‘HARRY’ IS HENNESSY VALUE AT 24.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman today tilts at Saturday’s Hennessy with a jackpot bet on 24.0 BETDAQ offer Harry The Viking, as part of his review of the horses-to-follow lists in his columns of 12 and 13 November.
24 OUT OF 30 NAPS ARE PLACED: Daqman’s naps tally is seven from the last nine to complete the course. Despite two recent fallers, 24 out of the last 30 selections have finished in the first three.
The Hennessy market suggests another Nicholls-Henderson battle. But, though Nicky Henderson currently has the favourite, the Newbury race could see Paul Nicholls extend his lead in the trainers’ table with an outsider.
In a handicap depressed by the same stable’s top weight, I shall take the 24.0 on BETDAQ Harry The Viking, looking a mighty threat to all off only 10st 2lb
The Cheltenham NH Chase runner-up should get the ground he needs, as rain and mild November weather turn to the crisp, dry days of December.
His PP form figures since Cheltenham don’t tell us that Harry The Viking was over the top in the Scottish National (first P) and made a single, but costly, error in his first run back (second P).
I wasn’t the only one pleased with Raya Star at the weekend. Trainer Alan King says the horse ran ‘a mighty race’ and wants to target the Relkeel Hurdle in three weeks’ time.
We’re talking a race at Cheltenham which has produced Oscar Whisky, Zaynar, Mighty Man and Lough Derg in recent years.
Obviously, Kingy hopes to swerve Oscar Whisky who had him eight lengths in rear on Saturday but the result means that Raya Star has risen 17lb this year and has Graded form of 3012, right on the edge of greatness and needing only to continue improvement at the age of six.
Meanwhile, the stable may now send West End Rocker to Chepstow for the Welsh National over Christmas, instead of the Becher Chase at Aintree.
I need Fairyhouse to be on this weekend. I want to see my Monksland and Tarla (could run Saturday instead) in the Hattons Grace Hurdle on Sunday.
Boston Bob, who also has an alternative on Saturday, may take in Sunday’s Drinmore. He might even switch to Thurles on Thursday if it were known that Fairyhouse would be doubtful. Also with a Thursday date – at Newbury – is Highland Lodge.
Whatever happens in England – shall we see Cinders And Ashes in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth? – Ireland continues to be the source of trial (and error) for big-name stars, with Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs on course to clash in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown on Sunday week (December 9).
Check out my horses to follow in the Archive over the two days, Monday and Tuesday, 12 and 13 November. They’re ahead of the game at the mo, thanks to Gevrey Chambertin and Silviniano Conti, and I think I’ll stick with them until Christmas.
If tempted to add one at this stage, it would have to be Easter Day. Paul Nicholls’ eyes absolutely lit up in the gloomy stands of a rainy Saturday at Ascot when that one ‘tonked’ a brace of hot challengers in the market trained by arch-rivals Jonjo O’Neill and the same N. Henderson.
He came upsides at the last and the race read like we’d have a fight on our hands on the run-in. No way. Easter Day found another gear and went clear. That’s 2m 6f on the soft at the age of four. The new Big Buck’s?
My idea yesterday of a place bet in the Snake Eyes race didn’t come off, in terms of the bet I had (but don’t forget Shady Lane on better ground) but in terms of value piled on value, it was sensational.
The surprise 25-1 winner was 65.0 at one stage when I checked it out a few minutes before the ‘off’ as the ‘book’ of offers wavered between 100 and 101%, a fabulous level playing-field for punters.
With Snake Eyes long odds on, the bookies could afford to let similar slack out. Not on your life. While exchange offers were up to 1000.0 in the super-punter-friendly 100% listing, they were money-grubbing as ever.
Though BETDAQ was 150.0 bar four, the bookies had only one horse at 100-1. Piano Concerto was almost double the bookies’ 6-1 at 12.0. Bincombe was 28.0 alongside fixed-odds of 10-1, and my Shady Lane was 55.0 and 60.0.
That, you might say, would be merely academic had the long-odds-on shot won, but it didn’t. That, too, can be put down as ‘well, they usually win, don’t they!’
But hang on a minute, my friend. According to my humble ready -reckoner, if I can get 64-1 about a 25-1 shot every time, I have 39 extra chances of winning. I can have 63 losers and still finish in front; you have only 24 at SP.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.9pts win and place MANSHOOR (2.30 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double HOLLOW PENNY (nap, 1.30 Lingfield) and PENSNETT BAY (3.00 Lingfield)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 1.7pts win HARRY THE VIKING (Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury Saturday)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake), though jackpot bets are bigger stakes for a bigger return and Daq Multiples are as stated.
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