racing last week. However, the surface is still standard to slow whilst it ‘beds down’.
It’s testimony to how far all-weather racing has come that a midweek maiden, such as the 3.30 today, has attracted runners from the Gosden, Godolphin, Ed Dunlop, Tregoning and Hannon stables. I approached this race wanting to take on Ormindo the BETDAQ market leader as I think he has had plenty of chances (in races that might well prove weaker than todays) but I’m struggling to make a case for any of the lighter raced horses. It becomes which horse will improve most from it’s debut and would probably dutch Manazel and Mazaaher against the favourite for low stakes.
Medici Dancer went agonisingly close to landing the nap on Monday. She traded at 1.02 and looked set for the win before being re-headed on the line. Countryman is my nap today. Hughie Morrison’s runner stepped up on his Newbury debut to finish fourth at Kempton last time and this race looks well within his reach. Second favourite The Black Jacobin is becoming disappointing. He steps down in class but is also making his all-weather debut and I’d want to take him on.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) COUNTRYMAN (2.30 Lingfield)
BET 3.6pts win MR MOLE (2.40 Exeter)
BET 2.2pts win PANTXOA (3.10 Exeter)
BET 1.5pts win on each MANAZEL and MAZAAHER 3.30 Lingfield)
LAY 10pts GULLINBURSTI and BET 4.6pts win HARRY TOPPER and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) ROCKY CREEK (4.40 Exeter)
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